Joe Nemechek

Fearless Forecast: The Winner At Richmond Will Be….

Let’s be scientific about this. I respect all 43 guys in the field, but let’s be real- we can eliminate 15 drivers right off the top. we’re talking about the guys in the line-up who’ve never won a Cup race. That includes the likes of David Ragan, Reed Sorenson and Patrick Carpentier-who did put forward good qualifying efforts. To me, this place is just a little too tough for a guy to get his first win. This whittles the field down to 28.

Then there’s the guys, that while capable, just don’t have the equipment to win. There’s about another 4 guys here who’ve won races, but because of things like funding and equipment- they have as much chance as a kerosene cat in Hell with gasoline boxers on. Kyle Petty, Sterling Marlin, and Joe Nemechek are among the racers that fall into this category. OK- now we’re down to 24.

Among the 43 entries are guy who just don’t win at short tracks. This includes all the Roush Fenway guys. I’m not sure what’s missing in their “Car of Today” short track program, but something’s missing. The you’ve got guys like Michael Waltrip, who is to Super Speedways like Boris Said is to road courses. I find 8 drivers in this group- taking the possibilities down to 16. Hard charger Kyle Busch is also in this group. He’ too aggressive on short tracks. You need some patience to win here.

Let’s not forget about the “luck factor.” There’s always somebody out there at any given time who arejust unlucky. Tony Stewart is having a run of bad luck. Bobby Labonte is another one. Overall, this group of guys number 4, so now we have 12 drivers to pick from.

Among the drivers who are left are guys who have the best chance of winning today. Guys who are “in their element” in Richmond. I’m talking about Kevin Harvick and Clint Bowyer from RCR, Mark Martin from DEI, Kasey Kahne from Gillett Evernham, Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr. from HMS (Jeff Gordon is one of my “bad luck” guys), and Ryan Newman from Penske- as well as Denny Hamlin from Joe Gibbs.

Frankly, it comes down to two guys- Denny Hamlin and Junior. Earnhardt has won 3 races at Richmond, and he’s been good enough to win this year, even though he hasn’t broken the spell. Now, I know that Hamlin is going to try to win from the pole- which isn’t easy. I also know the the “law of averages” are against a weekend sweep and he won last night. Yet there’s an “X” factor in all of this, I think the “11′ car has it. So in light of that, I predict…

DENNY HAMLIN WILL WIN AT RICHMOND- fulfilling his dream of winning at home. The odds may be a bit long, but that’s why we call it the “fearless forecast.”

Fearless Forecast: Smoke Will Sweep at Talladega

It’s just a hunch. By now, every serious NASCAR fan knows how Tony Stewart has finished 2nd 6 times in Cup competition. He’s been knocking on the door for quite some time….and tomorrow Tony Stewart’s kicking it down.

Here’s what I’m expecting tomorrow…..the teams that have put forward the stout engines will run up front. Look for strong (and victory worthy) performances from the HMS boys: Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt Jr., and Casey Mears. Remember that Junior has won at ‘Dega 5 times and Gordon 6. There’s no reason to believe they won’t be in the mix.

This assumption also bodes well for Stewart and his Gibbs’ teammates Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin. In fact, I number Hamlin, Kasey Kahne and Ryan Newman as my dark horses. Yes, I expect Dodge to be well represented tomorrow, so that means Kurt Busch could be a part of the action.

With that extra horsepower, I expect other Toyotas to run well…..you should not be shocked if Michael Waltrip (a super speedway specialist of sorts), Brian Vickers (also a former Talladega winner), or even A.J. Allmendinger make a substantial amount of noise. In fact, I considered using Mikey as my “upset special” pick. Now that’s a fearless forecast!

Of course, I wish good things for those unexpected front-runners. I mean, who here expected Joe Nemechek and Ken Shrader in the top 5? Hear that sound of silence?

All speculation aside (and Heaven knows I;ve heard more insane tea leaf reading than I care to think about this week), here’s what you need to know…..

Tony Stewart will win (again) at Talladega!!

 

 

 

“Finish Line Throwdown” Re-Buttal: Lighten Up!

Now that I’ve made sure that my health coverage is in place (you tread lightly in the presence of Tagoo48), I have a few things to say amount the comments seen in Thursday night’s post.

