Mark Martin

Fearless Forecast: Empire Strikes Back

It just seems like certain TEAMS own certain race tracks. It’s kind of odd how it works that way. I mean you expect certain drivers to have a particularly good feel for certain surfaces and distances. Jeff Gordon does very well on the short tracks and road courses. Bobby Labonte has 6 of his 21 career wins at Atlanta. You may not be able to count on Michael Waltrip to win too many races, but he’s a darn good bet on super speedways, as well as his former teammate- Dale Earnhardt Jr. Kasey Kahne rules on the intermediates, as does fellow young gun Carl Edwards. Speaking of Edwards, he’s known as the “King of Concrete.”

Dover is a concrete track, a one miler with a short track feel, loads of banking and changing elevations, giving it a roller coaster ride effect. It’s interesting to know then, that while Edwards is ordinarily awesome on concrete tracks (Nashville, for example), Edwards is just well,, ordinary at Dover. His driver rating of just over 98 puts him at #8 among active drivers. His starting position of 14th is not something get all tingly over either. At the same time, this is a track where Roush-Fenway has a solid track record. For tomorrow’s race, Roush driver Greg Biffle is one the pole and Jamie Mc Murray is in the #5 spot. Biffle has the best driver rating here at 113, while another Roush veteran, Matt Kenseth is second with a rating of 111.  Just about the only driver that’s an unknown quantity at Dover is David Ragan- who’s been on a roll lately.

Speaking of drivers on a roll, Kasey Kahne is coming on an all-star win and a trip to Victory Lane at the Coca-Cola 600. Kahnehas a poor track record at Dover, with a driver rating of 86. His starting position of 15th is nothing to write home about.

As far as driver ratings go, the top 5 at Dover are Biffle, Kenseth, Mark Martin, Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch. Something tells me “Rowdy” won’t be that great this week. Just a feeling.

Bringing up Johnson’s name reminds us that “Team Hendrick” is strong here too. You don’t see Jeff Gordon’s name on that top 5 list, but the veteran leads active drivers at Dover with 4 wins (Gordon is joined at the top by Bill Elliott and Mark Martin). Johnson has 3 wins here, and the newest addition to the HMS stable, Dale Jr. has one of his 17 career wins on this track (the MBNA Cal Ripken 400 in 2001).

In fact, I’m going to say that a Hendrick driver is going to pull off the win. A driver ready to bounce back. It’s tempting to go with Jeff Gordon, but I’m going to say that….

Jimmie Johnson will win tomorrow’s race.

The Lowe’s “48″ will start out of the #4 hole, and all the adjustments being made seem to be working for Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus. Johnson, a two-time defending champion is hungry after some less-than-satisfying recent runs. Johnson has a way of doing constructive things with that kind of hunger. Hendrick has only one victory in 2008 after owning the NASCAR schedule in 2007, but I think they’ll add another win tomorrow- whether it’s Johnson or Gordon.

I also look for other drivers to bounce back tomorrow. Kurt Busch ran some great laps last week and Matt Kenseth isn’t giving up. Never give up on Tony Stewart, who has two wins at DIS.    

Now a sure sign of a Kahne resurgence would be a win here.

Other young guns that bear watching include the ubiquitous Kyle Busch, A.J. Allmendinger- who qualified in the 8th spot, and A.J.’s Red Bull teammate Brian Vickers. The North Carolinian qualified 6th and was wicked fast at Lowe’s before the infamous “wheel incident.” Ryan Newman’s looking good, in spite of all the complaint he’s recently logged in his Yahoo! blog.

Drivers seem to have a lot of fun at this track. It also seems that the shorter the distance with the new car, the better the racing.

I can’t wait. 

 

NASCAR Buzz: Denny, Kez and advice from Harv and Jr.

There’s never a dull moment in the world of NASCAR. I’m really starting to get the feeling that Smoke really is going to leave JGR, that Gibbs is looking hard for his replacement (and they have someone in mind), and that NASCAR really can be as capricious as some fans accuse them of being. On top of that, I have to say there’s a driver in the Gibbs garage that I like that should have received some kind of reprimand and didn’t.

My “cred” is taking a beating.

