Dave Blaney

NASCAR Stocks (Power Rankings): Sadler Shakes It Up

I’m quite sure this is notoriety that Elliott Sadler would rather live without. Without meaning to, the driver for Gillett Evernham has muddled our “Top 10″ by initiating a crash at Dover that wadded up 6 of the top 12 point getters in the 2008.

For my part, it will be hard to hold that against the drivers involved. However, there’s no denying that the race to some degree altered the outcome and opened the door for the likes of Greg Biffle, Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon to move up.

Here’s how things shake out today:

#10- Kasey Kahne- (unchanged from last week)- of all the top runners collected in the lap 18 wreck, Kahne had the best finish at 31st. I guess he can take comfort that in the old car, his day would have likely been done. I don’t think this is the follow up that Kasey had in mind to his win at Lowe’s.

#9- Denny Hamlin- (down 3 from 6th)- Denny came darn close to falling out with his last place finish, the result of the “big one” at the “Monster Mile.” What helps Hamlin is 9th place standing in terms of average finish with a 15.2 for the season. Weird to think he was the “hot one” just a few weeks back.

#8- Jimmie Johnson- (unranked last week)- Good “comeback week” for Jimmie. The defending champ never really challenged for the win,  yet a 7th place finish cannot be ignored.

#7- Clint Bowyer- (down 2 spots from 5th)- It’s been a rough “go” for Bowyer since his win at Richmond. What helps his standing now is that win, as well as his 3 tops 5’s, and 7 top 10’s.

#6- Greg Biffle- (unranked last week)- What a run for Biffle! Not only did he dominate the front end of the race at Dover, he also had a strong effort at Lowe’s, leading us to believe is he is the “real deal” for breaking into the Chase this year, after an up-and-down 2007.

#5- Jeff Gordon- (up 2 spots from 7th)- He may not have broke into the win column yet for 2008, but let there be no doubt that the “Rainbow Warrior” has it going in the right direction as of late with an average finish of 8.0 over his last 5 races- 2nd among our top 10.

#4- Dale Earnhardt Jr.- (down 2 from 2nd)-  Like his teammate Gordon, Earnhardt is one of the top drivers without a win. Junebug’s 9 top 10’s ties him for second with Jeff Burton and Carl Edwards. Junebug’s 5 top 5’s puts him 4th behind Kyle Busch, Edwards and Gordon. The naysayers are silenced, let it be known that Junior belongs!

#3- Jeff Burton- (up 1 spot from 4th)- “Mr. Consistency” comes through once again with his 8th place finish at Dover. Thi guy knows how to finish a race, even if his is not the best one out there. Finishing matters, and there’s no one better at it than Burton.

#2- Carl Edwards- (up 1 spot from 3rd)- He’d be in 2nd in the points, were it not for the penalty at Las Vegas. “Cousin Carl” solidifies his place near the top with his 2nd place run Sunday. Look for the Busch- Edwards rivalry to last for years to come. These guys ain’t going anywhere.

#1- Kyle Busch- (unchanged)- Busch is starting to get a little separation from the field. With his Dover victory, “Shrub” is the undisputed leader in wins and holds a 142 point lead over Burton in the Sprint Cup standings. What’s weird is to think that his Sprint Cup car was not as good last weekend as his Nationwide car or his truck. Busch gave credit to the shop and the crew, reminding us that even in this sport, where the driver gets all the glory, teamwork still matters.

Falling out: Tony Stewart becomes a hard-luck casualty after finishing 41st.

Knocking On The Door: David Ragan is still contending with an average finish of 10.6 over his last 5 races…For all the talk of bad luck, Matt Kenseth still has 7 top 10’s to his credit…Don’t discount Ryan Newman, especially if he can put a streak together…Kevin Harvick is a survivor. He could use a hot streak right about now.

Dark horses: If Brian Vickers could avoid the errors, and if Jamie McMurray and Dave Blaney can keep it up, they just might find their stock rising all the way into the top 10.

We’re heading down the straights coming out of the first turn, a lot can happen between now and the finish line.

