Kurt Busch

NASCAR Season Midway Review

Well, Kyle Busch capped off the season’s midway point at Daytona with his 10th career win and his sixth this season.

NASCAR’s premier series is in their first full year with the Car of Today, and it has undergone some criticism.  It actually got so out of hand that NASCAR President Mike Helton called a mandatory meeting to tell drivers to basically, “Shut up and drive.”

The first half of the Sprint Cup Series season has provided NASCAR fans with some good, bad, and very ugly races.

On paper, for the most part, this is a record breaking season for competition.  The California race had a record 33 lead changes, the Coca-Cola 600 had 2,580 green flag passes, that was up almost 900 from the 2007 Coca-Cola 600.  The Michigan race tied a track-best 3,204 green flag passes.

NASCAR is getting more coverage than ever.  TV Ratings are up for the most part from last year.  Although some tracks are struggling with attendance, tracks are still selling out.

NASCAR is also going through some economic hardships.  Sponsors willing to fork out millions of dollars a year are few and far between.  Teams are shutting down, Petty Enterprises sold 50% of their company to Boston Ventures.

The competiton is also even, all four manufacturer’s have won at least three races.  All four manufacturer’s are represented in the top 12 in driver points.  There has been 10 different race winners, 11 different pole winners, 74 drivers have attempted to qualify for at least one Sprint Cup Series race, and 46 driver had led at least one lap.  All evidence that NASCAR has accomplished one goal — make competitors and manufacturer’s even.  Chevy no longer has a stangle hold on the field.  In fact, the first Chevy in the top last week at Daytona will Dale Earnhardt Jr. who finished 8th.

Also, Hendrick Motorsports is apparently struggling.  Despite the fact that they only have two wins, and have three of their drivers in the top six in points.  At this point in the season, Hendrick Motorsports drivers had 10 wins.

Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, and Ryan Newman all led the points standings for the first time in their careers this year.  And, Kasey Kahne and Greg Biffle are back!  They are both back in the top 12, and Kahne has two wins so far.

And don’t forget.  The most-popular driver is showing that he indeeds deserves the attention.  He ended a two year winless streak with a win at Michigan, he has matched his 2007 numbers already, which is answering the question on how Dale Jr. would perform in 2008 after leaving DEI in 2007.  The answer — Great!

Speaking of DEI, recently, sources close to DEI are reporting that DEI could be sold to Max Siegel for as much as $130 million, which would take Teresa out of the picture.  This is still developing, but could get very interesting.

And, you can’t talk about the 2008 season without talking about Silly Season — 2009 edition.

Rumors have been circulating and some are very tasteful.

Sources yesterday confirmed that Joe Gibbs Racing will go to four teams, and Juan Pablo Montoya would be the driver.  Now, wouldn’t that be a combination.  Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, and Juan Pablo Montoya.  Add Joey Logano in the 20 after Stewart leaves to buy into Haas CNC Racing with Ryan Newman as a teammate, and you get headlines for the rest of the year.

Sources close to Tony Stewart say that he is expected to announce his future plans as soon as Indianapolis in two weeks.

As Silly Season continues to unfold, and the season heats up for the chase — stay tuned to NASCAR FanZone for all your NASCAR updates.

Pull Those Belts Tight! (Race Preview) The “Bermuda Triangle” Edition

Up Next: The Pocono 500, Sunday, June 8, 2008 at Pocono Raceway, Long Pond, Pennsylvania. Green flag: 2 p.m. EDT, 11 a.m. PDT. Broadcast: TNT- TV with Bill Weber, Wally Dallenbach & Kyle Petty. Radio Broadcast on MRN & Sirius Satellite Radio.

Track Facts- The first race ran here on August 4, 1974. Richard Petty took the checkered flag on the track that started out as a .75 miler when it was opened in 1968. The track was re-done in 1971.

Pocono Raceway is a 2.5 mile tri-oval track nicknamed “The Bermuda Triangle.” This track looks like a coat hanger with a front stretch of 3,740 feet, a short stretch of 1,780 feet and a back stretch of 3,055 feet. There is no banking on the straights, and 6 to 14 degrees of banking in the turns.