I can understand a certain amount of wanderlust on Stewart’s part as he has been with Gibbs his entire Cup career and he’s got an itch to become an owner a la Dale Earnhardt. Makes sense, after all Tony Stewart is starting to push forty and he has to think beyond his racing career. By the same token, if it’s Haas-CNC he’s talking to, Smoke needs to do what Nancy said and “Just say ‘no.’” If the “Rushville Rocket” wants to win , he should stay put. JGR is a top flight time and will put him in the best position to win. They’re getting maximum coin from Toyota, and when you look at what’s happened so far, the Gibbs-Toyota match is one made in Heaven. If Tony really is this loyal guy, then where is his loyalty to the comoany that’s stood by him all these years? If I were Tony, I’d only go to another team if it were a sweet deal from a team with it’s act together like RCR, Hendrick or Roush.

What makes me think he’s leaving is what came out when rumors were out that Juan Pablo Montoya was trying to woo JGR. In response, the word is that Gibbs is saying “No way” to the former IRL and F-1 star, partly because they had someone else in mind. Hmmm.

Meanwhile- back at the ranch- how does Denyy Hamlin not get a fine for his part in the incident at Lowe’s with Brad Keselowski? Granted, I think Kez is getting too big for his britches and needs a trip to the woodshed to remind him of his place in this sport. For my part, I think that Kez is carrying himself as an old veteran who’s arrived, and he’s simply not there yet. His boss, Dale Earnhardt Jr., has as much said the same.  That said, I think Hamlin has to be called on the carpet for no other reason than the damage he did to Keselowski’s car. Now if Denny kicked his butt in the pits after the race, that’s another story. Those cars cost bucks, and damaging the fender was an overreach. You just don’t  that, and yet somehow, all the punishment falls to the “88″ team. This does nothing to douse the fires of conspiracy thinking prevalent among NASCAR fans. Kezelowski and his crew deserve reprimands and a certain amount of fining. He started it. BUT you can’t ignore Hamlin’s culpability in this matter.

That, or you could shine the whole thing on.

Junior says he needs to spend a little more time mentoring and guiding young Brad. Not a bad idea. It shows good leadership on his part. This ownership business sure carries a lot of responsibility. It will be good training for fatherhood too.

An interesting perspective has been shared on the matter of one Kyle Busch. Kevin Harvick, a guy known to have ruffled a few feathers during his early career had a few words of wisdom. Yes, this is the same Harvick that had early career run-ins with Ricky Rudd and Greg Biffle- among others. The 8-year veteran says that someday- that hot streak that “Wild Thing” will end. While he’s not in the business to gain friends and sympathy- having some friends around can be a good thing when you’re down on your luck. That help can come in the form of advise, maybe the offering of a ride, should you need one, or even just a little more room on the track.

Think about Mark Martin’s mistake in a Nationwide race that wrecked out Carl Edwards on the way to a Martin win. Though Edwards was upset, he KNEW that “The Kid” meant no harm nor malice, it was just a racing incident. Now put Kyle in that car. Do you think Edwards would have felt the same way?

Nobody’s doubting Busch has talent. I enjoy Shrub’s aggressiveness and willingness to make tough passes and gamble in the same mold as Dale Earnhardt. But by the same token, Busch has been out of line with a number of things, and worse yet, he’s hacked on his crew. If Kyle isn’t careful, he’s destined to become a real life “Lightning Mc Queen“- a talented guy no one wants any part of.

It’s be shame, because being alone is a sad place to be. Sadly, it overshadows Busch’s considerable talents, and the fact, that he really does a lot of good things with his spoils.

“Good on” Kevin Harvick. Busch would do very well to heed the words someone who has been there.

  

 

“Pull Those Belts Tight!”- The “Monster Mile” Edition

Up Next: The Autism Speaks 400 presented by Best Buy, Dover International Speedway- Sunday June 1, 2008. Green flag start- 2 p.m. EDT, 11 a.m. PDT. Broadcast on FOX-TV network with Mike Joy, Larry Mc Reynolds and Darrell Waltrip. Radio broadcast- MRN, Sirius Satellite Network.

Track Facts- The first race ran at the Deleware track on July 6, 1969 as the Mason- Dixon 300. “The King”, Richard Petty won that race, the first of his 7 victories on the “Monster Mile.”

Dover International Speedway is a one mile track with 24 degrees of banking in the turns and 9 on the straights.  With the banks and changing elevation on the track, drivers liken the ride on the concrete track to riding on a roller coaster. Another interesting fact: there are only 42 pit stalls for the 43 drivers. Two of them will have to be nice and share.

Track Records: Richard Petty and Bobby Allison are the all-time leading winners with 7 victories at Dover. Jeff Gordon and Mark Martin are the leading winners here among active drivers with 4 each in Cup competition.