Car of Tomorrow: The “Car of Tomorrow” addresses not only addresses safety concerns, it also addresses cost reduction and performance upgrades as well. Tagoo, I think even you’d agree that you can never be TOO safe. Yes, the old cars were not suicide machines. Well, actually, I’d say the HANS device has had as much to do with the absence of driver deaths since that fateful day in Feburary, 2001 as anything else. By the same token, if you can make a car safer, should you not do it? I thank God today I did not have to write a memorial post for Michael Mc Dowell two weeks ago. As far as I’m concerned the safety features did much to enable able the rookie to sit behind the wheel in a back-up car the following Sunday instead of watching the race from a hospital room. That wing on the back has also done a lot of good as a safety feature in spinning crashes. The new car is a safer car. Period.

I’m far from an authority on the cost of putting (and keeping) a car together, but I do know that cost reducation has also factored into the this car’s creation. There are now fewer cars in a team’s fleet than there once were. This car is a tank. More cars are finishing races, and more cars make for better racing.

The new car is still a work in progress. The lack of testing at Texas in the new car was evident by the race we saw, but I think we saw last weekend how the experience was shown by the quality  of race seen in Phoenix where the new car ran twice in 2007. There’s only one way to develop the “new” car into a better racing car- and that’s to get it out there to run races!

That brings me to my next point. To say that this season has been boring is to say that the races at Martinsville, Bristol and Phoenix were not good. I beg to differ! These were good races filled with lead changes, bumper bangin’, dangerous passes and the whole 9 yards! For the love of Mike- can someone please tell me why NASCAR fans are so quick to complain about races and tires when things go wrong and yet they say nothing when things go well??? Has anybody besides the media made comment how we’ve had no tire manufacturer issues since Atlanta? Shouldn’t Goodyear be commended for getting it right the VAST majority of the time? Concerning Texas- have we ever really had a great race there? I haven’t seen one. Is it not a little too simplistic to blame it on the car? Jimmie Johnson complained about the car after that race. Funny- where was this complaining about the “new” car when he was winning the Chase last year in it? Hmm. Interesting.  

Fundamentally, I think the fan base of NASCAR has an attitude problem. If you watch other sports, you see games that aren’t good. Heck, we’ve had boring Super Bowls. Does that mean the NFL should change their qualifying rules? Should baseball change it’s rules because of the 22-inning snooze fest that was the Rockies-Padres game this week? No!

Having said that- NASCAR should allow for change if over the course of time it’s PROVEN that the car in it’s present state is not a good racing machine on the intermediate tracks- the places where the races have not been up to par. But again- I think we need to give racing teams time to get it right. Testing won’t do it. We’ve got to race the doggone thing out there to really get a handle on it. Changes now would create a moving target nobody could hit.

As for race coverage quality, the smart network is the one who gives race fans what they want. I’ll tell you why we know about Junior every time he so much as breaks wins- because the overwhelming number of race fans LOVE Dale Earnhardt, Jr. Junior is the most popular driver in NASCAR- BY A MILE! FOX, TNT and ABC/ESPN would be stupid to ignore him. I actually watched last Saturday’s race with a VERY critical eye, and I thought FOX did a good job of filling me in on the drivers fighting to get in or stay in the top 35. I saw passes deeper in the field…but let’s be honest. Most people really want to know what’s going on up front. 99% of the audience doesn’t care one whit about the battle for 40th between Joe Nemechek and Robby Gordon.

You mentioned Kyle Busch Tagoo, maybe he’d get his own “personal” camera man if he didn’t act like a butt-munch towards the camera anytime he has a bad race. Carl Edwards, Junior, Jeff Gordon and even Michael Waltrip get the coverage they do because these drivers get it. They know that you have to take the good with the bad.

As for victory celebrations- I’m sorry you hate the backflip. It demonstrates orginality. Something that I will agree is seriosuly lacking in NASCAR, but I’m not sure you’re proposed solution will cut it. The best I’d ever seen was Dale Earnhardt’s celebration after he’d finally won the Daytona 500. Now that was cool!

Overall, I think this has been a good season. NASCAR is as competitive as it’s ever been- even though the most serious contenders come from the top 4 or 5 teams. Still, we really have no idea who’s going win it all this year, and that’s good for racing.

We’re going to have good races, we’re going to have bad ones. This is no different than any other sport. I think the sooner we have the attitude of looking for the good in something, rather than getting all bunged up over the bad, the better off we’ll be.

So- be patient. We’re not even out of turn one for the 2008, and a lot of what we’ve seen so far has actually been pretty interesting. I don’t think anyone could have predicted some of the story lines we’ve had so far- whether it be Ryan Newman’s victory at Daytona, HMS only having ONE victory out of 8 races so far, or whether it’s the performance of Richard Childress, Carl Edwards or veteran Jeff Burton.

There’s a lot of season left. As of right now, I wouldn’t change a doggone thing.