Patrick Carpentier

NASCAR Stocks: The Top 10- Moving Up, Going Down

Races like we had in Richmond really make this mor art than science. The stats that are sued to hel determine performance will never reflect that Denny Hamlin and Dale Jr. were the class of the field. But because this is MY system, I’ll do it how I see fit.

There’ll be some changes this week.  

#10- Ryan Newman (unranked last week)- “Rocket” fought his way back with a 6th place finish at Richmond. Newman has sown signs of life the last two weeks, and his recent results are good enough to bump Greg Biffle- who’s weaker in average finish, has no wins and has the same number of top 10s as Newman. Ya have to like this guy, so maybe I’m biased. The dude never complains, no matter how bad things are.

#9- Kevin Harvick (up 1 from 9th)- “Happy” is hangin’ tough. His presence in my top 10 with teammates Clint Bowyer and Jeff Burton is a testament to the depth at Richard Childress- quietly putting them in a league with Hendrick and Gibbs.

#8- Jimmie Johnson (down 3 from 5th)- A 30th place finish will hurt you, no matter how good you are. trust me, I still maintain Johnson will be a top 5 by season’s end, he’s just been in the wrong place at the wrong time. Still, he’s too good to stay down long.

#7- Carl Edwards (unchanged)- The circuit leader in wins (3) didn’t hurt himself with his 7th at Richmond. That’s more than I can say for his image, which took a hit in the Carpentier incident.

#6- Tony Stewart (up 2 spots from 8th)- Smoke just barely cleared Edwards, but that 4th Saturday night, helped him in this tight pack of drivers. Stewart really needs a win. I think it will come soon.

#5- Jeff Burton (down 2 from 3rd)- It’s a shame, because this guy’s remarkably consistent. Nonetheless, there are guys making just a little more noise. I feel perfectly justified in ranking J.B. where he is below the guys that I think have been perhaps a little more daring.

#4- Dale Earnhardt Jr. (unchanged)- Junior’s finish obviously doesn’t reflect how good he was. Same story for Denny Hamlin. The win will come soon enough, I just hope he doesn’t press too hard.

#3- Denny Hamlin (down 1 spot from 2nd)- What a bummer! Denny should have won Saturday, a victim of the worst luck. Even with this 24th at RIR, Hamlin’s average finish of 7.2 over the last 5 races is second only to….

#2- Clint Bowyer (up 4 from 6th)- Bowyer is the hot pick of hot week. He’s been hanging around like a stalker for the last several weeks, and he finally got that elusive first win of 2008. Bowyer has an average finish of 6.4 over the last 5 races, best on the Sprint Cup tour. Bowyer’s 7 top 10s ties him with Junior and the #1 guy….

#1- Kyle Busch (unchanged)- Shrub is also #1 a new category “Most Hated Driver in NASCAR.” He’s helping elevate the likes of Tony Stewart and Robby Gordon to sainthood. No matter what you think of him personally, his 6 top 5s are easily the best at the Cup level. People, get over the incident- that was racin’. If he just keep his fool  mouth shut, he might be able to give the new title up.

I just can’t dismis Busch’s talent and performance- hopefully proving to you that this Jeff Gordon fan is not guilty of bias.

Ready to Strike- The aforementioned Gordon showed life at Richmond. Kasey Kahne continues to hang around. Greg Biffle may be down is far from over.

What will happen next? There’s only one way to find out.

 

Race Re-Cap: Rumble In Richmond

I suspect this scene will be happening in a hotel somewhere tonight. “Yeah, I’d like to get a room for one night.” “Uh, my name, Butz. Seymour Butz.” Kyle Busch’s mug is going to be hard to hide, but he’d better do what he can to mask his identity until he gets of Virginia after his fender bender with Dale Earnhardt Jr. late in the Crown Royal Presents the Dan Lowry 400 in Richmond, Virginia. The anger I’m seeing is just about frying my computer.

You can’t blame Junior Nation for being mad. Junebug looked like he was a winner after Denny Hamlin’s tire went flat. Up until the point of impact, it was a good old-fashioned bump ‘n’ grind short track drag race between Earnhardt and Busch. Then it happened. The “18″ and “88″ collided, sending Earnhardt spinning off into another disappointing finish, and opening the door to victory for Clint Bowyer, who picked up his 2nd career NASCAR Sprint Cup win.

Everybody has their own opinion about the “incident” and I’ve got my own, which I will keep to myself. Let me just say it was a bummer to see two of the best cars in the field (Hamlin and Junior) finish outside the top 5 after the night they had.

Earlier today, I said it would be either Hamlin or Junior that would win. For about 373 laps, Hamlin was proving me right. Everything Denny needed from his car in terms of a set-up he had. It was setting up to be a feel good story that would have only been eclipsed by Earnhardt ending his victory drought: the local boy wins near his hometown of Chesterfield, Virginia. Hamlin and crew chief Mike Ford were simpatico, and then that danged tire went down, opening a Pandora’s box for what would happen next.