Last year- Martin Truex Jr. and Carl Edwards won the Spring and Fall events respectively. For the New Jersey born Truex it was his first and so far, only career victory at the Cup level.

The qualifying record is held by Jeremy Mayfield, who did it in a Dodge for Ray Evernham on June 4, 2004 with a speed of 161.522 m.p.h., for a lap time of 22.288 sec. David Pearson, who won 105 NASCAR Cup races, holds the record for poles at Dover with 5. Ryan Newman and Jimmie Johnson started out front in the Spring and Fall of 2007.

Who’s the fastest at Dover? Mark “The Kid” Martin finished the MBNA 400 in a time of 3 hours and 50 seconds with an average of 132.719 m.p.h. on Sept. 21, 1997 driving a Roush Racing Ford. 

The oldest race winner at “DIS” was Harry Gant won the race the age of 52 years, 4 months and 21 days on May 31, 1992. The youngest? Jeff Gordon at 24 years, 1 month and 13 days on Sept. 17, 1995. Ever hotice how these guys always show up on this one?

The yellow flag waved a record 16 times on Sept. 16, 1993. There were NO cautions waved at the June 6, 1971 edition of the Mason- Dixon 500.

When fans think of Dover, they think of crab cakes and concrete. Given his record of excellence on concrete tracks, be on the look-out for “Cousin Carl.” Because the surface is concrete, there will be no need to worry about changing track conditions like we had at Lowe’s.  With it’s positioning in the Northeast United States, this is the closest thing to a home track for Martin Truex Jr. and Todd Bodine. Don’t think being close to home matters? “The Onion” (Bodine) has won 3 Nationwide races at Dover, Randy Lajoie 2 in the “second series.” Martin Truex has won a Cup race and 2 Nationwides at DIS.

Some other active winners here include- Jimmie Johnson and Ryan Newman have 3 wins at Dover, Tony Stewart has climbed the fence in Delaware twice. Greg Biffle, Jeff Burton, Dale Earnhardt Jr. Bobby Labonte, Matt Kenseth, Kyle Petty, and Ken Schrader all have a single win at Dover.

We’ll be keeping all these things in mind as we prepare for the “Fearless Forecast” this Saturday. Hopefully, rain won’t be the factor it was last year, though I should warn you the long range forecasts call for a significant chance of rain Sunday. Thankfully, if that be the case, by virtue of being a radio sports guy I have to (oh darn) watch the race at work!

Like that little dog in the Disney movie that Cheech Marin did the voice for said: “If this is torture, chain me to the wall.”

NASCAR Terminology- A NASCAR For Dummies Primer

Fire extinguisher switch- Did you know that the cars had one of these? All you do is pull the switch and fire-suppressing chemicals are released into the driving compartment. How cool is that?

 Axle- (Not to be confused with Axel, as in Rose)- Rotating shafts connecting the rear differential gears to the rear wheels.

Gears- Circular, wheel-shaped parts with teeth along the edges. The interlocking of these two mechanisms enables one to turn the other.

That’s all for now! Until we meet again, “Keep It Off The Walls.”

 

 

Race Re-Cap: Raisin’ Kahne (Here’s to The End of a Long Dry Spell)

Kasey Kahne is back! Fans are witness to a transformation as a rising NASCAR star gets his career back on track. It’s hard to believe that it was only two short years since Kasey Kahne won 6 races in one season. After a winless streak of 52 races, the 5th year driver follows up an encouraging All-Star effort with a win in the 2008 edition of the Coca- Cola 600. If you include last week’s non-points win, Kahne won his 4th race at Lowe’s. It bears repeating: if Lowe’s is Jimmie Johnson’s house, then Kasey Kahne must be renting out a floor from Jimmie.

Kahne looked like a finisher from the green flag. I have to admit, the action was slow enough in the opening laps, I snuck in a power nap. I awoke to find I didn’t miss much. However- over time- I’ve learned some races run in stages and it pays to stick around. After “Rowdy Shrub” Busch played Pied Piper for the first 100 laps or so, things began to get interesting. Kahne hung around, but we got looks at Brian Vickers up front, Kurt Busch looked as good as I’ve seen since Daytona, and Jimmie Johnson and Junior looked predictably good. We had a lot of drama and craziness along the way, but Kahne ran a smart race and he was there to capitalize on troubles for Stewart, Earnhardt and Busch. “The Coke” is a battle of attrition, and the team of Kahne, Kenny Francis and Ray Evernham had it all going for them today.