Track Records: Bill Elliott takes the honors as the leading winner at Pocono with 5 to his credit. Since Elliott is semi-retired, we should also mention that Jeff Gordon has 4 victories here as well.

Last year- Jeff Gordon and Kurt Busch won the Pocono events. Gordon won a rain-shortened Spring race, just edging out Ryan Newman in a controversial finish in which some fans felt favoritism was shown towards Gordon.

The qualifying record is held by Kasey Kahne. Kahne ran a lap time of 52.164 seconds on June 11, 2004 with a speed of 172.533 miles per hour. Bill Elliott and Ken Schrader have captured the most poles with 5 each. Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Ryan Newman won poles in 2007.

The fastest race was run by Rusty Wallace. The “Blue Duece” won the July 21, 1996 Miller 500 with a time of 3 hours, 27 minutes, and 3 seconds.

The oldest winner at Pocono is…..who else? Harry Gant. “Mr. September” won the June 7, 1990 AC Spark Plug 500 at the age of 50 years, 5 months, and 7 days. The youngest winner?….who else? Jeff Gordon, at age 24 years, 10 months, and 12 days. The win came at the June 16, 1996 Teamwork 500.

The caution flag waved a record 13 times twice- the most recent in June, 2005. The fewest “yellows” waved in the July, 1978. 1 waved on that day.

Some have referred to Pocono as a “drivers track.” Each turn provides its own unique set of challenges. The high RPM’s can contribute to a large number of engine failures. Six weeks separate the two Pocono events. Commentator Ricky Craven has commented that most teams will use the same set-up for the August event as the June race. It’s an idea that seems to work as Denny Hamlin swept the Pocono races in 2006 (he also captured both poles), Jimmie Johnson did in 2004, Tim Richmond did in 1986 and Bill Elliott in 1985.

This will kick off a challenging 6 week stretch for drivers as they encounter a different track style every week. After this race, the tour will move on to an intermediate in Michigan, a road course in Sonoma, a 1-miler in New Hampshire, a super speedway at Daytona, and a mile-and-a-half tri-oval at Chicago.

Other active winners include Bobby Labonte (3), Denny Hamlin (2), Jimmie Johnson (2), Kurt Busch (2), Ryan Newman (1), and Tony Stewart (1). Race analyst Kyle Petty has a win at Pocono too.

Check out my “Fearless Forecast” this Saturday, and I’ll offer up my forecast for the race winner.

NASCAR Terminology- A NASCAR For Dummies Primer

Contact patch: Sounds like a name for a football field. Actually, the “contact patch” is the portion of the tire that makes contact with the racing surface. The size of each tire’s contact patch changes as the car is driven.

Crankshaft: Before you get the idea that this is what FOX announcer Chris Myers calls pit report Dick Berggren, a crankshaft is “The rotating shaft within the engine that delivers the power from the pistons to the flywheel, and from there to the transmission.”

Magnaflux: What this is not is the condition you get from eating the red hot dogs at Martinsville. Magnaflux is “Short for “magnetic particle inspection.” A procedure for checking all ferrous (steel) parts (suspension pieces, connecting rods, cylinder heads, etc.) for cracks and other defects by utilizing a solution of metal particles and fluorescent dye and black light. Surface cracks will appear as red lines.” 

That’s all for now. Until next time “Keep it off the walls.”

 

Fearless Forecast: Empire Strikes Back

It just seems like certain TEAMS own certain race tracks. It’s kind of odd how it works that way. I mean you expect certain drivers to have a particularly good feel for certain surfaces and distances. Jeff Gordon does very well on the short tracks and road courses. Bobby Labonte has 6 of his 21 career wins at Atlanta. You may not be able to count on Michael Waltrip to win too many races, but he’s a darn good bet on super speedways, as well as his former teammate- Dale Earnhardt Jr. Kasey Kahne rules on the intermediates, as does fellow young gun Carl Edwards. Speaking of Edwards, he’s known as the “King of Concrete.”