 

Race Re-Cap: Raisin’ Kahne (Here’s to The End of a Long Dry Spell)

Kasey Kahne is back! Fans are witness to a transformation as a rising NASCAR star gets his career back on track. It’s hard to believe that it was only two short years since Kasey Kahne won 6 races in one season. After a winless streak of 52 races, the 5th year driver follows up an encouraging All-Star effort with a win in the 2008 edition of the Coca- Cola 600. If you include last week’s non-points win, Kahne won his 4th race at Lowe’s. It bears repeating: if Lowe’s is Jimmie Johnson’s house, then Kasey Kahne must be renting out a floor from Jimmie.

Kahne looked like a finisher from the green flag. I have to admit, the action was slow enough in the opening laps, I snuck in a power nap. I awoke to find I didn’t miss much. However- over time- I’ve learned some races run in stages and it pays to stick around. After “Rowdy Shrub” Busch played Pied Piper for the first 100 laps or so, things began to get interesting. Kahne hung around, but we got looks at Brian Vickers up front, Kurt Busch looked as good as I’ve seen since Daytona, and Jimmie Johnson and Junior looked predictably good. We had a lot of drama and craziness along the way, but Kahne ran a smart race and he was there to capitalize on troubles for Stewart, Earnhardt and Busch. “The Coke” is a battle of attrition, and the team of Kahne, Kenny Francis and Ray Evernham had it all going for them today.

“The Rocky Balboa Award” has to go to Lil ”E.” I must admit that while Junior was ”rolling fly and lookin’ phat” there was a part of me saying “I wonder how it’s going to fall apart on Junior this week.” And sure enough, Earnhardt brushes the wall and gets rammed by J.J. Yeley. BUT after all that, Dale hung in there and pulled out a 5th place. He will win soon Junior Nation, you can bank on it. Just remember, Junebug is 3rd in points, finishing races and running well. I’d take that over Kyle Petty’s problems any day of the week. Kevin Harvick also had another solid finish, in spite of the fact that “Happy” once again seemed to have a mediocre race car. Harvick looks like he’s been taking lessons in survival from teammate Jeff Burton.

What a bummer for Brian Vickers. It’s obvious that the “83″ really likes Lowe’s and he sure looked like a top 5 today, but what a wreck! That crash will make its way to plenty of crash montages for years to come. Poor David Gilliland takes the loose wheel on the hood and it lands in the infield with the campers. It’s kinda funny, but I’m just glad no one got hurt. It was also an unlucky day for Jimmie Johnson (HMS’ first blown motor since the Bronze Age), and Tony Stewart (blown tire).

It would have been nice to see an old hoss like Mark Martin, Dave Blaney or Bobby Labonte win today, but by the same token I’m happy for Kasey Kahne.

There was a lot of wheel and tire troubles today. It will be interesting to hear what the drivers have to say about this over the course of the next several days.

I may be a West Coaster and get to see the race earlier than a lot of you, but even I was wornout by race’s end.

It wasn’t the best race I’d ever seen, but perhaps we can say it was the best mile and a half race we’ve had all year.

HAPPY MEMORIAL DAY! AND TO ALL YOU VETS OUT THERE, WE SALUTE YOU. THANKS TO YOU, WE CAN ALL ARGUE ABOUT NASCAR INSTEAD OF TILLING CROP IN KOMRADE PUTIN’S GARDEN.

   

NASCAR Stocks: Headed for Turn Two

Let’s re-visit for a moment my Top Ten Power Poll from last week. Once again, here are the top drivers, in my not-so humble opinion (All-Star race- a non-points race is not factored in):

#1- Kyle Busch- Can’t argue with the wins and being a factor in EVERY race this season.

#2- Carl Edwards- He’d easily be #1 if not for Busch. A kinder, gentler Shrub.

#3- Denny Hamlin- Overshadowed by teammate Busch, he’s charging hard as of late.

#4- Dale Earnhardt Jr.- Only needs the wins to vault towards the top. Is not running bad races.

#5- Jeff Burton- Putting together his typical quietly solid season.

#6- Clint Bowyer- He’s on the verge of really breaking out. He’ll be here at the end of the day.

