David Ragan

NASCAR Stocks (Power Rankings): Sadler Shakes It Up

I’m quite sure this is notoriety that Elliott Sadler would rather live without. Without meaning to, the driver for Gillett Evernham has muddled our “Top 10″ by initiating a crash at Dover that wadded up 6 of the top 12 point getters in the 2008.

For my part, it will be hard to hold that against the drivers involved. However, there’s no denying that the race to some degree altered the outcome and opened the door for the likes of Greg Biffle, Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon to move up.

Here’s how things shake out today:

#10- Kasey Kahne- (unchanged from last week)- of all the top runners collected in the lap 18 wreck, Kahne had the best finish at 31st. I guess he can take comfort that in the old car, his day would have likely been done. I don’t think this is the follow up that Kasey had in mind to his win at Lowe’s.

#9- Denny Hamlin- (down 3 from 6th)- Denny came darn close to falling out with his last place finish, the result of the “big one” at the “Monster Mile.” What helps Hamlin is 9th place standing in terms of average finish with a 15.2 for the season. Weird to think he was the “hot one” just a few weeks back.

#8- Jimmie Johnson- (unranked last week)- Good “comeback week” for Jimmie. The defending champ never really challenged for the win,  yet a 7th place finish cannot be ignored.

#7- Clint Bowyer- (down 2 spots from 5th)- It’s been a rough “go” for Bowyer since his win at Richmond. What helps his standing now is that win, as well as his 3 tops 5’s, and 7 top 10’s.

#6- Greg Biffle- (unranked last week)- What a run for Biffle! Not only did he dominate the front end of the race at Dover, he also had a strong effort at Lowe’s, leading us to believe is he is the “real deal” for breaking into the Chase this year, after an up-and-down 2007.

#5- Jeff Gordon- (up 2 spots from 7th)- He may not have broke into the win column yet for 2008, but let there be no doubt that the “Rainbow Warrior” has it going in the right direction as of late with an average finish of 8.0 over his last 5 races- 2nd among our top 10.

#4- Dale Earnhardt Jr.- (down 2 from 2nd)-  Like his teammate Gordon, Earnhardt is one of the top drivers without a win. Junebug’s 9 top 10’s ties him for second with Jeff Burton and Carl Edwards. Junebug’s 5 top 5’s puts him 4th behind Kyle Busch, Edwards and Gordon. The naysayers are silenced, let it be known that Junior belongs!

#3- Jeff Burton- (up 1 spot from 4th)- “Mr. Consistency” comes through once again with his 8th place finish at Dover. Thi guy knows how to finish a race, even if his is not the best one out there. Finishing matters, and there’s no one better at it than Burton.

#2- Carl Edwards- (up 1 spot from 3rd)- He’d be in 2nd in the points, were it not for the penalty at Las Vegas. “Cousin Carl” solidifies his place near the top with his 2nd place run Sunday. Look for the Busch- Edwards rivalry to last for years to come. These guys ain’t going anywhere.

#1- Kyle Busch- (unchanged)- Busch is starting to get a little separation from the field. With his Dover victory, “Shrub” is the undisputed leader in wins and holds a 142 point lead over Burton in the Sprint Cup standings. What’s weird is to think that his Sprint Cup car was not as good last weekend as his Nationwide car or his truck. Busch gave credit to the shop and the crew, reminding us that even in this sport, where the driver gets all the glory, teamwork still matters.

Falling out: Tony Stewart becomes a hard-luck casualty after finishing 41st.

Knocking On The Door: David Ragan is still contending with an average finish of 10.6 over his last 5 races…For all the talk of bad luck, Matt Kenseth still has 7 top 10’s to his credit…Don’t discount Ryan Newman, especially if he can put a streak together…Kevin Harvick is a survivor. He could use a hot streak right about now.

Dark horses: If Brian Vickers could avoid the errors, and if Jamie McMurray and Dave Blaney can keep it up, they just might find their stock rising all the way into the top 10.