“The Rocky Balboa Award” has to go to Lil ”E.” I must admit that while Junior was ”rolling fly and lookin’ phat” there was a part of me saying “I wonder how it’s going to fall apart on Junior this week.” And sure enough, Earnhardt brushes the wall and gets rammed by J.J. Yeley. BUT after all that, Dale hung in there and pulled out a 5th place. He will win soon Junior Nation, you can bank on it. Just remember, Junebug is 3rd in points, finishing races and running well. I’d take that over Kyle Petty’s problems any day of the week. Kevin Harvick also had another solid finish, in spite of the fact that “Happy” once again seemed to have a mediocre race car. Harvick looks like he’s been taking lessons in survival from teammate Jeff Burton.

What a bummer for Brian Vickers. It’s obvious that the “83″ really likes Lowe’s and he sure looked like a top 5 today, but what a wreck! That crash will make its way to plenty of crash montages for years to come. Poor David Gilliland takes the loose wheel on the hood and it lands in the infield with the campers. It’s kinda funny, but I’m just glad no one got hurt. It was also an unlucky day for Jimmie Johnson (HMS’ first blown motor since the Bronze Age), and Tony Stewart (blown tire).

It would have been nice to see an old hoss like Mark Martin, Dave Blaney or Bobby Labonte win today, but by the same token I’m happy for Kasey Kahne.

There was a lot of wheel and tire troubles today. It will be interesting to hear what the drivers have to say about this over the course of the next several days.

I may be a West Coaster and get to see the race earlier than a lot of you, but even I was wornout by race’s end.

It wasn’t the best race I’d ever seen, but perhaps we can say it was the best mile and a half race we’ve had all year.

HAPPY MEMORIAL DAY! AND TO ALL YOU VETS OUT THERE, WE SALUTE YOU. THANKS TO YOU, WE CAN ALL ARGUE ABOUT NASCAR INSTEAD OF TILLING CROP IN KOMRADE PUTIN’S GARDEN.

   

Pull Those Belts Tight!- The Coca- Cola 600 Edition

Up Next: The Coca-Cola 600, Lowe’s Motor Speedway, Concord, North Carolina, May 26, 2008. Green flag- 5:30 p.m. EDT, 2:30 p.m. PDT. Broadcast on FOX-TV with Mike Joy, Darrell Waltrip and Larry Mc Reynolds. Radio broadcast on MRN and Sirius Satellite Network.

Track Facts: The First green flag waved for a Cup race here on June 19, 1960. Joe Lee Johnson was the first to see the checkered flag.

Lowe’s Motor Speedway is a mile-and-a-half oval track with 24-degrees of banking in the turns, and 5 degrees on the straights. Track conditions will change considerably mid-race as the race goes from day to night.

The Sprint Cup record for wins at LMS is shared by Darrell Waltrip and Bobby Allison who each won 6. Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon lead active drivers with 5 apiece. Mark Martin has won 6 races at this track in a Nationwide car.

Casey Mears won last year’s Coca-Cola 600, Jeff Gordon won the Bank of America 500 in October, 2007.

Other Track Records: The qualifying record is held by Elliott Sadler with a time of 27.948 seconds at a speed of 193.216 m.p.h. on October 15, 2005. The “King Of Qualifying” is David Pearson, who captured 14 during his lengthy career.

The fastest race? That was run by Jeff Gordon with a speed of 160.306 m.p.h., running the October 11, 1999 race in a time of 3 hours, 7 minutes, and 31 seconds. Fred Lorenzen has the record for a 400 mile race (1964), and Bobby Labonte has the record for a 600 mile event (1995), but their speeds (134.559 m.p.h. and 151.952 m.p.h. respectively) do not approach Gordon’s.

The oldest winner at Lowe’sis  Cale Yarborough, winning the 1985 Miller 500 at age 46 years, 6 months, and 9 days. The youngest? Jeff Gordon, who at age 22 years, 9 months and 25 days won the 1994 Coca- Cola 600.

A record number of yellow flags waved here 22 times on May 29, 2005. 0 cautions flew on May 21, 1961.

“The 600″ is NASCAR’s answer to a marathon event. Fuel mileage smarts helped pave the way to Casey Mear’s maiden victory last year. The fact the J.J. Yeley and Kyle Petty finished second and third tells yo this race’s outcome can be a little different.