#7- Jimmie Johnson- This isn’t a bad position for the “sneaky fast” David Pearson-style.

#8- Tony Stewart- Like Johnson, he may only go upward. Look for upward movement in July.

#9- Jeff Gordon- Wow. I’m not sure he stays up here. He and his team just look out of sorts.

#10- David Ragan- “David Wreck-Um” has evolved. It’s gotta help he has good mentors at Roush.

 

Ready to Strike:

The wily vets (they run well, their equipment questionable)- Matt Kenseth (mainly a victime of bad luck),  Greg Biffle (like teammate Kenseth, the Edwards mojo hasn’t rubbed off), Bobby Labonte (he and Robbie Loomis have upgraded Petty’s team, but they’re not quite there yet), Dave Blaney (put him with an organization that’s not strapped for cash and he’s a top 15 easy), Kevin Harvick (his struggles are a mystery to me).

The young dudes: Ryan Newman (has real moments of brilliance, and others not-so), Kasey Kahne (he’ll get a lift from the All-Star win), Brian Vickers (can be really fantastic, and at other times as consistent as a paer cup in a wind storm), Juan Pablo Montoya (gives us some foreign intrigue), Martin Truex Jr. (just needs a little luck).

Up Next: “Pull Those Belts Tight!” Race Preview  (tomorrow), “Fearless Forecast” (Saturday), “Race Re-Cap” (Sunday), “Road To Glory” *Premier* (Monday).

 

Race Re-Cap: Busch Dominant In Darlington

This weekend at Darlington broke the mold in so many ways. On the re-paved surface, we got a new qualifying record, a surprisingly low number of cautions and DNFs, and a new race speed record.

I couldn’t have been more off the mark. I picked the wrong Busch brother (Kurt) to win, and in a message board pool, I picked Kyle to finish dead last. I also figured that a lower division nameplate to do well here, I just didn’t expect it to be Ford instead of Dodge. I also said that the kids wouldn’t run well tonight. David Ragan and race winner Kyle Busch proved me wrong.

I was with Greg Biffle’s spotter. He suggested Biffle give up the lead early in the race to “Wild Thing” because there was no way he’d finish it. Once again, the guy who wouldn’t finish it was The #16 3-M Ford. The younger Busch, coming off a controversial 2ndplace finish in Richmond, looked like he was going to use his car up before he ever got to the final lap.

It’s weird to think that the guy with the most wins here (David Pearson) was known for conservation and cunning. The 23 year old from Las Vegas runs more in the tradition of Fireball Roberts (notorious for using up his cars) and Junior Johnson (his racing philosophy was to get up front as quickly as possible…and stay there).

We may be witnessing a driver re-writing the rulebook for how races are won in the new car. Lord knows Busch broke all the old ones. Did you see all that brake dust coming out of his right front? And how about the way he was brushing the wall? I was expecting “Shrub” to bust into a chorus of the Johnny Cash tune “I Got Stripes” at any time. It just didn’t seem like he should win when you also throw in the pit violation and his complaints about his “pathetic” car. Oh, that Dave Blaney’s car could be that pathetic.

Besides Busch, a lot of guys we don’t talk much about should get some credit for a good race. Though the Roush team was plagued with wheel problems, upstart David Ragan finished 5th in addition to Edwards in 2nd. Teammate Matt Kenseth shook loose of a few demons and ended up 6th. Journeyman Dave Blaney ran his best race of the year in crossing the line 9th. Travis Kvapil, who’s making a Cup comeback this year after a solid career in the Craftsman Truck Series finished 8th on a fitting night where he was sponsored by Lafayette Ford, sponsor the #28 back in the Freddy Lorenzen days.

Some the other name drivers deserve a shout out for their performances. Carl Edwards’ finish is amazing when you consider he started at near the back of the field. Jeff Gordon has a great race to vault himself into the top 10 for the point standings. And Dale Jr.? Well, he was consistent again, racking up another top five and ready to strike if anyone faltered.

But above all else, Tony Stewart gets the “Rocky Balboa” Award- fighting, gouging and clawing his way to a respectable 21st after tangling with Elliott Sadler on the 3rd lap.

