NASCAR Stocks: A New #1 Is Crowned!
Tuesday, April 29th, 2008 by Jim Mc Coy
This will be a more difficult group to rank as some unusual suspects had great finishes at Talladega- with many of our top 10 dropping back.
Here’s my take. I’d be interested to see what you think of my conclusions. This was a difficult top 10 to assess.
#10- Kevin Harvick (down 1 from 9th)- “Happy” is still living off of his early season work. His 24th place finish hurt him. Harvick continues a slump that has seen him not crack the top 10 in a race since Bristol. He’s got a gaggle of drivers cooling his heels, but the Californian still has a better overall “body of work” than the others who just missed the cut.
#9- Greg Biffle (up from 10th)- Â The driver of the #16 Ford Fusion didn’t exactly shower himself in glory with his 18th at Talladega, but if “Biff” goes, Harvick goes too. To show you how weird Sunday’s results were, Biffle still gained two spots in the Cup standings, despite his pedestrian finish. But then again, given the kind of race you get on a restrictor plate track, it may well be argued that ANY finish in the top 30 should be viewed as a good one. The Roush veteran did make some nice runs Sunday.
#8- Tony Stewart (down 1 from 7th)- “Big Orange” deserves better than this. Stewart led for 61 laps, tops at last Sunday’s donnybrook. this is a classic case of a driver with a better performance than his numbers indicate. The good news for “The Rushville Rocket” is that the cream always rises to the top and there’s plenty ‘o’ season left.
#7- Carl Edwards (down 4 from 3rd)- Before you castigate me for this ranking, look who’s ahead of him. It just shows you the ever so slight degree of separation between the top drivers in this season where parity is the rule of the day- at least among the top racers. It’s mind-boggling in a way that the leader in wins for 2008 lands here. The Missourian’s DNF wasn’t even his fault- the result of faulty camber leading to his demise.
#6- Clint Bowyer (up 2 from 8th)- The “07″ is modeling remarkable consistency. Teammate Jeff Burton must be rubbing off on him. The driver of the Jack Daniels’ Chevy has 6 top 10s, tying him for 2nd with Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin and Jeff Burton among our power poll drivers. Bowyer has finished no worse than 10th since finishing 28th at Las Vegas. A win and some top 5s (Bowyer’s only has two compared to 4 each for messrs. Hamlin, Edwards and Jimmie Johnson. Kyle Busch has 5) would help vault the 3rd year Cup driver higher. I wouldn’t be surprised if that comes along soon.
#5- Jimmie Johnson (down 3 from 2nd)- This is no reflection on his Talladega performance of 13th. Well, maybe it is. When you look at the top 4, you’ll understand. Johnson still has an average finish of 7.6 over his last 5 races (including his Phoenix victory), only Bowyer, Burton and Hamlin are better.
#4- Dale Earnhardt Jr.- (up 1 from 5th). I came darn close to putting “Lil ‘E’” in 3rd. Having led 46 laps, we have another guy who came ooooh so close. Junior’s 7 top 10s pace all Cup drivers. He just needs a win. Ya gotta believe Earnhardt will get it soon, ending a 71-race dry spell.
#3- Jeff Burton- (down 2 from 1st). J.B. is the quietest stud on the circuit. Only Denny Hamlin has a better average finish over the last 5 races, and the Sprint Cup points leader has the best average finish overall for the 2008. So why isn’t Burton hanging on to the top spot? Permit me to explain….
#2- Denny Hamlin- (up 2 from 4th). The driver of the FedEx “11″ is NASCAR’s hottest driver. Consider these numbers, and you’ll see why the Virginian has vaulted past the likes of Johnson and Burton. Hamlin has his win at Martinsville, an average finish of 3.6 (!) over his last 5, and 6 top 10s. Remember, Hamlin started out at 28th after California. While teammate Kyle Busch is more spectacular, the numbers seem to indicate that Hamlin has been a little more consistent. Since that 41st place disaster at Fontana (caused by track moisture), Hamlin has been no worse than 15th.
#1- Kyle Busch (up 5 from 6th)- “Shrub” has a performance more uneven than the stock market. That said, you can’t ignore 2 wins and the fact that even when he finishes poorly, he’ still been a factor in every race he’s run. Add to that the fact he has 5 top 5s and 6 top 10s. Just short of his 23rd birthday, Kurt’s younger brother has led the way in a NASCAR youth movement towards domination that also includes teammate Denny Hamlin, Clint Bowyer and Carl Edwards. Of course, with youth comes inconsistency, so don’t be too alarmed if he falls to 10th next week.
This is a tight group at the top. ALL of these guys are legitimate Chase threats. To me, this is what is making 2008 a great season.
Ready to strike: Juan Pablo Montoya (his 2nd at ‘Dega may be a sign of things to come), David Ragan (he’s not going away).Ryan Newman, Matt Kenseth and Kasey Kahne have hit a patch of track debris, but they are FAR from out. Add Jeff Gordon to that list as well.
Stay tuned. Next week could be a brand new game. Â
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RevJim
I think you have a pretty good handle on it here. Hamlin should be the favorite for Richmond, but any of the top 8 could do it as well, possibly with the exception of Edwards, since the Roush-Fenway organization concentrates mostly on the intermediate tracks.
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