We’re heading down the straights coming out of the first turn, a lot can happen between now and the finish line.

 

Fearless Forecast: Empire Strikes Back

It just seems like certain TEAMS own certain race tracks. It’s kind of odd how it works that way. I mean you expect certain drivers to have a particularly good feel for certain surfaces and distances. Jeff Gordon does very well on the short tracks and road courses. Bobby Labonte has 6 of his 21 career wins at Atlanta. You may not be able to count on Michael Waltrip to win too many races, but he’s a darn good bet on super speedways, as well as his former teammate- Dale Earnhardt Jr. Kasey Kahne rules on the intermediates, as does fellow young gun Carl Edwards. Speaking of Edwards, he’s known as the “King of Concrete.”

Dover is a concrete track, a one miler with a short track feel, loads of banking and changing elevations, giving it a roller coaster ride effect. It’s interesting to know then, that while Edwards is ordinarily awesome on concrete tracks (Nashville, for example), Edwards is just well,, ordinary at Dover. His driver rating of just over 98 puts him at #8 among active drivers. His starting position of 14th is not something get all tingly over either. At the same time, this is a track where Roush-Fenway has a solid track record. For tomorrow’s race, Roush driver Greg Biffle is one the pole and Jamie Mc Murray is in the #5 spot. Biffle has the best driver rating here at 113, while another Roush veteran, Matt Kenseth is second with a rating of 111.  Just about the only driver that’s an unknown quantity at Dover is David Ragan- who’s been on a roll lately.

Speaking of drivers on a roll, Kasey Kahne is coming on an all-star win and a trip to Victory Lane at the Coca-Cola 600. Kahnehas a poor track record at Dover, with a driver rating of 86. His starting position of 15th is nothing to write home about.

As far as driver ratings go, the top 5 at Dover are Biffle, Kenseth, Mark Martin, Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch. Something tells me “Rowdy” won’t be that great this week. Just a feeling.

Bringing up Johnson’s name reminds us that “Team Hendrick” is strong here too. You don’t see Jeff Gordon’s name on that top 5 list, but the veteran leads active drivers at Dover with 4 wins (Gordon is joined at the top by Bill Elliott and Mark Martin). Johnson has 3 wins here, and the newest addition to the HMS stable, Dale Jr. has one of his 17 career wins on this track (the MBNA Cal Ripken 400 in 2001).

In fact, I’m going to say that a Hendrick driver is going to pull off the win. A driver ready to bounce back. It’s tempting to go with Jeff Gordon, but I’m going to say that….

Jimmie Johnson will win tomorrow’s race.

The Lowe’s “48″ will start out of the #4 hole, and all the adjustments being made seem to be working for Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus. Johnson, a two-time defending champion is hungry after some less-than-satisfying recent runs. Johnson has a way of doing constructive things with that kind of hunger. Hendrick has only one victory in 2008 after owning the NASCAR schedule in 2007, but I think they’ll add another win tomorrow- whether it’s Johnson or Gordon.

I also look for other drivers to bounce back tomorrow. Kurt Busch ran some great laps last week and Matt Kenseth isn’t giving up. Never give up on Tony Stewart, who has two wins at DIS.    

Now a sure sign of a Kahne resurgence would be a win here.

Other young guns that bear watching include the ubiquitous Kyle Busch, A.J. Allmendinger- who qualified in the 8th spot, and A.J.’s Red Bull teammate Brian Vickers. The North Carolinian qualified 6th and was wicked fast at Lowe’s before the infamous “wheel incident.” Ryan Newman’s looking good, in spite of all the complaint he’s recently logged in his Yahoo! blog.

Drivers seem to have a lot of fun at this track. It also seems that the shorter the distance with the new car, the better the racing.

I can’t wait. 

