This a lot more art than it is science. Given that, I am impressed that the vast majority of the TV broadcast crew successfully picked Carl Edwards to win at Texas over Junior. Oh well, at least D.W. agreed with me- which depending on who you are is either good or bad.

Phoenix is a one mile track with a short track feel. There’s not as much banking here. So I’m thinking raw engine power won’t be as much of a factor. Given the short track feel, I’m also thinking that like many others, track position will be important to avoid the crashers at the back of the pack.

You also have to factor history into the equation. 3 active drivers have won two Cup races here: Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Burton, and Kevin Harvick. All three have enjoyed a good start to their 2008 season- with Burton at the top of the standings, Harvick right behind his RCR teammate and Jr. in 4th. Pretty safe to say they’ll be factors. By way of information, it should be noted that Tony Stewart, Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Mark Martin, and Bill Elliott have also seen victory lane at Phoenix. The victories will certainly give you some indication of a driver’s mastery of the track, but that doesn’t mean everything. I mean it’s safe to say no one is expecting Elliott to win with the #21 Ford (his PIS victory came in 1989) barely got in. I also have slight doubts about Martin winning, too. Oh, his #8 DEI Chevy has the potential to RUN well, but it DOEs help to know Martin’s win came while employed by Jack Roush. So, before using past wins as a measuring stick, it pays to drill a little deeper and consider the conditions under which a driver won.

So, I suppose you also have to factor in the “new” car factor. There have been two previous races at Phoenix using the car formerly known as the “CoT.” That narrows the list of winners here down to Gordon and Johnson. It’s important to know this, because I think any serious fan will agree this car is a different breed of cat. There’s not a ton of history on this car, but there is more of a track record at PIS.

There is also plenty of other statistical abstract you can fall back on- if you use “Driver Rating”- Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick, Jeff Gordon, Kurt Busch and Tony Stewart have the highest track rating at Phoenix in that order. The formula is as tricky as quarterback efficiency rating in the NFL. All I’ll say is the formula looks good and the drivers on this list look impressive to me.

I’m also becoming convinced that qualifying position is overrated. Oh, don’t get me wrong, it’s better to start up front and get a good run going in the clean air than to have 40 schmoes in front of you, some of whom may have any number of things wrong with their cars, or even their heads from time to time. But let’s face it, do you REALLY think Elliott Sadler will hold that #2 position all race long? Starting track position cannot offset equipment problems, or less than brilliant driving skills. I don’t mean to be harsh- but there are reasons, perhaps several that may explain why Jeff Gordon has 81 wins and Kenny Schrader (as good as he is) hasn’t won a race since George H.W. Bush was President.

But for all of that, you can’t figure just plain dumb luck. No less than Richard Petty said that some of his mind boggling 27 wins in 1967 were plain old luck. We’ ve all seen it: some days, you just have one bad part. Sometimes you just happen to be in the wrong place when the driver in front of you loses it. Sometimes you’re the windshield, sometimes you’re the bug.

I suppose I’ve said all this to let you know I just don’t draw names out of a hat, or that I pull my predictions out of my……..nose. I suppose I’m defensive about this because I’ve come close often this season, but I’m well on my way to becoming the Dave Blaney of NASCAR forecasting. Now that’s not the worst thing in the world, but I WANT BETTER RESULTS.

At the end of the day, it’s all about having fun and starting a lively discussion, maybe even a little smack. But, given my competitive nature, it’s more fun when you’re right.

I know what you’re thinking…”So who’s gonna win already!!!!!”

Going as much as anything from the gut, I predict that:

JIMMIE JOHNSON WILL WIN AT PHOENIX.

Why? He’s won at Phoenix in the Car of Tomorrow, with 33 Cup victories and 2 Cup titles, he’s a proven winner and most of all…..he’s very pissed off and is smart enough to know how to channel that frustration. Driving for HMS- the New York Yankees of NASCAR- doesn’t hurt.

 

  

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