Phoenix International Speedway

“Finish Line Throwdown” Re-Buttal: Lighten Up!

Now that I’ve made sure that my health coverage is in place (you tread lightly in the presence of Tagoo48), I have a few things to say amount the comments seen in Thursday night’s post.

Car of Tomorrow: The “Car of Tomorrow” addresses not only addresses safety concerns, it also addresses cost reduction and performance upgrades as well. Tagoo, I think even you’d agree that you can never be TOO safe. Yes, the old cars were not suicide machines. Well, actually, I’d say the HANS device has had as much to do with the absence of driver deaths since that fateful day in Feburary, 2001 as anything else. By the same token, if you can make a car safer, should you not do it? I thank God today I did not have to write a memorial post for Michael Mc Dowell two weeks ago. As far as I’m concerned the safety features did much to enable able the rookie to sit behind the wheel in a back-up car the following Sunday instead of watching the race from a hospital room. That wing on the back has also done a lot of good as a safety feature in spinning crashes. The new car is a safer car. Period.

I’m far from an authority on the cost of putting (and keeping) a car together, but I do know that cost reducation has also factored into the this car’s creation. There are now fewer cars in a team’s fleet than there once were. This car is a tank. More cars are finishing races, and more cars make for better racing.

The new car is still a work in progress. The lack of testing at Texas in the new car was evident by the race we saw, but I think we saw last weekend how the experience was shown by the quality  of race seen in Phoenix where the new car ran twice in 2007. There’s only one way to develop the “new” car into a better racing car- and that’s to get it out there to run races!

That brings me to my next point. To say that this season has been boring is to say that the races at Martinsville, Bristol and Phoenix were not good. I beg to differ! These were good races filled with lead changes, bumper bangin’, dangerous passes and the whole 9 yards! For the love of Mike- can someone please tell me why NASCAR fans are so quick to complain about races and tires when things go wrong and yet they say nothing when things go well??? Has anybody besides the media made comment how we’ve had no tire manufacturer issues since Atlanta? Shouldn’t Goodyear be commended for getting it right the VAST majority of the time? Concerning Texas- have we ever really had a great race there? I haven’t seen one. Is it not a little too simplistic to blame it on the car? Jimmie Johnson complained about the car after that race. Funny- where was this complaining about the “new” car when he was winning the Chase last year in it? Hmm. Interesting.  

Fundamentally, I think the fan base of NASCAR has an attitude problem. If you watch other sports, you see games that aren’t good. Heck, we’ve had boring Super Bowls. Does that mean the NFL should change their qualifying rules? Should baseball change it’s rules because of the 22-inning snooze fest that was the Rockies-Padres game this week? No!

Having said that- NASCAR should allow for change if over the course of time it’s PROVEN that the car in it’s present state is not a good racing machine on the intermediate tracks- the places where the races have not been up to par. But again- I think we need to give racing teams time to get it right. Testing won’t do it. We’ve got to race the doggone thing out there to really get a handle on it. Changes now would create a moving target nobody could hit.

As for race coverage quality, the smart network is the one who gives race fans what they want. I’ll tell you why we know about Junior every time he so much as breaks wins- because the overwhelming number of race fans LOVE Dale Earnhardt, Jr. Junior is the most popular driver in NASCAR- BY A MILE! FOX, TNT and ABC/ESPN would be stupid to ignore him. I actually watched last Saturday’s race with a VERY critical eye, and I thought FOX did a good job of filling me in on the drivers fighting to get in or stay in the top 35. I saw passes deeper in the field…but let’s be honest. Most people really want to know what’s going on up front. 99% of the audience doesn’t care one whit about the battle for 40th between Joe Nemechek and Robby Gordon.

You mentioned Kyle Busch Tagoo, maybe he’d get his own “personal” camera man if he didn’t act like a butt-munch towards the camera anytime he has a bad race. Carl Edwards, Junior, Jeff Gordon and even Michael Waltrip get the coverage they do because these drivers get it. They know that you have to take the good with the bad.