As I mentioned earlier, drivers and crews have to be prepared for changing conditions as the race goes on. You can figure that about the first 2 and a half hours will be in dwindling daylight, and could go as late as another hour to an hour and half under the lights. A driver’s endurance will also be tested. I don’t know how you’d measure a driver’s ability to focus long-term, but it’s not hard to imagine you will need plenty of mental and physical fuel in the tank to take the checkered flag at about 10 p.m.

No doubt Kasey Kahne (who for those of you in Rio Linda won last week’s all-star race at LMS) also has demonstrated mastery of the speedway by sweeping the 2006 races,  will be poised for victory. The aforementioned Gordon and Johnson have their record of success, plus Ryan Newman has a pile of poles. Some other racers to keep your eye on who’ve run well here are Dale Earnhardt Jr., Matt Kenseth, Bobby Labonte, and Mark Martin.

Saturday- I’ll offer up my predicted winner in the “Fearless Forecast.”

NASCAR Terminology- A NASCAR For Dummies Primer

Bite: We have two definitions for this term. (1) “Round of bite” describes the turning or adjusting of a car’s jacking screws found at each wheel. “Weight jacking” distributes the car’s weight at each wheel. (2) Adhesion of a tire to the track surface.

Tri-oval: A racetrack that has a “hump” or “fifth turn” in addition to the standard four corners. Not to be confused with a triangle shaped speedway, which has only three distinct corners.

Stagger: The difference in size between the tires on the left and right sides of a car. Because of a tire’s makeup, slight variations in circumference result. Stagger between right-side and left-side tires may range from less than a half inch to more than an inch. Stagger only applies to bias-ply tires and not radials.   

That’s all for this week. Be sure to thank a vet as we celebrate their sacrifices this weekend. Until race day, be sure to take it easy in the turns and keep it off the wall!

Fearless Forecast: Who Will Be “The Star” Among Stars?

A million dollar prize ought to be enough motivation for even the most successful of drivers hyped up to make this a premier all-star event. We’re talking about a dash for cash under the lights in NASCAR’s own back yard.

Zeroing in on a favorite requires a little look at history and taking into consderation who might be inclined to run well at the mile and a half speedway.

In terms of history, we’ve got the likes of Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson, Mark Martin, Matt Kenseth, Ryan Newman, Jeff Gordon (who’s won this event 3 times), Dale Earnhardt Jr. have all won the all-star race. What also has to help Martin’s chances is the fact that this will be his 19th consecutive appearance, tying the record held by Rusty Wallace. I guess what I’m sayin here is that because this race is slightly different from a typical Cup event, with a shorter race and a smaller field, there might be ways to parlay that knowledge into an advantage.

As far as success at Lowe’s is concerned, Lowe’s Motor Speedway is the “House that Jimmie Johnson Built.” In addition to his all-star win in 2006, he’s had incredible points race success here at the track that bears the name of his primary sponsor. It sure raises the eyebrows of the conspiracy theorists. Johnson’s teammate and mentor Gordon also has his share of success at Lowe’s with 4 points race wins ON TOP OF the all-star wins. Again, Mark Martin shows up in the mix with 4 Cup race wins, as well as 2 Nationwide Series wins at the Charlotte track.

But history will only take you so far. Teams change and evolve and so do the drivers. Let us also not forget that the the “CoT” also changes things as well. We have to look for any clues we can find from THIS season to help our prognostication. I want to know who’s performed well lately on the high speed tracks. When factoring that in- names such as Dale Earnhardt Jr., Kyle Busch, Ryan Newman, Tony Stewart, Kasey Kahne and Carl Edwards come to mind. I’m thinking about top performers from Daytona, Talladega, Atlanta and Texas to name a few. I’ve gotta think that there smaller field (24) will make speed an even greater factor.

The shorter race will also benefit those who tend to go on mad bursts. Shrub, Junior, Smoke, and Cousin Carl and Denny Hamlin all have their 20-30 lap runs where they just look like juggernauts. If a driver can put it together at the right time, he may just make a route out of tonight’s race.

Then there’s the aggressive and the liberties one may take because it’s “all or nothing”, and because this is not for points. I will predict right now that Kyle Busch will NOT win this race. Don’t think for a moment that Junior or more likely his older brother Kurt might not “loosen him up” if they get near each other. Depending how hard or how obvious the incident is, the offending driver may get nothing worse than “probation.” I’d probably do it if I were somebody, though you don’t want to ruin your own chances in doing so. If that doesn’t happen- I still expect some guys that are known for their aggressiveness to really push the envelope.

The fans should be in for a fun night in the same vein of the Bud Shoot Out.

