Fearless Forecast: Who Will Be “The Star” Among Stars?
Saturday, May 17th, 2008 by Jim Mc Coy
A million dollar prize ought to be enough motivation for even the most successful of drivers hyped up to make this a premier all-star event. We’re talking about a dash for cash under the lights in NASCAR’s own back yard.
Zeroing in on a favorite requires a little look at history and taking into consderation who might be inclined to run well at the mile and a half speedway.
In terms of history, we’ve got the likes of Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson, Mark Martin, Matt Kenseth, Ryan Newman, Jeff Gordon (who’s won this event 3 times), Dale Earnhardt Jr. have all won the all-star race. What also has to help Martin’s chances is the fact that this will be his 19th consecutive appearance, tying the record held by Rusty Wallace. I guess what I’m sayin here is that because this race is slightly different from a typical Cup event, with a shorter race and a smaller field, there might be ways to parlay that knowledge into an advantage.
As far as success at Lowe’s is concerned, Lowe’s Motor Speedway is the “House that Jimmie Johnson Built.” In addition to his all-star win in 2006, he’s had incredible points race success here at the track that bears the name of his primary sponsor. It sure raises the eyebrows of the conspiracy theorists. Johnson’s teammate and mentor Gordon also has his share of success at Lowe’s with 4 points race wins ON TOP OF the all-star wins. Again, Mark Martin shows up in the mix with 4 Cup race wins, as well as 2 Nationwide Series wins at the Charlotte track.
But history will only take you so far. Teams change and evolve and so do the drivers. Let us also not forget that the the “CoT” also changes things as well. We have to look for any clues we can find from THIS season to help our prognostication. I want to know who’s performed well lately on the high speed tracks. When factoring that in- names such as Dale Earnhardt Jr., Kyle Busch, Ryan Newman, Tony Stewart, Kasey Kahne and Carl Edwards come to mind. I’m thinking about top performers from Daytona, Talladega, Atlanta and Texas to name a few. I’ve gotta think that there smaller field (24) will make speed an even greater factor.
The shorter race will also benefit those who tend to go on mad bursts. Shrub, Junior, Smoke, and Cousin Carl and Denny Hamlin all have their 20-30 lap runs where they just look like juggernauts. If a driver can put it together at the right time, he may just make a route out of tonight’s race.
Then there’s the aggressive and the liberties one may take because it’s “all or nothing”, and because this is not for points. I will predict right now that Kyle Busch will NOT win this race. Don’t think for a moment that Junior or more likely his older brother Kurt might not “loosen him up” if they get near each other. Depending how hard or how obvious the incident is, the offending driver may get nothing worse than “probation.” I’d probably do it if I were somebody, though you don’t want to ruin your own chances in doing so. If that doesn’t happen- I still expect some guys that are known for their aggressiveness to really push the envelope.
The fans should be in for a fun night in the same vein of the Bud Shoot Out.
Oh…you want the winner. I’m gonna go with “Junebug.” Why? Think back to his performance at the Shootout or the Gatorade Duals or any shorter length event. He rocks! If Earnhardt has ha any problem this year, it’s just that his car seems to get away from him and his team as the race wears on. On the other hand, you take the first 100 laps of just about any race this year and you will find #88 at or near the front.
Other possibilities include Busch, Tony Stewart (who’s had great runs of his own), Jimmie, and the Evernham Dodges always look good in these events. You also can’t forget the ever-competitive Carl Edwards- who tends to be RIGHT THERE with Shrub and Junior.
A lot can happen. And it probably will.
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