As for victory celebrations- I’m sorry you hate the backflip. It demonstrates orginality. Something that I will agree is seriosuly lacking in NASCAR, but I’m not sure you’re proposed solution will cut it. The best I’d ever seen was Dale Earnhardt’s celebration after he’d finally won the Daytona 500. Now that was cool!

Overall, I think this has been a good season. NASCAR is as competitive as it’s ever been- even though the most serious contenders come from the top 4 or 5 teams. Still, we really have no idea who’s going win it all this year, and that’s good for racing.

We’re going to have good races, we’re going to have bad ones. This is no different than any other sport. I think the sooner we have the attitude of looking for the good in something, rather than getting all bunged up over the bad, the better off we’ll be.

So- be patient. We’re not even out of turn one for the 2008, and a lot of what we’ve seen so far has actually been pretty interesting. I don’t think anyone could have predicted some of the story lines we’ve had so far- whether it be Ryan Newman’s victory at Daytona, HMS only having ONE victory out of 8 races so far, or whether it’s the performance of Richard Childress, Carl Edwards or veteran Jeff Burton.

There’s a lot of season left. As of right now, I wouldn’t change a doggone thing.

Race Re-Cap: They’re Baaaack…..

Well, to be totally honest with you, I never thought Jimmie Johnson went anywhere. The driver of the Lowe’s #48 Chevrolet has the total package- the team, the crew chief, the driver. You may keep a man like Jimmie Johnson down for a little while, but you won’t do it for long.

Phoenix was a war of attrition. While we didn’t TOTALLY lose many cars, several good drivers were knocked out of contention for one reason or another. Guys that we’re accustomed to seeing towards the front. Matt Kenseth missed an extended stretch after bending the wall, Ryan Newman’s power steering squandered his pole position, and Kasey Kahne was victimized by late race troubles.

For a while, I was just sure we would see a Victory Lane visitor who hadn’t been there in a while. I haven’t seen ol’ Mark Martin run like that in a long time. It’s just my opinion (and one of many unpopular ones I hold- but you know me), but I think you can put away your DEI obituary and save it for another decade. Not only did Martin’s 5th place finish impress, but Martin Truex Jr. put together a solid performance. Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, Clint Bowyer, and Kyle Busch looked like contenders at times too.

Ol’ “Junebug” just missed it. Junior, Newman, Martin, Carl Edwards, Johnson all had their runs and the good news for Earnhardt was that he finished with a car that was NOT 100 times worse than what he started with.

There was some good battling going one, and it seemed like there a boatload of cautions, but the real story was a gas- and no, I’m not talking about Tony Stewart’s pre-race Subway sandwich. I’m talking about the drama over fuel mileage and who had enough to finish, and how much drivers coming in would need.

Let’s just say it right now- Jimmie Johnson and Chad Knaus are the smartest driver/crew chief combo in NASCAR, unlike any other I’ve ever seen. The #48 team looked like they were taking a chance, but Knaus guided Johnson through those final laps with juts enough to cross the finish line ahead everybody else. It was so reminiscent of Johnson’s late 2007 run when he won 4 races in a row.

This team always finds a way to win and overcome mistakes. In a post-race interview, Knaus admitted that keeping the El Cajon, California native out on the caution at lap 129 was a mistake, but they found a way to recover.

That’s what champions do.

 I’m outta here. I”ve run a 10-mile race today, watched my daughter’s soccer game, helped coach my son’s soccer team, spent two hours working on my weekend job and tended to a sick wife (flu).

Keep it tuned right here. during the offweek, I’m cooking up a spirited debate with a couple of people whom I greatly respect, but profoundly disagree with.

Good night.

Fearless Forecast: Who Will Get Their First 2008 Win at Phoenix?