Oh…you want the winner. I’m gonna go with “Junebug.” Why? Think back to his performance at the Shootout or the Gatorade Duals or any shorter length event. He rocks! If Earnhardt has ha any problem this year, it’s just that his car seems to get away from him and his team as the race wears on. On the other hand, you take the first 100 laps of just about any race this year and you will find #88 at or near the front.

Other possibilities include Busch, Tony Stewart (who’s had great runs of his own), Jimmie,  and the Evernham Dodges always look good in these events. You also can’t forget the ever-competitive Carl Edwards- who tends to be RIGHT THERE with Shrub and Junior.

A lot can happen. And it probably will.

Check it out!  

 

Pull Those Belts Tight! NASCAR Sprint All-Star Edition

What’s Next: NASCAR Sprint All-Star Race, Saturday May 17, 2008, Lowes’ Motor Speedway, Charlotte, North Carolina. NASCAR Sprint Showdown (”Race In” Race)- 7:30 Eastern, 4:30 Pacific. All-Star Race starts 9 pm EDT, 6 PM PDT. Broadcast: Television-  SPEED Channel, Radio- MRN, Sirius Satellite Radio.

Track Facts: Lowe’s Motor Speedway is a 1.5 mile oval track with 24-degree banking in the turns, and 5-degrees in the straightaways.

This is the best All-Star Event in Professional Sports. Keep in mind this is from the perspective of an 18 year sports media member who’s covered numerous “stick and ball” events and also has a 30 year history as a sports fan. No other sport’s all-star event even comes close.

NASCAR’s All-Star Challenge has given us many GREAT moments: Think about this- this race has given us Dale Earnhardt’s “pass in the grass” in 1987, Mark Martin’s 1998 victory after leader Jeff Gordon ran out of gas, Gordon’s 2001 win in a back-up car, and Darrell Waltrip’s win in a somewhat mysterious car whose engine blew after crossing the finish line.

The other sports can’t compete. Baseball’s All-Star game comes close, but there’s that goofy rule that all teams must be represented and deserving players get left out. The game also has the same problem any other baseball game has- it’s kind of slow. (I still love baseball though). The NBA All-Star game is a little fake. The players act like matadors on defense to make the game more thrilling, but I think that just lacks the integrity of the way a real basketball game is played. The Pro Bowl? The problem with the NFL’s post-season all-star event is the fact many good players are terribly beat up and often choose to sit out, and thus we miss seeing all of the best players.

NASCAR’s All-Star race offers all the thrills and spills of a regular NASCAR event, plus the incentive of a million dollar winner’s purse. No “mailing it in” here! 

The lead for all-time wins is a tie between two legends- Dale Earnhardt (who won in 1987, 1990, and 1993) and Jeff Gordon (who won in 1995, 1997 and 2001) have won 3 all star races. Jimmie Johnson, Mark Martin, Davey Allison and Terry Labonte have two wins apiece.

The field is already comprised of 21 drivers- 17 who won races in 2007 & 2008, 2 (Martin and Junior) who won previous all-star championships, 2 (Dale Jarrett and Bobby Labonte) are in the field because they are past Cup champions.

Three more will get in the field by the green flag tomorrow night. The top two finishers in the “All-Star Showdown” will also get in, as well as the driver who gets the most votes in fan balloting.

No for the burning question- Will somebody put Kyle Busch in the wall? People are still talking about “Shrub’s” bad boy rep, and the fact that he keeps running up wins. People must also remember that the younger Busch wrecked out his older brother in last year’s event won by Kevin Harvick. My question is will Kurt retaliate? Hmmm.

It’s gonna be a great race. There’s no doubt the racing will be hard and it will be fun.

Don’t miss it!

Stop by tomorrow, because I will make a “Fearless Forecast” on who the winner might be!

 

Fearless Forecast: Will a Dodge Win at Darlington?

The “Lady In Black” will test the field like no other. It’s funny, I used to think the short tracks were the most challenging, and that the road courses provided unique hurdles of their own. While that’s still true, Darlington has zoomed to the top of my list as NASCAR’s most difficult track.

Because of that, Darlington may have just become my favorite.

This track has handed out more stripes than a prison uniformer. The list of people who’ve tattoed their cars looks suspiciously like the all-star field. Whether ir racing or practice- Jimmie Johnson, Kasey Kahne, Carl Edwards and Kyle Busch are among the drivers Darlington has collected this week.