I find it a little hard to be angry at Denny, but it’s too bad he didn’t get off the track for new tires once he knew the tire was going down. At the end of the day, I think he would have ended up at the same place. Hamlin has been hot up until now, but there’s no doubt we were exposed to Denny’s Achilles’ heel.  The #11 FedEx has this maddening tendency to beat itself with silly mistakes. Don’t get me wrong, the tire wasn’t his fault, but not getting off the track sooner was- whether it was Hamlin’s decision or Ford’s.

Give props to Clint Bowyer for the win. Bowyer’s finish serves as the new “Exhibit A” as to why one should never give up. The #07 Chevy hung around in the spirit and tradition of David Pearson to emerge a victor. Given how things played out, it seems fitting that a guy that nobody seems to truly dislike comes out with the win.

My “Rocky Balboa” Award will be shared by Jeff Gordon and Kevin Harvick. Gordon started 43rd, but fought and clawed his way towards the front- giving him a decent end to what was a horrid weekend for his team. Harvick did a great job of hanging tough and staying hungry, even though it seemed apparent his car had recurring issues.

In addition to be bummed for Hamlin and Earnhardt, I was also bummed for Patrick Carpentier. He qualified well and was doing a good job of gaining on-the-job experience until he got collected in a big-time way in what started out as the Dave Blaney-J.J. Yeley incident. Talk about being in the wrong place at the wrong time!

We saw good racing tonight- it’s too bad it finished like this. While I lean more towards a “race incident” opinion on the Earnhardt-Busch affair, there can be no question Kyle Busch has found himself on the same unfortunate path his older brother Kurt took a way years back. After tonight, I’m quite sure his list of detractors has increased exponentially, and further mars the reputation of one of NASCAR’s most talented young drivers. Give credit to Junior for handling the post-race T.V. interview with grace, there’s no question his entire demeanor was heavy with disappointment. Nobody would have blamed him for running over to Busch and popping him, but that’s never been his style, and I’m proud of him for it.

Wouldn’t it have been cool if Mark Martin had won? Whatever he’s got in that car he ran in Phoenix and this place, he needs to bottle that up!

It also would have been fun for Bobby Labonte to pull out a win in the “Speed Racer” Dodge. 

As for Busch, well…..for my part I like his driving and I don’t think he’s half the jerk some think he is. BUT tonight’s incident won’t help his case or mine.

For every driver and fan disappointed by tonight’s finish, there is always the new hope brought by the promise of another week at the “Dark Lady” of Darlington. If it goes next week like it’s been going lately- it’s gonna be a show and a half. 

Fearless Forecast: The Winner At Richmond Will Be….

Let’s be scientific about this. I respect all 43 guys in the field, but let’s be real- we can eliminate 15 drivers right off the top. we’re talking about the guys in the line-up who’ve never won a Cup race. That includes the likes of David Ragan, Reed Sorenson and Patrick Carpentier-who did put forward good qualifying efforts. To me, this place is just a little too tough for a guy to get his first win. This whittles the field down to 28.

Then there’s the guys, that while capable, just don’t have the equipment to win. There’s about another 4 guys here who’ve won races, but because of things like funding and equipment- they have as much chance as a kerosene cat in Hell with gasoline boxers on. Kyle Petty, Sterling Marlin, and Joe Nemechek are among the racers that fall into this category. OK- now we’re down to 24.

Among the 43 entries are guy who just don’t win at short tracks. This includes all the Roush Fenway guys. I’m not sure what’s missing in their “Car of Today” short track program, but something’s missing. The you’ve got guys like Michael Waltrip, who is to Super Speedways like Boris Said is to road courses. I find 8 drivers in this group- taking the possibilities down to 16. Hard charger Kyle Busch is also in this group. He’ too aggressive on short tracks. You need some patience to win here.

Let’s not forget about the “luck factor.” There’s always somebody out there at any given time who arejust unlucky. Tony Stewart is having a run of bad luck. Bobby Labonte is another one. Overall, this group of guys number 4, so now we have 12 drivers to pick from.

Among the drivers who are left are guys who have the best chance of winning today. Guys who are “in their element” in Richmond. I’m talking about Kevin Harvick and Clint Bowyer from RCR, Mark Martin from DEI, Kasey Kahne from Gillett Evernham, Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr. from HMS (Jeff Gordon is one of my “bad luck” guys), and Ryan Newman from Penske- as well as Denny Hamlin from Joe Gibbs.

Frankly, it comes down to two guys- Denny Hamlin and Junior. Earnhardt has won 3 races at Richmond, and he’s been good enough to win this year, even though he hasn’t broken the spell. Now, I know that Hamlin is going to try to win from the pole- which isn’t easy. I also know the the “law of averages” are against a weekend sweep and he won last night. Yet there’s an “X” factor in all of this, I think the “11′ car has it. So in light of that, I predict…

DENNY HAMLIN WILL WIN AT RICHMOND- fulfilling his dream of winning at home. The odds may be a bit long, but that’s why we call it the “fearless forecast.”