This a lot more art than it is science. Given that, I am impressed that the vast majority of the TV broadcast crew successfully picked Carl Edwards to win at Texas over Junior. Oh well, at least D.W. agreed with me- which depending on who you are is either good or bad.

Phoenix is a one mile track with a short track feel. There’s not as much banking here. So I’m thinking raw engine power won’t be as much of a factor. Given the short track feel, I’m also thinking that like many others, track position will be important to avoid the crashers at the back of the pack.

You also have to factor history into the equation. 3 active drivers have won two Cup races here: Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Burton, and Kevin Harvick. All three have enjoyed a good start to their 2008 season- with Burton at the top of the standings, Harvick right behind his RCR teammate and Jr. in 4th. Pretty safe to say they’ll be factors. By way of information, it should be noted that Tony Stewart, Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Mark Martin, and Bill Elliott have also seen victory lane at Phoenix. The victories will certainly give you some indication of a driver’s mastery of the track, but that doesn’t mean everything. I mean it’s safe to say no one is expecting Elliott to win with the #21 Ford (his PIS victory came in 1989) barely got in. I also have slight doubts about Martin winning, too. Oh, his #8 DEI Chevy has the potential to RUN well, but it DOEs help to know Martin’s win came while employed by Jack Roush. So, before using past wins as a measuring stick, it pays to drill a little deeper and consider the conditions under which a driver won.

So, I suppose you also have to factor in the “new” car factor. There have been two previous races at Phoenix using the car formerly known as the “CoT.” That narrows the list of winners here down to Gordon and Johnson. It’s important to know this, because I think any serious fan will agree this car is a different breed of cat. There’s not a ton of history on this car, but there is more of a track record at PIS.

There is also plenty of other statistical abstract you can fall back on- if you use “Driver Rating”- Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick, Jeff Gordon, Kurt Busch and Tony Stewart have the highest track rating at Phoenix in that order. The formula is as tricky as quarterback efficiency rating in the NFL. All I’ll say is the formula looks good and the drivers on this list look impressive to me.

I’m also becoming convinced that qualifying position is overrated. Oh, don’t get me wrong, it’s better to start up front and get a good run going in the clean air than to have 40 schmoes in front of you, some of whom may have any number of things wrong with their cars, or even their heads from time to time. But let’s face it, do you REALLY think Elliott Sadler will hold that #2 position all race long? Starting track position cannot offset equipment problems, or less than brilliant driving skills. I don’t mean to be harsh- but there are reasons, perhaps several that may explain why Jeff Gordon has 81 wins and Kenny Schrader (as good as he is) hasn’t won a race since George H.W. Bush was President.

But for all of that, you can’t figure just plain dumb luck. No less than Richard Petty said that some of his mind boggling 27 wins in 1967 were plain old luck. We’ ve all seen it: some days, you just have one bad part. Sometimes you just happen to be in the wrong place when the driver in front of you loses it. Sometimes you’re the windshield, sometimes you’re the bug.

I suppose I’ve said all this to let you know I just don’t draw names out of a hat, or that I pull my predictions out of my……..nose. I suppose I’m defensive about this because I’ve come close often this season, but I’m well on my way to becoming the Dave Blaney of NASCAR forecasting. Now that’s not the worst thing in the world, but I WANT BETTER RESULTS.

At the end of the day, it’s all about having fun and starting a lively discussion, maybe even a little smack. But, given my competitive nature, it’s more fun when you’re right.

I know what you’re thinking…”So who’s gonna win already!!!!!”

Going as much as anything from the gut, I predict that:

JIMMIE JOHNSON WILL WIN AT PHOENIX.

Why? He’s won at Phoenix in the Car of Tomorrow, with 33 Cup victories and 2 Cup titles, he’s a proven winner and most of all…..he’s very pissed off and is smart enough to know how to channel that frustration. Driving for HMS- the New York Yankees of NASCAR- doesn’t hurt.