David Reutimann

Fearless Forecast: Who Will Win at Texas?

Predicting a NASCAR winner isn’t like picking a Final Four Winner. When you’re picking a winner in the stick and ball sports, it’s a heck of a lot easier to choose between two teams than it is picking a winner among 43 drivers. I haven’t picked a winner yet this year, but I’ve come darn close with Jeff Gordon finishing second last week, Tony Stewart taking third at Daytona and Junior’s third in Atlanta.

Let me start by saying that I’m choosing this week’s winner on the basis of speed. With in mind, I see the racers from Hendrick Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing, Richard Childress Racing and Roush Fenway Racing as the teams most likely to produce a winner at Texas Motor Speedway. Looks like a pretty safe bet when you consider that Lil “E” has the pole and he’s joined by Carl Edwards of Roush on the front row. Ryan Newman, one of NASCAR’s premier qualifiers is up towards the front, and then you have some other of the usual suspects in the front of the field: Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, and Matt Kenseth.

David Ragan will be someone to watch. The pilot of Mark Martin’s old ride did well at Martinsville, and he’s the front of the pack. Let’s tip a cowboy hat to Mike Skinner. Team Red Bull has been vindicated by their selection of the guy more famous for his truck racing prowess to take the #84 over from A.J. Allmendinger. Their goal? To get in race- which unfortunately A.J. wasn’t doing. Skinner got a 9th position yesterday and he’s been getting his car in the race, so the move pays off. I’m not sure Petty Enterprises move of Chad Mc Cumbee for Kyle Petty really did any good, There will be NO #45 car in tomorrow’s field.

So who will win this? The talking heads over at Yahoo! Sports are going with Carl Edwards. A good choice. Some are saying Jeff Gordonwill get HMS off the 2008 snide. Knowing the resemblence this track bears to Atlanta bodes well for AMS winner Kyle Busch. David Reutimann makes a nice dark horse pick. I think if his equipment can hold up, he looks like a winner. Starting out front will be a boon for “Beak” (a nickname given him in high school because of his prominent schnauz), it will keep him away from the wreckers, which is his problem half the time, getting caught in the wrong place at the wrong time. Two time winner Jeff Burtoncan’t be ignored. Niether can Greg Biffle, Denny Hamlin or Kevin Harvick.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. will make history tomorrow. He will do what no other has done at the “Great American Speedway”- win at Texas from the pole. It will be Junior that gives Rick Hendrick his first victory of 2008.

(Photo by Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images)

This race is about speed and Dale Earnhardt Junior is wicked fast.

Race Re-Cap: Hamlin’s a Home Track Hero

The local boy gets the win. Chesterfield, Virginia native Denny Hamlin picks up his first win of 2008 by taking the checkered flag at Martinsville, edging presumptive favorite Jeff Gordon after the two started the day on the first row. Hamlin picks up  big time points, rising from 15th to 8th in the Sprint Cup standings.

The thing you have to love about the 2008 NASCAR Cup season is that the story lines are new every week. Two weeks ago, it was all about the 1-2-3 Richard Childress finish at Bristol. Fontana and Las Vegas were all about Carl Edwards. Daytona was about the surpise 1-2 finish of Penske teammates Ryan Newman and Kurt Busch. For a while, I thought today would be about a return to dominance by Hendrick Motorsports.

For the better part of the race was the question of which HMS driver would win. Predictably, Jeff Gordon was lightning fast out of the gate. For much of the race, he had all three of his teammates right on his bumper. Dale Earnhardt Jr., Casey Mears and Jimmie Johnson all placed inside the top 10. They all looked like winners in stretches, but Gordon may have said it best when he said his car just wasn’t strong enough in the longer runs which is what we had late in the race. Still, this was Rick Hendrick’s best day by far, and you know Jimmie, Jeff and Junior will all be around at crunch time. Maybe even Casey. Jeff Hammond of FOX-TV said it best when he said it’s not that Hendrick is performing badly, it’s just that the other teams have caught up.

Some guys that needed to do well today- did. Jamie Mc Murrayhad one of the best runs of the day. Did you see how clean his car looked? On a day where the cars looked like something at a demolition derby, Mc Murray did what a go or go homer must do- finish the race in a good spot. He did it. Now the #26 Ford team sits in 30th and he’s in for sure at Texas. Casey Mears’ 7th place finish keeps above NASCAR’s dreaded low water mark. David Ragan, Juan Pablo Montoya, Regan Smith and Paul Menard all had respectable races.