Dover is a concrete track, a one miler with a short track feel, loads of banking and changing elevations, giving it a roller coaster ride effect. It’s interesting to know then, that while Edwards is ordinarily awesome on concrete tracks (Nashville, for example), Edwards is just well,, ordinary at Dover. His driver rating of just over 98 puts him at #8 among active drivers. His starting position of 14th is not something get all tingly over either. At the same time, this is a track where Roush-Fenway has a solid track record. For tomorrow’s race, Roush driver Greg Biffle is one the pole and Jamie Mc Murray is in the #5 spot. Biffle has the best driver rating here at 113, while another Roush veteran, Matt Kenseth is second with a rating of 111.  Just about the only driver that’s an unknown quantity at Dover is David Ragan- who’s been on a roll lately.

Speaking of drivers on a roll, Kasey Kahne is coming on an all-star win and a trip to Victory Lane at the Coca-Cola 600. Kahnehas a poor track record at Dover, with a driver rating of 86. His starting position of 15th is nothing to write home about.

As far as driver ratings go, the top 5 at Dover are Biffle, Kenseth, Mark Martin, Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch. Something tells me “Rowdy” won’t be that great this week. Just a feeling.

Bringing up Johnson’s name reminds us that “Team Hendrick” is strong here too. You don’t see Jeff Gordon’s name on that top 5 list, but the veteran leads active drivers at Dover with 4 wins (Gordon is joined at the top by Bill Elliott and Mark Martin). Johnson has 3 wins here, and the newest addition to the HMS stable, Dale Jr. has one of his 17 career wins on this track (the MBNA Cal Ripken 400 in 2001).

In fact, I’m going to say that a Hendrick driver is going to pull off the win. A driver ready to bounce back. It’s tempting to go with Jeff Gordon, but I’m going to say that….

Jimmie Johnson will win tomorrow’s race.

The Lowe’s “48″ will start out of the #4 hole, and all the adjustments being made seem to be working for Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus. Johnson, a two-time defending champion is hungry after some less-than-satisfying recent runs. Johnson has a way of doing constructive things with that kind of hunger. Hendrick has only one victory in 2008 after owning the NASCAR schedule in 2007, but I think they’ll add another win tomorrow- whether it’s Johnson or Gordon.

I also look for other drivers to bounce back tomorrow. Kurt Busch ran some great laps last week and Matt Kenseth isn’t giving up. Never give up on Tony Stewart, who has two wins at DIS.    

Now a sure sign of a Kahne resurgence would be a win here.

Other young guns that bear watching include the ubiquitous Kyle Busch, A.J. Allmendinger- who qualified in the 8th spot, and A.J.’s Red Bull teammate Brian Vickers. The North Carolinian qualified 6th and was wicked fast at Lowe’s before the infamous “wheel incident.” Ryan Newman’s looking good, in spite of all the complaint he’s recently logged in his Yahoo! blog.

Drivers seem to have a lot of fun at this track. It also seems that the shorter the distance with the new car, the better the racing.

I can’t wait. 

 

Race Re-Cap: Raisin’ Kahne (Here’s to The End of a Long Dry Spell)

Kasey Kahne is back! Fans are witness to a transformation as a rising NASCAR star gets his career back on track. It’s hard to believe that it was only two short years since Kasey Kahne won 6 races in one season. After a winless streak of 52 races, the 5th year driver follows up an encouraging All-Star effort with a win in the 2008 edition of the Coca- Cola 600. If you include last week’s non-points win, Kahne won his 4th race at Lowe’s. It bears repeating: if Lowe’s is Jimmie Johnson’s house, then Kasey Kahne must be renting out a floor from Jimmie.

Kahne looked like a finisher from the green flag. I have to admit, the action was slow enough in the opening laps, I snuck in a power nap. I awoke to find I didn’t miss much. However- over time- I’ve learned some races run in stages and it pays to stick around. After “Rowdy Shrub” Busch played Pied Piper for the first 100 laps or so, things began to get interesting. Kahne hung around, but we got looks at Brian Vickers up front, Kurt Busch looked as good as I’ve seen since Daytona, and Jimmie Johnson and Junior looked predictably good. We had a lot of drama and craziness along the way, but Kahne ran a smart race and he was there to capitalize on troubles for Stewart, Earnhardt and Busch. “The Coke” is a battle of attrition, and the team of Kahne, Kenny Francis and Ray Evernham had it all going for them today.

