Let’s be scientific about this. I respect all 43 guys in the field, but let’s be real- we can eliminate 15 drivers right off the top. we’re talking about the guys in the line-up who’ve never won a Cup race. That includes the likes of David Ragan, Reed Sorenson and Patrick Carpentier-who did put forward good qualifying efforts. To me, this place is just a little too tough for a guy to get his first win. This whittles the field down to 28.

Then there’s the guys, that while capable, just don’t have the equipment to win. There’s about another 4 guys here who’ve won races, but because of things like funding and equipment- they have as much chance as a kerosene cat in Hell with gasoline boxers on. Kyle Petty, Sterling Marlin, and Joe Nemechek are among the racers that fall into this category. OK- now we’re down to 24.

Among the 43 entries are guy who just don’t win at short tracks. This includes all the Roush Fenway guys. I’m not sure what’s missing in their “Car of Today” short track program, but something’s missing. The you’ve got guys like Michael Waltrip, who is to Super Speedways like Boris Said is to road courses. I find 8 drivers in this group- taking the possibilities down to 16. Hard charger Kyle Busch is also in this group. He’ too aggressive on short tracks. You need some patience to win here.

Let’s not forget about the “luck factor.” There’s always somebody out there at any given time who arejust unlucky. Tony Stewart is having a run of bad luck. Bobby Labonte is another one. Overall, this group of guys number 4, so now we have 12 drivers to pick from.

Among the drivers who are left are guys who have the best chance of winning today. Guys who are “in their element” in Richmond. I’m talking about Kevin Harvick and Clint Bowyer from RCR, Mark Martin from DEI, Kasey Kahne from Gillett Evernham, Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr. from HMS (Jeff Gordon is one of my “bad luck” guys), and Ryan Newman from Penske- as well as Denny Hamlin from Joe Gibbs.

Frankly, it comes down to two guys- Denny Hamlin and Junior. Earnhardt has won 3 races at Richmond, and he’s been good enough to win this year, even though he hasn’t broken the spell. Now, I know that Hamlin is going to try to win from the pole- which isn’t easy. I also know the the “law of averages” are against a weekend sweep and he won last night. Yet there’s an “X” factor in all of this, I think the “11′ car has it. So in light of that, I predict…

DENNY HAMLIN WILL WIN AT RICHMOND- fulfilling his dream of winning at home. The odds may be a bit long, but that’s why we call it the “fearless forecast.”

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