 

NASCAR Stocks (Top 10 Rankings): Movin’ Up, Goin’ Down

It’s a tight field in the top ten, and the ranks keep shifting. What I like about this season, is you never really know what’s going to happen. I was lucky enough to predict Kasey Kahne’s victory, but the truth is that there’s very little separation from driver to driver. Things are a little different this week, and I think you’ll be surprised where some guy landed.

#10- Kasey Kahne- (unranked last week)- Can a little confidence make that much difference? Apart of the reason, I predicted a Kahne win was the way he carried himself during his press conference after the All-Star win. He’s gone from acting like a top 15 driver to acting like a champion. Gillett Evernham has benefited greatly on Ray Evernham’s emphasis on the racing side of things. They keep this up, and we’ll see Elliott Sadler in the chase!

#9- Greg Biffle- (unranked last week)- The two week run at Lowe’s has been good for “The Biff” too. Except for Kahne’s Coca-Cola 600 win, Biffle is better across the board than the “9.”

#8- Tony Stewart- (unchanged from last week)- A flat tire was all that kept him from winning at Lowe’s Motor Speedway. But have no fear Smoke fans, it ain’t July yet, and history tells us that Stewart heats up with the weather. Statistically, the “Big Orange” is just ahead of Biffle in terms of average finish, 14.7 to 15.1.

#7- Jeff Gordon- (up 2 spots from 9th last week)- Based on the way he ran most of the race, I never would have imagined him here. The way Gordon’s talking right now, he’s the “anti-Kahne.” Take it easy Jeff, you’re getting better. Your average finish of 9.6 is 4th behind Kyle Busch, Junior, and Jeff Burton.

#6- Denny Hamlin- (down 3 spots from 3rd last week)- I’m quite sure some members of Junior Nation feel like Denny’s 24th place finish was just desserts after Hamlin swatted JRM driver Brad Keselowski in the Nationwide Series Saturday night. Hamlin’s starting to fade, but his 4th place standing in the points reminds us of what he’s accomplished up until recently.

#5- Clint Bowyer- (up 1 spot from 6th last week)- Bowyer’s been kind of quiet since the traveling NASCAR circus came to Concord, but 1 win, 3 top 5s, and 7 top 10s cannot be ignored.

#4- Jeff Burton- (up 1 spot from 5th last week)- “Mr. Consistency” racked up another top 10, 6th in Sunday’s marathon race. All race long, you kind of forget he’s around, then, the checkered flag drops, and by golly, there he is. Burton is 2nd in the points, and tied for 3rd in top 10s with Carl Edwards- both racers have 8.

#3- Carl Edwards- (down from 2nd last week)- Did Edwards really race Sunday? I gotta say that’s just about the quietest top 10 anyone’s ever run. I think Carl lucked up on attrition, but hey, it’s all about where you are at the end, and the Missourian managed to miss all the mid-race fireworks and kept gas in his car.

#2- Dale Earnhardt Jr.- (up 2 from 4th last week)- Give Junior props for not quitting on his team Sunday. It would have been a legendary finish if he could have come back from the wreck with J.J. Yeley to take the checkered. Kinda makes you think of Earnhardt’s old man, doesn’t it? The only drivers more consistent than Lil “E” have been Kyle Busch and Burton.

#1- Kyle Busch- (unchanged from last week)- Love him or hate him, you can’t ignore him. Give “Rowdy” props for fighting through mechanical problems to finish 3rd at Lowe’s behind Kahne and Biffle. I thought the altercation with Gordon was childish, but that doens’t affect the points, it just solidifies his standing as “NASCAR’s resident bad boy.” Still, Busch keeps running like a scared jackrabbit.

Falling Out- Sorry Johnson fans, Jimmie’s 38th place finish hurt him this week. He’ll be back. David Ragan didn’t last long in the top 10, BUT  Ragan’s 12th place run Sunday reinforces the idea he’s capable of running up front and staying there.