Elliott Sadler gets props for toughness.Dennis Setzer (who won the truck race yesterday) was on standby as Sadler fought a bad back. Camera shots into his car shows a racer in pain, but he gutted it out.

What a heart break for Dave Blaney. He had to qualify on time and ran a good race, until mechanical problems proved his undoing. David Reutimann’s car looked like something out of Hiroshima.

Speaking of which- what was with the rear gears? It took me back to the water in the gas tanks at Atlanta last year. I’ve never seen anything like it. Some parts maker will have some ’splainin’ to do.

Michael Mc Dowell made his Cup debut today. The former ARCA star takes over the #00, while Reutimann steps into Dale Jarrett’s old #44. The rookie finished 26th and raced hard. Apparently too hard for Jeff Burton’s liking. Mc Dowell raced blocked up Burton’s progress while the veteran driver tried to catch Hamlin. Burton was quick to point out that somebody will break Mc Dowell of that habit real soon if he doesn’t quit. Don’t you just love how short tracks bring out the raw emotions? The Brothers Busch also swapped enough paint to turn Kyle’s M&M’s Toyota blue.

Some unnamed driver said it best- “Martinsville is like racing around two lamp posts in a parking lot.” It was tight, fast and fun today.

One thing for sure, it will all change next week. 

It’s Crunch Time For The New “Go or Go Homers”

It’s a long, hard fall for some of the guys who comprise the new list of “go or go home” drivers now that we’re 5 races into the 2008 season and we are no longer running off of the 2007 standings. While I’m sure Michael Waltrip, David Reutimann and Brian Vickers are relieved to be off of this list, thanks to improvements made by Toyota, there are others that have to be seriously concerned about what this portends for their 2008 season. For some, it may mean that their season is awash in anxiety.

Imagine being in Kyle Petty’s shoes. For most of his career, he’s been an automatic entry into the field. As it stands right now, I’d be very concerned if I were him. In looking over qualifying times over the last several races, The #45 has consistently run at or near the bottom of the list. Even when he gets in the race, it’s been monumentally difficult to get above NASCAR’s “Mendoza Line” (35th) to get out of this dreaded category.

It sucks. Just watch a couple of qualifying heats and you see how falling into the “go or go home” category completely fouls up anything resembling a strategy. You have to trim your car to run as fast as it will go just to get in at the expense of running for the duration of a 250-500 mile race. That doesn’t even take into account being at the mercy of poor weather conditions and being shut out if qualifying has to be canceled. Then there’s dealing with being at the end of the qualifying line and all the nerves that come with waiting it out to see if you get in.

Petty has plenty of company- drivers not used to being in this position: former open wheel stud Dario Franchitti joins Patrick Carpentier as drivers who have to get in on time. They’ll be joined by the likes of Jamie Mc Murray and Dave Blaney. These are guys you don’t expect to be joining the ranks of Burney Long and Stanton Barrett.

I have to imagine Mc Murray will pull through this- though you have to think this will make the driver of the Roush-Fenway #26 an odds-on-favorite to be cut when Jack Roush is required to go from 5 teams to 4 next year. Mc Murray has the backing of good equipment, so you’d think he’d be able to raise his standing quickly. By the same token, that Mc Murray finds himself in this position in spite of having a good product to work with doesn’t say good things about his skills.

It reminds me again of my disdain for the Top 35 “automatic qualifying rules.”On this rare occasion, I join the traditional NASCAR fan base by saying everybody in the field should get in on time. I get why the governing body has the rule, as sponsors pay BIG bucks to get their logos on the cars, and it doesn’t behoove a corporation to pay the big green if their car never gets camera time. After all, only the truly seriousfan watches the quals. By the same token, what does this do for the companies who sponsor go or go home drivers? Quick- do you have any idea who sponsors Boris Said? I didn’t think you did. I don’t easily remember either.

My argument to eliminate the rule would be this: If all the other guys are as good as their performance suggests, they’ll get in. Watch the qualifying times of the likes of Tony Stewart or Jeff Gordon. About the only time one of the big boys runs lower than top 30 is generally if they’ve wrecked. A miss for one of the top 20 would be rare.

I wish these guys well. Hopefully- NASCAR will see the light on this and we won’t be subject to further “back room deals” like the Hornish- Kurt Busch points swap.

It’s really not good for the sport.