Gillett Evernham Racing

Fearless Forecast: Deja Vu at Charlotte?

It has to be a match made in Heaven when a driver rocks at his sponsor’s track. Of course, conspiracy theorists who say NASCAR is rigged have a field day with the fact that Jimmie Johnson has 5 victories at Lowe’s Motor Speedway. It would also be too easy to predict the “48″ as the winner of the Coca-Cola 600, especially given that he’s won the holiday marathon race 3 times.

But I’m not going to….

Don’t get me wrong, Jimmie is in the mix big time. I, for one, do not think his mojo is completely gone, and I believe he will be top 5 for the 2008 season. By the same token, something in my gut tells me he’s not winning this one. As a matter of fact, I’m going to go out on a limb and say that the best Hendrick performance will come from Jeff Gordon. Johnson still has some bouts of inconsistency with getting the car set up just right for him. In fact, I’ll go as far as to say that Johnson may be the surest evidence how difficult this car is to get a handle on for driving. By the same token, it’s like Jeff Burton said on “NASCAR Confidential” yesterday- it’s still way early yet, and in due time, teams will get it figured out. As for Dale Jr., my opinion is that he’s pressing and still over-driving his cars, something that does not bode well for a 600-mile race.

Speaking of people who over-drive their cars, I will go on record once again this week by saying Kyle Busch will NOT win. Granted, it wasn’t his fault that Joe Gibbs’ experimental engine bailed on him and cost him the win in the All-Star race. I am also aware that “Shrub” said he would work to not push his car over the line. Saying it and doing it are two different things however.

I expect that Roush will be represented at or near the front. Matt Kenseth is too good to stay down long. Greg Biffle is coming off a good week. Carl Edwards is well, Carl Edwards- and he has a mastery of the mile and a half’s. David Ragan may also continue his unlikely run of looking good and running strong. This is, after all, a race known for producing first victories (such as last year’s Coke 600 winner Casey Mears).

Keep your eyes open for Childress boys. I’m not sure which one, if not all three drivers between Kevin Harvick, Jeff Burton and Clint Bowyer will run well. I actually think this race favors Burton’s conservative approach. One if not all of these guys will run well.

But my pick does not come from this team…

My pick is a guy who’s running with a high level of confidence right now. He’s also a good one for not wearing out his equipment. He’s also been a multiple race winner here, sweeping the 2006 schedule at Lowe’s, and he was also last week’s All-Star race winner.

I’m going to go with Kasey Kahne.

Kahne’s had SOME good runs, though he’s had a hard time getting to the top five or victory lane. But just listen to his interviews, and you can tell he’s there in terms of his confidence. Your crew chief is important in a distance race like this, and I think the Enumclaw, Washington native’s pit boss, Kenny Francis has the perfect working relationship with his driver. The gutsy call from last week only enhances that relationship.

Of course, having former race strategist extrodinaire Ray Evernham as your owner certainly doesn’t hurt.

 

 

 

Vickers team wins the Pit Crew Challenge

It took a team with a former Appalachian State Fullback and two former college hockey players to win the Sprint Pit Crew Challenge presented by Craftsman.

Vickers’ team beat the team of Denny Hamlin, with a time of 23.011 seconds, giving them pit selection number 1 for the All-Star Race Saturday, and they also collected a $70,000 prize.

Records:

Crew Member Name	Position	Team	Time
Eric Wilson	Jackman	No. 9 Budweiser Dodge	5.431 seconds
Caleb Hurd	Gas Man	No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet	10.031 seconds

Hendrick continued their bad luck in the competition, all Hendrick teams were eliminated in or before the quarterfinals, leaving them without a showing in the semifinals for the third year.

Last time for Jarrett

The upcoming NASCAR Sprint Cup All-Star race in Concord, NC is planned to be the career finale for Dale Jarrett. Wouldn’t it be great if he could win his first career all-star race this weekend?

Dale Jarrett will be in the race because of his 1999 Sprint Cup Series championship.

Dale Jarrett started his luxurious career in 1977. Racing at a Track his father (Ned Jarrett) owned, Hickory Motor Speedway.

“Enjoy this. We all have our time in this, and mine has been fantastic. To me, it has been an honor and a privilege to be able to race in this series and say I raced with and against and sometimes beat the best in the world. Thanks for allowing me to do that. Enjoy it. It’s a great sport, and you guys make it what it is.”