Ready to Strike- Kevin Harvick is actually 7th in points, a couple of good races and he’ll be back. I’d also keep my eyes open for runs by Matt Kenseth, and maybe even Juan Montoya.

Up next is the “Monster Mile”- Dover. Check out tomorrow’s preview as we bring you another edition of “Pull Those Belts Tight!”

    

 

Fearless Forecast: Deja Vu at Charlotte?

It has to be a match made in Heaven when a driver rocks at his sponsor’s track. Of course, conspiracy theorists who say NASCAR is rigged have a field day with the fact that Jimmie Johnson has 5 victories at Lowe’s Motor Speedway. It would also be too easy to predict the “48″ as the winner of the Coca-Cola 600, especially given that he’s won the holiday marathon race 3 times.

But I’m not going to….

Don’t get me wrong, Jimmie is in the mix big time. I, for one, do not think his mojo is completely gone, and I believe he will be top 5 for the 2008 season. By the same token, something in my gut tells me he’s not winning this one. As a matter of fact, I’m going to go out on a limb and say that the best Hendrick performance will come from Jeff Gordon. Johnson still has some bouts of inconsistency with getting the car set up just right for him. In fact, I’ll go as far as to say that Johnson may be the surest evidence how difficult this car is to get a handle on for driving. By the same token, it’s like Jeff Burton said on “NASCAR Confidential” yesterday- it’s still way early yet, and in due time, teams will get it figured out. As for Dale Jr., my opinion is that he’s pressing and still over-driving his cars, something that does not bode well for a 600-mile race.

Speaking of people who over-drive their cars, I will go on record once again this week by saying Kyle Busch will NOT win. Granted, it wasn’t his fault that Joe Gibbs’ experimental engine bailed on him and cost him the win in the All-Star race. I am also aware that “Shrub” said he would work to not push his car over the line. Saying it and doing it are two different things however.

I expect that Roush will be represented at or near the front. Matt Kenseth is too good to stay down long. Greg Biffle is coming off a good week. Carl Edwards is well, Carl Edwards- and he has a mastery of the mile and a half’s. David Ragan may also continue his unlikely run of looking good and running strong. This is, after all, a race known for producing first victories (such as last year’s Coke 600 winner Casey Mears).

Keep your eyes open for Childress boys. I’m not sure which one, if not all three drivers between Kevin Harvick, Jeff Burton and Clint Bowyer will run well. I actually think this race favors Burton’s conservative approach. One if not all of these guys will run well.

But my pick does not come from this team…

My pick is a guy who’s running with a high level of confidence right now. He’s also a good one for not wearing out his equipment. He’s also been a multiple race winner here, sweeping the 2006 schedule at Lowe’s, and he was also last week’s All-Star race winner.

I’m going to go with Kasey Kahne.

Kahne’s had SOME good runs, though he’s had a hard time getting to the top five or victory lane. But just listen to his interviews, and you can tell he’s there in terms of his confidence. Your crew chief is important in a distance race like this, and I think the Enumclaw, Washington native’s pit boss, Kenny Francis has the perfect working relationship with his driver. The gutsy call from last week only enhances that relationship.

Of course, having former race strategist extrodinaire Ray Evernham as your owner certainly doesn’t hurt.

 

 

 

NASCAR Stocks: Headed for Turn Two

Let’s re-visit for a moment my Top Ten Power Poll from last week. Once again, here are the top drivers, in my not-so humble opinion (All-Star race- a non-points race is not factored in):

#1- Kyle Busch- Can’t argue with the wins and being a factor in EVERY race this season.

#2- Carl Edwards- He’d easily be #1 if not for Busch. A kinder, gentler Shrub.

#3- Denny Hamlin- Overshadowed by teammate Busch, he’s charging hard as of late.

#4- Dale Earnhardt Jr.- Only needs the wins to vault towards the top. Is not running bad races.

#5- Jeff Burton- Putting together his typical quietly solid season.