“The Rocky Balboa Award” has to go to Lil ”E.” I must admit that while Junior was ”rolling fly and lookin’ phat” there was a part of me saying “I wonder how it’s going to fall apart on Junior this week.” And sure enough, Earnhardt brushes the wall and gets rammed by J.J. Yeley. BUT after all that, Dale hung in there and pulled out a 5th place. He will win soon Junior Nation, you can bank on it. Just remember, Junebug is 3rd in points, finishing races and running well. I’d take that over Kyle Petty’s problems any day of the week. Kevin Harvick also had another solid finish, in spite of the fact that “Happy” once again seemed to have a mediocre race car. Harvick looks like he’s been taking lessons in survival from teammate Jeff Burton.

What a bummer for Brian Vickers. It’s obvious that the “83″ really likes Lowe’s and he sure looked like a top 5 today, but what a wreck! That crash will make its way to plenty of crash montages for years to come. Poor David Gilliland takes the loose wheel on the hood and it lands in the infield with the campers. It’s kinda funny, but I’m just glad no one got hurt. It was also an unlucky day for Jimmie Johnson (HMS’ first blown motor since the Bronze Age), and Tony Stewart (blown tire).

It would have been nice to see an old hoss like Mark Martin, Dave Blaney or Bobby Labonte win today, but by the same token I’m happy for Kasey Kahne.

There was a lot of wheel and tire troubles today. It will be interesting to hear what the drivers have to say about this over the course of the next several days.

I may be a West Coaster and get to see the race earlier than a lot of you, but even I was wornout by race’s end.

It wasn’t the best race I’d ever seen, but perhaps we can say it was the best mile and a half race we’ve had all year.

HAPPY MEMORIAL DAY! AND TO ALL YOU VETS OUT THERE, WE SALUTE YOU. THANKS TO YOU, WE CAN ALL ARGUE ABOUT NASCAR INSTEAD OF TILLING CROP IN KOMRADE PUTIN’S GARDEN.

   

Fearless Forecast: Who Will Be “The Star” Among Stars?

A million dollar prize ought to be enough motivation for even the most successful of drivers hyped up to make this a premier all-star event. We’re talking about a dash for cash under the lights in NASCAR’s own back yard.

Zeroing in on a favorite requires a little look at history and taking into consderation who might be inclined to run well at the mile and a half speedway.

In terms of history, we’ve got the likes of Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson, Mark Martin, Matt Kenseth, Ryan Newman, Jeff Gordon (who’s won this event 3 times), Dale Earnhardt Jr. have all won the all-star race. What also has to help Martin’s chances is the fact that this will be his 19th consecutive appearance, tying the record held by Rusty Wallace. I guess what I’m sayin here is that because this race is slightly different from a typical Cup event, with a shorter race and a smaller field, there might be ways to parlay that knowledge into an advantage.

As far as success at Lowe’s is concerned, Lowe’s Motor Speedway is the “House that Jimmie Johnson Built.” In addition to his all-star win in 2006, he’s had incredible points race success here at the track that bears the name of his primary sponsor. It sure raises the eyebrows of the conspiracy theorists. Johnson’s teammate and mentor Gordon also has his share of success at Lowe’s with 4 points race wins ON TOP OF the all-star wins. Again, Mark Martin shows up in the mix with 4 Cup race wins, as well as 2 Nationwide Series wins at the Charlotte track.

But history will only take you so far. Teams change and evolve and so do the drivers. Let us also not forget that the the “CoT” also changes things as well. We have to look for any clues we can find from THIS season to help our prognostication. I want to know who’s performed well lately on the high speed tracks. When factoring that in- names such as Dale Earnhardt Jr., Kyle Busch, Ryan Newman, Tony Stewart, Kasey Kahne and Carl Edwards come to mind. I’m thinking about top performers from Daytona, Talladega, Atlanta and Texas to name a few. I’ve gotta think that there smaller field (24) will make speed an even greater factor.