That was the quote from Dale Jarrett prior to his last points race at Bristol.

Dale Arnold Jarrett has achieved many awards and honors in his life. Including 1999 Sprint Cup champion, 2004 USG Person of the Year, and in 1998, he was named one of NASCAR’s 50 greatest drivers.

In 680 races, Jarrett has 32 wins, 163 top fives, 260 top tens, 16 poles, he has completed 185,947 laps (236,209.6 miles) - leading 6972 laps. Over 24 years of racing in NASCAR’s highest series, he has accumulated $46,725,581 in winnings.

At Lowe’s Motor Speedway, 3 wins in 42 starts.

So, this weekend, NASCAR will be saying Goodbye to a champion, and one of the greatest racers in the history of the National Association for Stock Car Auto Racing.

(Left to right) H.A. ‘Humpy’ Wheeler, president and general manager of Lowe’s Motor Speedway, and Dale Jarrett unveil the car that the 1999 NASCAR Sprint Cup champion will drive in his final event, the NASCAR Sprint All-Star Race at Lowe’s Motor Speedway in Concord, N.C. on May 17. (Photo Credit: HHP / Harold Hinson)

Fearless Forecast: The Winner At Richmond Will Be….

Let’s be scientific about this. I respect all 43 guys in the field, but let’s be real- we can eliminate 15 drivers right off the top. we’re talking about the guys in the line-up who’ve never won a Cup race. That includes the likes of David Ragan, Reed Sorenson and Patrick Carpentier-who did put forward good qualifying efforts. To me, this place is just a little too tough for a guy to get his first win. This whittles the field down to 28.

Then there’s the guys, that while capable, just don’t have the equipment to win. There’s about another 4 guys here who’ve won races, but because of things like funding and equipment- they have as much chance as a kerosene cat in Hell with gasoline boxers on. Kyle Petty, Sterling Marlin, and Joe Nemechek are among the racers that fall into this category. OK- now we’re down to 24.

Among the 43 entries are guy who just don’t win at short tracks. This includes all the Roush Fenway guys. I’m not sure what’s missing in their “Car of Today” short track program, but something’s missing. The you’ve got guys like Michael Waltrip, who is to Super Speedways like Boris Said is to road courses. I find 8 drivers in this group- taking the possibilities down to 16. Hard charger Kyle Busch is also in this group. He’ too aggressive on short tracks. You need some patience to win here.

Let’s not forget about the “luck factor.” There’s always somebody out there at any given time who arejust unlucky. Tony Stewart is having a run of bad luck. Bobby Labonte is another one. Overall, this group of guys number 4, so now we have 12 drivers to pick from.

Among the drivers who are left are guys who have the best chance of winning today. Guys who are “in their element” in Richmond. I’m talking about Kevin Harvick and Clint Bowyer from RCR, Mark Martin from DEI, Kasey Kahne from Gillett Evernham, Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr. from HMS (Jeff Gordon is one of my “bad luck” guys), and Ryan Newman from Penske- as well as Denny Hamlin from Joe Gibbs.

Frankly, it comes down to two guys- Denny Hamlin and Junior. Earnhardt has won 3 races at Richmond, and he’s been good enough to win this year, even though he hasn’t broken the spell. Now, I know that Hamlin is going to try to win from the pole- which isn’t easy. I also know the the “law of averages” are against a weekend sweep and he won last night. Yet there’s an “X” factor in all of this, I think the “11′ car has it. So in light of that, I predict…

DENNY HAMLIN WILL WIN AT RICHMOND- fulfilling his dream of winning at home. The odds may be a bit long, but that’s why we call it the “fearless forecast.”

Pull Your Belts Tight!- Talladega Edition

Up Next: The Aaron’s 499, Talladega Superspeedway, Talladega, AL- Sunday, April 27, 2008 at 2:00 p.m., broadcast on FOX- TV.

Bill France Sr. unveiled this track in 1969- designed to be “the world’s fastest speedway.”  Due to driver concerns regarding tires on this 2.66 mile track, many Cup drivers sat it out. France tried to prove the safety of the track by running laps himself, but the argument fell on deaf ears. A handful of Cup drivers ran with Grand National and ARCA drivers on that first race in September of 1969. Richard Brickhouse picked up his only NASCAR Cup win.

