Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards, with 7 victories between them, it would seem to be the obvious picks for this race. Not this time. Based on what I’ve seen so far, I look for a different kind of race and a different kind of result.

Breaking development: Kyle Busch brushed the wall on pit road this morning, damaging his car badly enough that he will go to his back-up car. This will force Kyle to the back of the field, and in this race that is so reliant on good starting position, his job becomes all the more difficult. I also think he’s going to be dead dog tired tomorrow, and he could very become a victim of additional bad luck. The good new for Shrub is his dominating start. The kind of lead he has in the points affords the younger Busch a little more latitude and the luxury of shanking a race or two.

A “dark horse” could emerge. Joe Nemecheck, Mark Martin and A.J. Allmendinger all qualified very well yesterday and at this oddly shaped track where speed matters, position will be important. Mark my words, with good seat time, Allmendinger may become the next David Ragan- a guy who will get better and really contend with experience. It’s hard to believe “The Kid” has never won here, and starting at the 3rd position puts Martin in an excellent position. Martin is definitely the class of DEI this season and has some some brilliant runs lately.

There are drivers who’ve won here before who should not be counted out. Jeff Gordon’s won 4 Pocono races, Bobby Labonte has 3 to his record. These boys are among my favorites, but I think they have too far to go to win it. Running from the outside pole, I like Jimmie Johnson’s chances. I see a top 5 run for the Lowe’s 48. Denny Hamlin will represent JGR nicely. Denny swept the 2006 races, and he’s looking good in morning practice. Kurt Busch won the summer race at Pocono in 2007, and he’s running better since the All-Star race. The 11th spot in the line-up certainly puts him in contention.

While Edwards looks good in morning practice and Dale Earnhardt Jr. tested well here earlier, I’m going with Kasey Kahne. I’m generally not one to pick drivers from the pole, but Kahne (the wreck at Dove aside) has been on a roll, and he’s been crazy fast. The Dodge ”9″ hasn’t been exceptional in morning practice, but it looks like they’re just doing a little experimenting today.

I like how the folks at Gillett Evernham have put it together this year. Kahne’s winning, Elliott Sadler has been qualifying well (now if he can only translate that into effective racing) and Patrick Carpentier has had to get into eery race on speed, and he’s been doing it, only not making rain has set the field according to points. No doubt Ray Evernham’s concentration on the racing side, freed up due to the partnership with George Gillett.

They’ve got it together right now.

Kahne will be no ordinary “citizen” this week (obligitory pop reference inserted here- just to show I’m “cultured”).

Tags: A.J. Allmendinger, Carl Edwards, Elliott Sadler, Jimmie Johnson, Joe Nemechek, Kasey Kahne, Kurt Busch, Kyle Busch, Mark Martin, Pocono 500, Race predictions

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