The shorter race will also benefit those who tend to go on mad bursts. Shrub, Junior, Smoke, and Cousin Carl and Denny Hamlin all have their 20-30 lap runs where they just look like juggernauts. If a driver can put it together at the right time, he may just make a route out of tonight’s race.

Then there’s the aggressive and the liberties one may take because it’s “all or nothing”, and because this is not for points. I will predict right now that Kyle Busch will NOT win this race. Don’t think for a moment that Junior or more likely his older brother Kurt might not “loosen him up” if they get near each other. Depending how hard or how obvious the incident is, the offending driver may get nothing worse than “probation.” I’d probably do it if I were somebody, though you don’t want to ruin your own chances in doing so. If that doesn’t happen- I still expect some guys that are known for their aggressiveness to really push the envelope.

The fans should be in for a fun night in the same vein of the Bud Shoot Out.

Oh…you want the winner. I’m gonna go with “Junebug.” Why? Think back to his performance at the Shootout or the Gatorade Duals or any shorter length event. He rocks! If Earnhardt has ha any problem this year, it’s just that his car seems to get away from him and his team as the race wears on. On the other hand, you take the first 100 laps of just about any race this year and you will find #88 at or near the front.

Other possibilities include Busch, Tony Stewart (who’s had great runs of his own), Jimmie,  and the Evernham Dodges always look good in these events. You also can’t forget the ever-competitive Carl Edwards- who tends to be RIGHT THERE with Shrub and Junior.

A lot can happen. And it probably will.

Check it out!  

 

Pull Those Belts Tight! NASCAR Sprint All-Star Edition

What’s Next: NASCAR Sprint All-Star Race, Saturday May 17, 2008, Lowes’ Motor Speedway, Charlotte, North Carolina. NASCAR Sprint Showdown (”Race In” Race)- 7:30 Eastern, 4:30 Pacific. All-Star Race starts 9 pm EDT, 6 PM PDT. Broadcast: Television-  SPEED Channel, Radio- MRN, Sirius Satellite Radio.

Track Facts: Lowe’s Motor Speedway is a 1.5 mile oval track with 24-degree banking in the turns, and 5-degrees in the straightaways.

This is the best All-Star Event in Professional Sports. Keep in mind this is from the perspective of an 18 year sports media member who’s covered numerous “stick and ball” events and also has a 30 year history as a sports fan. No other sport’s all-star event even comes close.

NASCAR’s All-Star Challenge has given us many GREAT moments: Think about this- this race has given us Dale Earnhardt’s “pass in the grass” in 1987, Mark Martin’s 1998 victory after leader Jeff Gordon ran out of gas, Gordon’s 2001 win in a back-up car, and Darrell Waltrip’s win in a somewhat mysterious car whose engine blew after crossing the finish line.

The other sports can’t compete. Baseball’s All-Star game comes close, but there’s that goofy rule that all teams must be represented and deserving players get left out. The game also has the same problem any other baseball game has- it’s kind of slow. (I still love baseball though). The NBA All-Star game is a little fake. The players act like matadors on defense to make the game more thrilling, but I think that just lacks the integrity of the way a real basketball game is played. The Pro Bowl? The problem with the NFL’s post-season all-star event is the fact many good players are terribly beat up and often choose to sit out, and thus we miss seeing all of the best players.

NASCAR’s All-Star race offers all the thrills and spills of a regular NASCAR event, plus the incentive of a million dollar winner’s purse. No “mailing it in” here! 

The lead for all-time wins is a tie between two legends- Dale Earnhardt (who won in 1987, 1990, and 1993) and Jeff Gordon (who won in 1995, 1997 and 2001) have won 3 all star races. Jimmie Johnson, Mark Martin, Davey Allison and Terry Labonte have two wins apiece.

The field is already comprised of 21 drivers- 17 who won races in 2007 & 2008, 2 (Martin and Junior) who won previous all-star championships, 2 (Dale Jarrett and Bobby Labonte) are in the field because they are past Cup champions.

Three more will get in the field by the green flag tomorrow night. The top two finishers in the “All-Star Showdown” will also get in, as well as the driver who gets the most votes in fan balloting.