Talladega Superspeedway is a 2.66 mile ”superspeedway” with 18 degrees banking on the tri-oval, 2 degrees on the back stretch, and 33 degrees on the turns.

Track Records: While Brickhouse won the first race, Dale Earnhardt won the most at this track in the heart of the deep South. ”The Intimidator” won 10 races at Talladega. The “Pole King” here is Bill Elliott. “Awesome Bill from Dawsonville” has captured 8 poles, including  the fastest qualifying speed ever in NASCAR Cup competition, a blistering 212.809 m.p.h., making a lap time of 44.998 seconds. Mark Martin ran the fastest race in 1997, running a time of 2 hours, 39 minutes, and 18 seconds, his average speed was 188.354 m.p.h. “Mr. September,” Harry Gant, is the oldest Talladega winner- he won just 3 months after his 51st birthday in 1991. The youngest? Bobby Hillin Jr. was 22 when he won at the Alabama track in 1986. The record for the most cautions is 11- in April of 2004. No cautions waved 3 times, the most recent in October of 2002.

Some races are races, some races are events. Talladega is a NASCAR event. Talladega’s race may not occur on or near a holiday, and it may not be the “Superbowl of NASCAR” like Daytona, and it’s not the first or last race of the season- but it’s still a big deal. Dale Earnhardt Jr., a 5-time winner at Talladega, likens the infield to Mardi Gras, and from the images I’ve seen, I’d just say this may not be a race i’d take my kids to. The fact that fans threw beer cans (some full, some not) at winner Jeff Gordon this time last year says a great deal for the condition of a lot of fans by Sunday evening when it all ends. Talladega is also home to some of the most famous crashes of all time- Elliott Sadler’s spectacular wreck a few seasons back stands out. The speeds reached are just outrageous, and Elliott’s qualifying run was one of the reasons why restrictor plates were introduced to tracks like Talladega to slow things down.

Talladega may very well be the “House of Earnhardt.” Between Cup and Nationwide racing Dale and Dale Jr. have won 17 races.

This track is a “House of Champions” and a “House of Wild Cards.” Jeff Gordon, Kurt Busch and Tony Stewart boast the best driver ratings here among active drivers. This place also represents the place where Brian Vickers has his only Cup win, as well as Bobby Hillin, Richard Brickhouse, and Phil Parsons- plus Michael Waltrip, Sterling Marlin, Dave Marcis and Bobby Hamilton picked up rare career wins here as well.

With speed being the word of the day, I expect that the extra power the Toyota engines have will help Joe Gibbs, Red Bull, Bill Davis and Michael Waltrip make things interesting. By the same token- Chevy’s have dominated at Talladega, thanks to the Earnhardts, 6- time winner Jeff Gordon, Ernie Irvan, and Marlin among others. This bodes well for Richard Childress and HMS- the premier bow tie teams. Don’t count the Dodges out- Kurt Busch and Ryan Newman looked great in practice today- as did Elliott Sadler and Kasey Kahne.

Last fall’s CoT race at Talladega was a bit of a bore as it seemed racers were reluctant to let it all hang it out in the middle of Chase, but let’s see how it goes Sunday. With extra cockpit time comes greater boldness, so let’s hope for a better race this time.

Drafting will be a factor here. “Smoke” has finished 2nd 6 times at Talladega. It’s his opinion that this a place where a driver needs help in the draft to win. One thing for sure the design of the new car does allow for better bumper-to-tail contact. Stewart says this race will be a “chess match.” He says he’s better at checkers.

Due to scheduling constraints, there will be no “NASCAR Terminology” in this weeks edition. Look for that to return next week.

I gotta run. Late tomorrow night, I will give you my “Fearless Forecast” for Sunday.

Happy racing!

 

NASCAR Stocks: Moving Up, Going Down (Top 10 Drivers)

If the top driver rankings were a race it would look like this: there’s a pack of drivers shifting spots like a draft pack on a super speedway. While they shift a little, it’s still the same group of guys. Then there’s a driver in between packs, followed by another group of drivers fading back, but ahead of the rest of the field.

As we make our way deeper in to Turn One of the 2008 season, we may be able to identify trends that will set the stage for the remainder of the season. A driver can always zig-zag his way from the back a la Dale Earnhardt, but I think we have a pretty good idea who the top contenders are.