The track is a temptress. Drivers can get up to those high speeds, and you’ve got all that banking, but you’ve got those narrow spots where you just can’t do that 3-wide racing that you can in a place like Richmond. Shrub found this out the hard way last night.

Now I’m not saying anything about the mental capacity of the following drivers, but I will say that Darlington does not suffer fools. Given that, I expect a slightly different result than what we’ve seen lately. Young, hyper-aggressive drivers like Klye Busch, David Ragan, A.J. Allmendinger and Brian Vickers will likely struggle here.

Drivers with “controlled” aggressiveness will likely be fine, provided their luck holds up. I’m looking for good efforts from many of the “usual suspects.” Jeff Gordon (7 Darlington wins), pole-sitter Greg Biffle (2 checkereds here), Tony Stewart (last night’s Nationwide winner), Jimmie Johnson (2004 winner) should all do well. I’m even expecting a good race from Dale Earnhardt Jr., who believe it or not, has not won at Darlington.

History is also on the side of some other veterans. Former champ Bobby Labonte was won a race on the 1.366 miler, Mark Martin has had tons of Nationwide success at the South Carolina, Ryan Newman finished 4th here last year, Kasey Kahne has won poles galore, and Newman’s teammate Kurt Busch has cracked the top 5 in qualifying. Make no mistake that this is very much a track position race. I wouldn’t want to be anywhere near the guys that I mentioned earlier who are young and perhaps overly aggressive.  

I find it interesting that the Dodge boys always qualify well where speed matters. There are 3 Dodges in the top 10, and some at the back of the field who got there by being too quick and losing control.

A Dodge will win today. “What?” You Say? This is why I call it the “Fearless Forecast.”I mean everybody expects the likes Junior, Smoke, Gordon and Jimmie to do well. There’s nothing fearless about that.

It will be too easy to overlook the veterans like Martin, Labonte, and maybe even Jeff Burton. But I think Kurt Busch is overdue. You’ll note he’s been curiously quiet since Daytona, running with a ton of bad luck since. Not only will he do well, but so will Labonte and Newman.  The Penske duo, however, have the best equipment of all the Dodges.

My top five (in no particular order) are as follows:Junior, Smoke, Ryan Newman, Kurt Busch, and Greg Biffle. And the winner will be……

Kurt Busch! That’s why I call it the “Fearless Forecast.” Either I will look like a genius or a raging fool!

 

Race Re-Cap: Rumble In Richmond

I suspect this scene will be happening in a hotel somewhere tonight. “Yeah, I’d like to get a room for one night.” “Uh, my name, Butz. Seymour Butz.” Kyle Busch’s mug is going to be hard to hide, but he’d better do what he can to mask his identity until he gets of Virginia after his fender bender with Dale Earnhardt Jr. late in the Crown Royal Presents the Dan Lowry 400 in Richmond, Virginia. The anger I’m seeing is just about frying my computer.

You can’t blame Junior Nation for being mad. Junebug looked like he was a winner after Denny Hamlin’s tire went flat. Up until the point of impact, it was a good old-fashioned bump ‘n’ grind short track drag race between Earnhardt and Busch. Then it happened. The “18″ and “88″ collided, sending Earnhardt spinning off into another disappointing finish, and opening the door to victory for Clint Bowyer, who picked up his 2nd career NASCAR Sprint Cup win.

Everybody has their own opinion about the “incident” and I’ve got my own, which I will keep to myself. Let me just say it was a bummer to see two of the best cars in the field (Hamlin and Junior) finish outside the top 5 after the night they had.

Earlier today, I said it would be either Hamlin or Junior that would win. For about 373 laps, Hamlin was proving me right. Everything Denny needed from his car in terms of a set-up he had. It was setting up to be a feel good story that would have only been eclipsed by Earnhardt ending his victory drought: the local boy wins near his hometown of Chesterfield, Virginia. Hamlin and crew chief Mike Ford were simpatico, and then that danged tire went down, opening a Pandora’s box for what would happen next.

I find it a little hard to be angry at Denny, but it’s too bad he didn’t get off the track for new tires once he knew the tire was going down. At the end of the day, I think he would have ended up at the same place. Hamlin has been hot up until now, but there’s no doubt we were exposed to Denny’s Achilles’ heel.  The #11 FedEx has this maddening tendency to beat itself with silly mistakes. Don’t get me wrong, the tire wasn’t his fault, but not getting off the track sooner was- whether it was Hamlin’s decision or Ford’s.