No for the burning question- Will somebody put Kyle Busch in the wall? People are still talking about “Shrub’s” bad boy rep, and the fact that he keeps running up wins. People must also remember that the younger Busch wrecked out his older brother in last year’s event won by Kevin Harvick. My question is will Kurt retaliate? Hmmm.

It’s gonna be a great race. There’s no doubt the racing will be hard and it will be fun.

Don’t miss it!

Stop by tomorrow, because I will make a “Fearless Forecast” on who the winner might be!

 

Race Re-Cap: Busch Dominant In Darlington

This weekend at Darlington broke the mold in so many ways. On the re-paved surface, we got a new qualifying record, a surprisingly low number of cautions and DNFs, and a new race speed record.

I couldn’t have been more off the mark. I picked the wrong Busch brother (Kurt) to win, and in a message board pool, I picked Kyle to finish dead last. I also figured that a lower division nameplate to do well here, I just didn’t expect it to be Ford instead of Dodge. I also said that the kids wouldn’t run well tonight. David Ragan and race winner Kyle Busch proved me wrong.

I was with Greg Biffle’s spotter. He suggested Biffle give up the lead early in the race to “Wild Thing” because there was no way he’d finish it. Once again, the guy who wouldn’t finish it was The #16 3-M Ford. The younger Busch, coming off a controversial 2ndplace finish in Richmond, looked like he was going to use his car up before he ever got to the final lap.

It’s weird to think that the guy with the most wins here (David Pearson) was known for conservation and cunning. The 23 year old from Las Vegas runs more in the tradition of Fireball Roberts (notorious for using up his cars) and Junior Johnson (his racing philosophy was to get up front as quickly as possible…and stay there).

We may be witnessing a driver re-writing the rulebook for how races are won in the new car. Lord knows Busch broke all the old ones. Did you see all that brake dust coming out of his right front? And how about the way he was brushing the wall? I was expecting “Shrub” to bust into a chorus of the Johnny Cash tune “I Got Stripes” at any time. It just didn’t seem like he should win when you also throw in the pit violation and his complaints about his “pathetic” car. Oh, that Dave Blaney’s car could be that pathetic.

Besides Busch, a lot of guys we don’t talk much about should get some credit for a good race. Though the Roush team was plagued with wheel problems, upstart David Ragan finished 5th in addition to Edwards in 2nd. Teammate Matt Kenseth shook loose of a few demons and ended up 6th. Journeyman Dave Blaney ran his best race of the year in crossing the line 9th. Travis Kvapil, who’s making a Cup comeback this year after a solid career in the Craftsman Truck Series finished 8th on a fitting night where he was sponsored by Lafayette Ford, sponsor the #28 back in the Freddy Lorenzen days.

Some the other name drivers deserve a shout out for their performances. Carl Edwards’ finish is amazing when you consider he started at near the back of the field. Jeff Gordon has a great race to vault himself into the top 10 for the point standings. And Dale Jr.? Well, he was consistent again, racking up another top five and ready to strike if anyone faltered.

But above all else, Tony Stewart gets the “Rocky Balboa” Award- fighting, gouging and clawing his way to a respectable 21st after tangling with Elliott Sadler on the 3rd lap.

No- this race was definitely NOT what I expected- however, I was not disappointed with the racing and the thrill of a Saturday race under the lights.

 By the way- Happy Mother’s Day to the two best Moms in the world- my mom, Lenore Pittock of Keizer, Oregon. Thanks for believing in me, and letting me test out my ever-running mouthon your longsuffering ears. Then of course, there’s my lovely wife Lynnae, without whom I would not be a dad to the cutest kids in the world.

To all you Moms- HAPPY MOTHER’S DAY FROM THE BOYS AT ‘THE FINISH LINE.”Zooooom…

 

Fearless Forecast: Will a Dodge Win at Darlington?

The “Lady In Black” will test the field like no other. It’s funny, I used to think the short tracks were the most challenging, and that the road courses provided unique hurdles of their own. While that’s still true, Darlington has zoomed to the top of my list as NASCAR’s most difficult track.

Because of that, Darlington may have just become my favorite.