#6- Clint Bowyer- He’s on the verge of really breaking out. He’ll be here at the end of the day.

#7- Jimmie Johnson- This isn’t a bad position for the “sneaky fast” David Pearson-style.

#8- Tony Stewart- Like Johnson, he may only go upward. Look for upward movement in July.

#9- Jeff Gordon- Wow. I’m not sure he stays up here. He and his team just look out of sorts.

#10- David Ragan- “David Wreck-Um” has evolved. It’s gotta help he has good mentors at Roush.

 

Ready to Strike:

The wily vets (they run well, their equipment questionable)- Matt Kenseth (mainly a victime of bad luck),  Greg Biffle (like teammate Kenseth, the Edwards mojo hasn’t rubbed off), Bobby Labonte (he and Robbie Loomis have upgraded Petty’s team, but they’re not quite there yet), Dave Blaney (put him with an organization that’s not strapped for cash and he’s a top 15 easy), Kevin Harvick (his struggles are a mystery to me).

The young dudes: Ryan Newman (has real moments of brilliance, and others not-so), Kasey Kahne (he’ll get a lift from the All-Star win), Brian Vickers (can be really fantastic, and at other times as consistent as a paer cup in a wind storm), Juan Pablo Montoya (gives us some foreign intrigue), Martin Truex Jr. (just needs a little luck).

Up Next: “Pull Those Belts Tight!” Race Preview  (tomorrow), “Fearless Forecast” (Saturday), “Race Re-Cap” (Sunday), “Road To Glory” *Premier* (Monday).

 

Race Re-Cap: Busch Dominant In Darlington

This weekend at Darlington broke the mold in so many ways. On the re-paved surface, we got a new qualifying record, a surprisingly low number of cautions and DNFs, and a new race speed record.

I couldn’t have been more off the mark. I picked the wrong Busch brother (Kurt) to win, and in a message board pool, I picked Kyle to finish dead last. I also figured that a lower division nameplate to do well here, I just didn’t expect it to be Ford instead of Dodge. I also said that the kids wouldn’t run well tonight. David Ragan and race winner Kyle Busch proved me wrong.

I was with Greg Biffle’s spotter. He suggested Biffle give up the lead early in the race to “Wild Thing” because there was no way he’d finish it. Once again, the guy who wouldn’t finish it was The #16 3-M Ford. The younger Busch, coming off a controversial 2ndplace finish in Richmond, looked like he was going to use his car up before he ever got to the final lap.

It’s weird to think that the guy with the most wins here (David Pearson) was known for conservation and cunning. The 23 year old from Las Vegas runs more in the tradition of Fireball Roberts (notorious for using up his cars) and Junior Johnson (his racing philosophy was to get up front as quickly as possible…and stay there).

We may be witnessing a driver re-writing the rulebook for how races are won in the new car. Lord knows Busch broke all the old ones. Did you see all that brake dust coming out of his right front? And how about the way he was brushing the wall? I was expecting “Shrub” to bust into a chorus of the Johnny Cash tune “I Got Stripes” at any time. It just didn’t seem like he should win when you also throw in the pit violation and his complaints about his “pathetic” car. Oh, that Dave Blaney’s car could be that pathetic.

Besides Busch, a lot of guys we don’t talk much about should get some credit for a good race. Though the Roush team was plagued with wheel problems, upstart David Ragan finished 5th in addition to Edwards in 2nd. Teammate Matt Kenseth shook loose of a few demons and ended up 6th. Journeyman Dave Blaney ran his best race of the year in crossing the line 9th. Travis Kvapil, who’s making a Cup comeback this year after a solid career in the Craftsman Truck Series finished 8th on a fitting night where he was sponsored by Lafayette Ford, sponsor the #28 back in the Freddy Lorenzen days.

Some the other name drivers deserve a shout out for their performances. Carl Edwards’ finish is amazing when you consider he started at near the back of the field. Jeff Gordon has a great race to vault himself into the top 10 for the point standings. And Dale Jr.? Well, he was consistent again, racking up another top five and ready to strike if anyone faltered.