No- this race was definitely NOT what I expected- however, I was not disappointed with the racing and the thrill of a Saturday race under the lights.

 By the way- Happy Mother’s Day to the two best Moms in the world- my mom, Lenore Pittock of Keizer, Oregon. Thanks for believing in me, and letting me test out my ever-running mouthon your longsuffering ears. Then of course, there’s my lovely wife Lynnae, without whom I would not be a dad to the cutest kids in the world.

To all you Moms- HAPPY MOTHER’S DAY FROM THE BOYS AT ‘THE FINISH LINE.”Zooooom…

 

Race Re-Cap: Rumble In Richmond

I suspect this scene will be happening in a hotel somewhere tonight. “Yeah, I’d like to get a room for one night.” “Uh, my name, Butz. Seymour Butz.” Kyle Busch’s mug is going to be hard to hide, but he’d better do what he can to mask his identity until he gets of Virginia after his fender bender with Dale Earnhardt Jr. late in the Crown Royal Presents the Dan Lowry 400 in Richmond, Virginia. The anger I’m seeing is just about frying my computer.

You can’t blame Junior Nation for being mad. Junebug looked like he was a winner after Denny Hamlin’s tire went flat. Up until the point of impact, it was a good old-fashioned bump ‘n’ grind short track drag race between Earnhardt and Busch. Then it happened. The “18″ and “88″ collided, sending Earnhardt spinning off into another disappointing finish, and opening the door to victory for Clint Bowyer, who picked up his 2nd career NASCAR Sprint Cup win.

Everybody has their own opinion about the “incident” and I’ve got my own, which I will keep to myself. Let me just say it was a bummer to see two of the best cars in the field (Hamlin and Junior) finish outside the top 5 after the night they had.

Earlier today, I said it would be either Hamlin or Junior that would win. For about 373 laps, Hamlin was proving me right. Everything Denny needed from his car in terms of a set-up he had. It was setting up to be a feel good story that would have only been eclipsed by Earnhardt ending his victory drought: the local boy wins near his hometown of Chesterfield, Virginia. Hamlin and crew chief Mike Ford were simpatico, and then that danged tire went down, opening a Pandora’s box for what would happen next.

I find it a little hard to be angry at Denny, but it’s too bad he didn’t get off the track for new tires once he knew the tire was going down. At the end of the day, I think he would have ended up at the same place. Hamlin has been hot up until now, but there’s no doubt we were exposed to Denny’s Achilles’ heel.  The #11 FedEx has this maddening tendency to beat itself with silly mistakes. Don’t get me wrong, the tire wasn’t his fault, but not getting off the track sooner was- whether it was Hamlin’s decision or Ford’s.

Give props to Clint Bowyer for the win. Bowyer’s finish serves as the new “Exhibit A” as to why one should never give up. The #07 Chevy hung around in the spirit and tradition of David Pearson to emerge a victor. Given how things played out, it seems fitting that a guy that nobody seems to truly dislike comes out with the win.

My “Rocky Balboa” Award will be shared by Jeff Gordon and Kevin Harvick. Gordon started 43rd, but fought and clawed his way towards the front- giving him a decent end to what was a horrid weekend for his team. Harvick did a great job of hanging tough and staying hungry, even though it seemed apparent his car had recurring issues.

In addition to be bummed for Hamlin and Earnhardt, I was also bummed for Patrick Carpentier. He qualified well and was doing a good job of gaining on-the-job experience until he got collected in a big-time way in what started out as the Dave Blaney-J.J. Yeley incident. Talk about being in the wrong place at the wrong time!

We saw good racing tonight- it’s too bad it finished like this. While I lean more towards a “race incident” opinion on the Earnhardt-Busch affair, there can be no question Kyle Busch has found himself on the same unfortunate path his older brother Kurt took a way years back. After tonight, I’m quite sure his list of detractors has increased exponentially, and further mars the reputation of one of NASCAR’s most talented young drivers. Give credit to Junior for handling the post-race T.V. interview with grace, there’s no question his entire demeanor was heavy with disappointment. Nobody would have blamed him for running over to Busch and popping him, but that’s never been his style, and I’m proud of him for it.