This track has handed out more stripes than a prison uniformer. The list of people who’ve tattoed their cars looks suspiciously like the all-star field. Whether ir racing or practice- Jimmie Johnson, Kasey Kahne, Carl Edwards and Kyle Busch are among the drivers Darlington has collected this week.

The track is a temptress. Drivers can get up to those high speeds, and you’ve got all that banking, but you’ve got those narrow spots where you just can’t do that 3-wide racing that you can in a place like Richmond. Shrub found this out the hard way last night.

Now I’m not saying anything about the mental capacity of the following drivers, but I will say that Darlington does not suffer fools. Given that, I expect a slightly different result than what we’ve seen lately. Young, hyper-aggressive drivers like Klye Busch, David Ragan, A.J. Allmendinger and Brian Vickers will likely struggle here.

Drivers with “controlled” aggressiveness will likely be fine, provided their luck holds up. I’m looking for good efforts from many of the “usual suspects.” Jeff Gordon (7 Darlington wins), pole-sitter Greg Biffle (2 checkereds here), Tony Stewart (last night’s Nationwide winner), Jimmie Johnson (2004 winner) should all do well. I’m even expecting a good race from Dale Earnhardt Jr., who believe it or not, has not won at Darlington.

History is also on the side of some other veterans. Former champ Bobby Labonte was won a race on the 1.366 miler, Mark Martin has had tons of Nationwide success at the South Carolina, Ryan Newman finished 4th here last year, Kasey Kahne has won poles galore, and Newman’s teammate Kurt Busch has cracked the top 5 in qualifying. Make no mistake that this is very much a track position race. I wouldn’t want to be anywhere near the guys that I mentioned earlier who are young and perhaps overly aggressive.  

I find it interesting that the Dodge boys always qualify well where speed matters. There are 3 Dodges in the top 10, and some at the back of the field who got there by being too quick and losing control.

A Dodge will win today. “What?” You Say? This is why I call it the “Fearless Forecast.”I mean everybody expects the likes Junior, Smoke, Gordon and Jimmie to do well. There’s nothing fearless about that.

It will be too easy to overlook the veterans like Martin, Labonte, and maybe even Jeff Burton. But I think Kurt Busch is overdue. You’ll note he’s been curiously quiet since Daytona, running with a ton of bad luck since. Not only will he do well, but so will Labonte and Newman.  The Penske duo, however, have the best equipment of all the Dodges.

My top five (in no particular order) are as follows:Junior, Smoke, Ryan Newman, Kurt Busch, and Greg Biffle. And the winner will be……

Kurt Busch! That’s why I call it the “Fearless Forecast.” Either I will look like a genius or a raging fool!

 

Race Re-Cap: Rumble In Richmond

I suspect this scene will be happening in a hotel somewhere tonight. “Yeah, I’d like to get a room for one night.” “Uh, my name, Butz. Seymour Butz.” Kyle Busch’s mug is going to be hard to hide, but he’d better do what he can to mask his identity until he gets of Virginia after his fender bender with Dale Earnhardt Jr. late in the Crown Royal Presents the Dan Lowry 400 in Richmond, Virginia. The anger I’m seeing is just about frying my computer.

You can’t blame Junior Nation for being mad. Junebug looked like he was a winner after Denny Hamlin’s tire went flat. Up until the point of impact, it was a good old-fashioned bump ‘n’ grind short track drag race between Earnhardt and Busch. Then it happened. The “18″ and “88″ collided, sending Earnhardt spinning off into another disappointing finish, and opening the door to victory for Clint Bowyer, who picked up his 2nd career NASCAR Sprint Cup win.

Everybody has their own opinion about the “incident” and I’ve got my own, which I will keep to myself. Let me just say it was a bummer to see two of the best cars in the field (Hamlin and Junior) finish outside the top 5 after the night they had.

Earlier today, I said it would be either Hamlin or Junior that would win. For about 373 laps, Hamlin was proving me right. Everything Denny needed from his car in terms of a set-up he had. It was setting up to be a feel good story that would have only been eclipsed by Earnhardt ending his victory drought: the local boy wins near his hometown of Chesterfield, Virginia. Hamlin and crew chief Mike Ford were simpatico, and then that danged tire went down, opening a Pandora’s box for what would happen next.