Here’s how my Top 10 shapes up this week:

#10- Greg Biffle (down from 9th)- I must admit that I’m surprised to re-discover that Biffle finished 9th at Phoenix. That has to be about the quietest top 10 there is. You may take out of this that the Vancouver, Washington native is still very solid, but there are others moving past him. Still, Biff is having a much better season than 2008 as he and his Roush teammates log one solid finish after another. He may not be a front-runner right now, but he’s looking like a Jeff Burton-type, hanging around, in position to win should somebody up front mess up.

#9- Kevin Harvick (down from 8th)- After a run of 4 top 10s and a 2nd place finish at Bristol, “Happy” hasn’t been so joyful over the last 3 events. His 19th place in the Subway Fresh Fit 500 is once again testament to his ability to overcome challenges, but Harvick’s got a group ahead of him getting better results.

#8- Clint Bowyer (up from 10th)- Bowyer snuck his way up front to a 2nd place finish Saturday- his 5th straight Top 10, and the closest the Kansan has come to victory lane in 2008. His recent average finish over the last 5 races of 6.2 is quite impressive and gives one the impression he may kick the door down soon.

#7- Tony Stewart (down from 4th)- Though the 3 place drop may seem dramatic, the fact is “Smoke” is just getting warmed up for his second half run. After the Atlanta debacle, Stewart has put forward a yeoman’s effort with an average finish of 8th over the last 5 races. Nothing to get real excited about, but 7th is still a very good place to be at this juncture of the season.

#6- Kyle Busch (down from 3rd)- Joe Gibbs’ newest addition hasn’t quite attained the same lofty results he’s had in the other series, as “Shrub” is fighting off a bit of inconsistency. He can be great one race, and pretty ordinary by Busch standards the next. By the same token, I’m sure there are 50 other NASCAR drivers who’d love to be 2nd in the point standings.

#5- Dale Earnhardt Jr. (no change)- I was just sure “Junebug” had a win in the bag Saturday. Earnhardt led for 87 laps before giving way to Mark Martin, and eventual winner Jimmie Johnson. Junior hasn’t closed the deal yet, but Talladega is in his “wheelhouse”, so look for #88 to keep building on a good start in 2008.

#4- Denny Hamlin (up from 6th)- I really like what Hamlin is doing right now. He’s reminding me why there was so much hype over he and Clint Bowyer at the beginning of 2006. Denny has 3 top 5s in a row, including the win at Martinsville. So….who thought #11 would be Joe Gibbs hottest driver at this point in the season? Hey- don’t lie to me! I’ll watch with interest how he handles the high speeds and wide open racing at Talladega.

#3- Carl Edwards (down from #2)- He may have never led at Phoenix, but he fought his to 4th, another nice finish after the 42nd place debacle at Atlanta. If not for the 100 point penakty resulting from the loose oil tank lid at Las Vegas, 2008’s leader in wins would be 2nd in points.

#2- Jimmie Johnson (up from 7th)- Johnson’s performance is becoming too difficult to ignore. While a “3-peat” may be asking too much of ANY driver, no matter how GOOD he is, there can be no question that the Lowe’s/Kobalt Chevrolet will be a factor. In fact, I’ll go as far as to predict that the final top five (not necessarily in order) will be Johnson, Edwards, Earnhardt, Kyle Busch and Tony Stewart.

#1- Jeff Burton (no change)- I came very close to giving this spot to Johnson, BUT you have to give J.B. props for being the most consistent driver of 2008. This is what sets Burton apart from upstarts like Edwards and Busch, who may be more spectacular. The 40-year-old just doesn’t drive himself into trouble. that can work two ways though, and if the aforementioned youngsters keep piling up the wins, Burton will eventually fade.

Ready to Strike: Martin Truex, Kasey Kahne, Matt Kenseth and Ryan Newman are all poised to move up. Truexmay be the guy to really watch in this mix with some good recent runs. Kahne, Newman and Kenseth have been snake bit of late. But as Frankie Stallone used to sing “I am down, but far from over.” (Pop culture reference of the day). 

We may have had some races that haven’t been that thrilling, but you must admit- there’s a lot more suspense in the driver’s standings than we’ve had in some time. You can’t get around the fact that the drivers at Roush, Childress, Hendrick and Gibbs are head and shoulders above the rest, but I still see Penske, Evernham and maybe even Ganassi, or Red Bull or perhaps even Michael Waltrip pulling off wins in 2008.