Give props to Clint Bowyer for the win. Bowyer’s finish serves as the new “Exhibit A” as to why one should never give up. The #07 Chevy hung around in the spirit and tradition of David Pearson to emerge a victor. Given how things played out, it seems fitting that a guy that nobody seems to truly dislike comes out with the win.

My “Rocky Balboa” Award will be shared by Jeff Gordon and Kevin Harvick. Gordon started 43rd, but fought and clawed his way towards the front- giving him a decent end to what was a horrid weekend for his team. Harvick did a great job of hanging tough and staying hungry, even though it seemed apparent his car had recurring issues.

In addition to be bummed for Hamlin and Earnhardt, I was also bummed for Patrick Carpentier. He qualified well and was doing a good job of gaining on-the-job experience until he got collected in a big-time way in what started out as the Dave Blaney-J.J. Yeley incident. Talk about being in the wrong place at the wrong time!

We saw good racing tonight- it’s too bad it finished like this. While I lean more towards a “race incident” opinion on the Earnhardt-Busch affair, there can be no question Kyle Busch has found himself on the same unfortunate path his older brother Kurt took a way years back. After tonight, I’m quite sure his list of detractors has increased exponentially, and further mars the reputation of one of NASCAR’s most talented young drivers. Give credit to Junior for handling the post-race T.V. interview with grace, there’s no question his entire demeanor was heavy with disappointment. Nobody would have blamed him for running over to Busch and popping him, but that’s never been his style, and I’m proud of him for it.

Wouldn’t it have been cool if Mark Martin had won? Whatever he’s got in that car he ran in Phoenix and this place, he needs to bottle that up!

It also would have been fun for Bobby Labonte to pull out a win in the “Speed Racer” Dodge. 

As for Busch, well…..for my part I like his driving and I don’t think he’s half the jerk some think he is. BUT tonight’s incident won’t help his case or mine.

For every driver and fan disappointed by tonight’s finish, there is always the new hope brought by the promise of another week at the “Dark Lady” of Darlington. If it goes next week like it’s been going lately- it’s gonna be a show and a half. 

Fearless Forecast: The Winner At Richmond Will Be….

Let’s be scientific about this. I respect all 43 guys in the field, but let’s be real- we can eliminate 15 drivers right off the top. we’re talking about the guys in the line-up who’ve never won a Cup race. That includes the likes of David Ragan, Reed Sorenson and Patrick Carpentier-who did put forward good qualifying efforts. To me, this place is just a little too tough for a guy to get his first win. This whittles the field down to 28.

Then there’s the guys, that while capable, just don’t have the equipment to win. There’s about another 4 guys here who’ve won races, but because of things like funding and equipment- they have as much chance as a kerosene cat in Hell with gasoline boxers on. Kyle Petty, Sterling Marlin, and Joe Nemechek are among the racers that fall into this category. OK- now we’re down to 24.

Among the 43 entries are guy who just don’t win at short tracks. This includes all the Roush Fenway guys. I’m not sure what’s missing in their “Car of Today” short track program, but something’s missing. The you’ve got guys like Michael Waltrip, who is to Super Speedways like Boris Said is to road courses. I find 8 drivers in this group- taking the possibilities down to 16. Hard charger Kyle Busch is also in this group. He’ too aggressive on short tracks. You need some patience to win here.

Let’s not forget about the “luck factor.” There’s always somebody out there at any given time who arejust unlucky. Tony Stewart is having a run of bad luck. Bobby Labonte is another one. Overall, this group of guys number 4, so now we have 12 drivers to pick from.

Among the drivers who are left are guys who have the best chance of winning today. Guys who are “in their element” in Richmond. I’m talking about Kevin Harvick and Clint Bowyer from RCR, Mark Martin from DEI, Kasey Kahne from Gillett Evernham, Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr. from HMS (Jeff Gordon is one of my “bad luck” guys), and Ryan Newman from Penske- as well as Denny Hamlin from Joe Gibbs.

Frankly, it comes down to two guys- Denny Hamlin and Junior. Earnhardt has won 3 races at Richmond, and he’s been good enough to win this year, even though he hasn’t broken the spell. Now, I know that Hamlin is going to try to win from the pole- which isn’t easy. I also know the the “law of averages” are against a weekend sweep and he won last night. Yet there’s an “X” factor in all of this, I think the “11′ car has it. So in light of that, I predict…

DENNY HAMLIN WILL WIN AT RICHMOND- fulfilling his dream of winning at home. The odds may be a bit long, but that’s why we call it the “fearless forecast.”

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