But above all else, Tony Stewart gets the “Rocky Balboa” Award- fighting, gouging and clawing his way to a respectable 21st after tangling with Elliott Sadler on the 3rd lap.

No- this race was definitely NOT what I expected- however, I was not disappointed with the racing and the thrill of a Saturday race under the lights.

 By the way- Happy Mother’s Day to the two best Moms in the world- my mom, Lenore Pittock of Keizer, Oregon. Thanks for believing in me, and letting me test out my ever-running mouthon your longsuffering ears. Then of course, there’s my lovely wife Lynnae, without whom I would not be a dad to the cutest kids in the world.

To all you Moms- HAPPY MOTHER’S DAY FROM THE BOYS AT ‘THE FINISH LINE.”Zooooom…

 

Fearless Forecast: Will a Dodge Win at Darlington?

The “Lady In Black” will test the field like no other. It’s funny, I used to think the short tracks were the most challenging, and that the road courses provided unique hurdles of their own. While that’s still true, Darlington has zoomed to the top of my list as NASCAR’s most difficult track.

Because of that, Darlington may have just become my favorite.

This track has handed out more stripes than a prison uniformer. The list of people who’ve tattoed their cars looks suspiciously like the all-star field. Whether ir racing or practice- Jimmie Johnson, Kasey Kahne, Carl Edwards and Kyle Busch are among the drivers Darlington has collected this week.

The track is a temptress. Drivers can get up to those high speeds, and you’ve got all that banking, but you’ve got those narrow spots where you just can’t do that 3-wide racing that you can in a place like Richmond. Shrub found this out the hard way last night.

Now I’m not saying anything about the mental capacity of the following drivers, but I will say that Darlington does not suffer fools. Given that, I expect a slightly different result than what we’ve seen lately. Young, hyper-aggressive drivers like Klye Busch, David Ragan, A.J. Allmendinger and Brian Vickers will likely struggle here.

Drivers with “controlled” aggressiveness will likely be fine, provided their luck holds up. I’m looking for good efforts from many of the “usual suspects.” Jeff Gordon (7 Darlington wins), pole-sitter Greg Biffle (2 checkereds here), Tony Stewart (last night’s Nationwide winner), Jimmie Johnson (2004 winner) should all do well. I’m even expecting a good race from Dale Earnhardt Jr., who believe it or not, has not won at Darlington.

History is also on the side of some other veterans. Former champ Bobby Labonte was won a race on the 1.366 miler, Mark Martin has had tons of Nationwide success at the South Carolina, Ryan Newman finished 4th here last year, Kasey Kahne has won poles galore, and Newman’s teammate Kurt Busch has cracked the top 5 in qualifying. Make no mistake that this is very much a track position race. I wouldn’t want to be anywhere near the guys that I mentioned earlier who are young and perhaps overly aggressive.  

I find it interesting that the Dodge boys always qualify well where speed matters. There are 3 Dodges in the top 10, and some at the back of the field who got there by being too quick and losing control.

A Dodge will win today. “What?” You Say? This is why I call it the “Fearless Forecast.”I mean everybody expects the likes Junior, Smoke, Gordon and Jimmie to do well. There’s nothing fearless about that.

It will be too easy to overlook the veterans like Martin, Labonte, and maybe even Jeff Burton. But I think Kurt Busch is overdue. You’ll note he’s been curiously quiet since Daytona, running with a ton of bad luck since. Not only will he do well, but so will Labonte and Newman.  The Penske duo, however, have the best equipment of all the Dodges.

My top five (in no particular order) are as follows:Junior, Smoke, Ryan Newman, Kurt Busch, and Greg Biffle. And the winner will be……

Kurt Busch! That’s why I call it the “Fearless Forecast.” Either I will look like a genius or a raging fool!