I find it a little hard to be angry at Denny, but it’s too bad he didn’t get off the track for new tires once he knew the tire was going down. At the end of the day, I think he would have ended up at the same place. Hamlin has been hot up until now, but there’s no doubt we were exposed to Denny’s Achilles’ heel.  The #11 FedEx has this maddening tendency to beat itself with silly mistakes. Don’t get me wrong, the tire wasn’t his fault, but not getting off the track sooner was- whether it was Hamlin’s decision or Ford’s.

Give props to Clint Bowyer for the win. Bowyer’s finish serves as the new “Exhibit A” as to why one should never give up. The #07 Chevy hung around in the spirit and tradition of David Pearson to emerge a victor. Given how things played out, it seems fitting that a guy that nobody seems to truly dislike comes out with the win.

My “Rocky Balboa” Award will be shared by Jeff Gordon and Kevin Harvick. Gordon started 43rd, but fought and clawed his way towards the front- giving him a decent end to what was a horrid weekend for his team. Harvick did a great job of hanging tough and staying hungry, even though it seemed apparent his car had recurring issues.

In addition to be bummed for Hamlin and Earnhardt, I was also bummed for Patrick Carpentier. He qualified well and was doing a good job of gaining on-the-job experience until he got collected in a big-time way in what started out as the Dave Blaney-J.J. Yeley incident. Talk about being in the wrong place at the wrong time!

We saw good racing tonight- it’s too bad it finished like this. While I lean more towards a “race incident” opinion on the Earnhardt-Busch affair, there can be no question Kyle Busch has found himself on the same unfortunate path his older brother Kurt took a way years back. After tonight, I’m quite sure his list of detractors has increased exponentially, and further mars the reputation of one of NASCAR’s most talented young drivers. Give credit to Junior for handling the post-race T.V. interview with grace, there’s no question his entire demeanor was heavy with disappointment. Nobody would have blamed him for running over to Busch and popping him, but that’s never been his style, and I’m proud of him for it.

Wouldn’t it have been cool if Mark Martin had won? Whatever he’s got in that car he ran in Phoenix and this place, he needs to bottle that up!

It also would have been fun for Bobby Labonte to pull out a win in the “Speed Racer” Dodge. 

As for Busch, well…..for my part I like his driving and I don’t think he’s half the jerk some think he is. BUT tonight’s incident won’t help his case or mine.

For every driver and fan disappointed by tonight’s finish, there is always the new hope brought by the promise of another week at the “Dark Lady” of Darlington. If it goes next week like it’s been going lately- it’s gonna be a show and a half. 

Fearless Forecast: Smoke Will Sweep at Talladega

It’s just a hunch. By now, every serious NASCAR fan knows how Tony Stewart has finished 2nd 6 times in Cup competition. He’s been knocking on the door for quite some time….and tomorrow Tony Stewart’s kicking it down.

Here’s what I’m expecting tomorrow…..the teams that have put forward the stout engines will run up front. Look for strong (and victory worthy) performances from the HMS boys: Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt Jr., and Casey Mears. Remember that Junior has won at ‘Dega 5 times and Gordon 6. There’s no reason to believe they won’t be in the mix.

This assumption also bodes well for Stewart and his Gibbs’ teammates Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin. In fact, I number Hamlin, Kasey Kahne and Ryan Newman as my dark horses. Yes, I expect Dodge to be well represented tomorrow, so that means Kurt Busch could be a part of the action.

With that extra horsepower, I expect other Toyotas to run well…..you should not be shocked if Michael Waltrip (a super speedway specialist of sorts), Brian Vickers (also a former Talladega winner), or even A.J. Allmendinger make a substantial amount of noise. In fact, I considered using Mikey as my “upset special” pick. Now that’s a fearless forecast!

Of course, I wish good things for those unexpected front-runners. I mean, who here expected Joe Nemechek and Ken Shrader in the top 5? Hear that sound of silence?

All speculation aside (and Heaven knows I;ve heard more insane tea leaf reading than I care to think about this week), here’s what you need to know…..

Tony Stewart will win (again) at Talladega!!

 

 

 

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