 

Tony Stewart wins at Darlington

After multiple tries to tame the “Lady In Black,” today was the day for Tony Stewart.  Tony Stewart pulled away from Clint Bowyer, the Nationwide Series Points Leader who now leads by 112 points over Kyle Busch in the unofficial points standings. After Tony Stewart crossed the finish line with four-fifths of a second lead of Clint Bowyer, he broke his career winless drought at Darlington.

“It’s this team behind us and this team at Joe Gibbs Racing,” Stewart said. “We just took it easy in the beginning and tried to bide our time and take care of the car and take care of the tires and have something for them when we came to the end.”

Mark Martin brought out the caution on the restart with 3 laps to go when he stalled his car, triggering a six car pile up on the front stretch.

Carl Edwards experienced more bad luck this weekend, blowing a tire on just the second lap of the race, ending the night earlier than expected.

“They dropped the green, and I was ready to race,” said the defending series champion, who finished 43rd as the first car out. “I got loose and hit the wall. I guess I cut a tire down. . . That was a bad mistake, and I learned my lesson there.”

The race had eight leaders.  Stewart led the most with 90 laps, Matt Kenseth had 35, Bowyer with 13, Rowdy led a total of 6 laps, Kelly Bires led 2 laps, and Ambrose, Ragan, and Jeff Burton all led one lap.

After 8 cautions, a green-white-checkered finish, and 11 lead changes, the headline reads, “Tony tames Darlington.”

Fearless Forecast: The Winner At Richmond Will Be….

Let’s be scientific about this. I respect all 43 guys in the field, but let’s be real- we can eliminate 15 drivers right off the top. we’re talking about the guys in the line-up who’ve never won a Cup race. That includes the likes of David Ragan, Reed Sorenson and Patrick Carpentier-who did put forward good qualifying efforts. To me, this place is just a little too tough for a guy to get his first win. This whittles the field down to 28.

Then there’s the guys, that while capable, just don’t have the equipment to win. There’s about another 4 guys here who’ve won races, but because of things like funding and equipment- they have as much chance as a kerosene cat in Hell with gasoline boxers on. Kyle Petty, Sterling Marlin, and Joe Nemechek are among the racers that fall into this category. OK- now we’re down to 24.

Among the 43 entries are guy who just don’t win at short tracks. This includes all the Roush Fenway guys. I’m not sure what’s missing in their “Car of Today” short track program, but something’s missing. The you’ve got guys like Michael Waltrip, who is to Super Speedways like Boris Said is to road courses. I find 8 drivers in this group- taking the possibilities down to 16. Hard charger Kyle Busch is also in this group. He’ too aggressive on short tracks. You need some patience to win here.

Let’s not forget about the “luck factor.” There’s always somebody out there at any given time who arejust unlucky. Tony Stewart is having a run of bad luck. Bobby Labonte is another one. Overall, this group of guys number 4, so now we have 12 drivers to pick from.

Among the drivers who are left are guys who have the best chance of winning today. Guys who are “in their element” in Richmond. I’m talking about Kevin Harvick and Clint Bowyer from RCR, Mark Martin from DEI, Kasey Kahne from Gillett Evernham, Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr. from HMS (Jeff Gordon is one of my “bad luck” guys), and Ryan Newman from Penske- as well as Denny Hamlin from Joe Gibbs.

Frankly, it comes down to two guys- Denny Hamlin and Junior. Earnhardt has won 3 races at Richmond, and he’s been good enough to win this year, even though he hasn’t broken the spell. Now, I know that Hamlin is going to try to win from the pole- which isn’t easy. I also know the the “law of averages” are against a weekend sweep and he won last night. Yet there’s an “X” factor in all of this, I think the “11′ car has it. So in light of that, I predict…

DENNY HAMLIN WILL WIN AT RICHMOND- fulfilling his dream of winning at home. The odds may be a bit long, but that’s why we call it the “fearless forecast.”