Wouldn’t it have been cool if Mark Martin had won? Whatever he’s got in that car he ran in Phoenix and this place, he needs to bottle that up!

It also would have been fun for Bobby Labonte to pull out a win in the “Speed Racer” Dodge. 

As for Busch, well…..for my part I like his driving and I don’t think he’s half the jerk some think he is. BUT tonight’s incident won’t help his case or mine.

For every driver and fan disappointed by tonight’s finish, there is always the new hope brought by the promise of another week at the “Dark Lady” of Darlington. If it goes next week like it’s been going lately- it’s gonna be a show and a half. 

Fearless Forecast: Who Will Get Their First 2008 Win at Phoenix?

This a lot more art than it is science. Given that, I am impressed that the vast majority of the TV broadcast crew successfully picked Carl Edwards to win at Texas over Junior. Oh well, at least D.W. agreed with me- which depending on who you are is either good or bad.

Phoenix is a one mile track with a short track feel. There’s not as much banking here. So I’m thinking raw engine power won’t be as much of a factor. Given the short track feel, I’m also thinking that like many others, track position will be important to avoid the crashers at the back of the pack.

You also have to factor history into the equation. 3 active drivers have won two Cup races here: Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Burton, and Kevin Harvick. All three have enjoyed a good start to their 2008 season- with Burton at the top of the standings, Harvick right behind his RCR teammate and Jr. in 4th. Pretty safe to say they’ll be factors. By way of information, it should be noted that Tony Stewart, Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Mark Martin, and Bill Elliott have also seen victory lane at Phoenix. The victories will certainly give you some indication of a driver’s mastery of the track, but that doesn’t mean everything. I mean it’s safe to say no one is expecting Elliott to win with the #21 Ford (his PIS victory came in 1989) barely got in. I also have slight doubts about Martin winning, too. Oh, his #8 DEI Chevy has the potential to RUN well, but it DOEs help to know Martin’s win came while employed by Jack Roush. So, before using past wins as a measuring stick, it pays to drill a little deeper and consider the conditions under which a driver won.

So, I suppose you also have to factor in the “new” car factor. There have been two previous races at Phoenix using the car formerly known as the “CoT.” That narrows the list of winners here down to Gordon and Johnson. It’s important to know this, because I think any serious fan will agree this car is a different breed of cat. There’s not a ton of history on this car, but there is more of a track record at PIS.

There is also plenty of other statistical abstract you can fall back on- if you use “Driver Rating”- Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick, Jeff Gordon, Kurt Busch and Tony Stewart have the highest track rating at Phoenix in that order. The formula is as tricky as quarterback efficiency rating in the NFL. All I’ll say is the formula looks good and the drivers on this list look impressive to me.

I’m also becoming convinced that qualifying position is overrated. Oh, don’t get me wrong, it’s better to start up front and get a good run going in the clean air than to have 40 schmoes in front of you, some of whom may have any number of things wrong with their cars, or even their heads from time to time. But let’s face it, do you REALLY think Elliott Sadler will hold that #2 position all race long? Starting track position cannot offset equipment problems, or less than brilliant driving skills. I don’t mean to be harsh- but there are reasons, perhaps several that may explain why Jeff Gordon has 81 wins and Kenny Schrader (as good as he is) hasn’t won a race since George H.W. Bush was President.

But for all of that, you can’t figure just plain dumb luck. No less than Richard Petty said that some of his mind boggling 27 wins in 1967 were plain old luck. We’ ve all seen it: some days, you just have one bad part. Sometimes you just happen to be in the wrong place when the driver in front of you loses it. Sometimes you’re the windshield, sometimes you’re the bug.

I suppose I’ve said all this to let you know I just don’t draw names out of a hat, or that I pull my predictions out of my……..nose. I suppose I’m defensive about this because I’ve come close often this season, but I’m well on my way to becoming the Dave Blaney of NASCAR forecasting. Now that’s not the worst thing in the world, but I WANT BETTER RESULTS.

At the end of the day, it’s all about having fun and starting a lively discussion, maybe even a little smack. But, given my competitive nature, it’s more fun when you’re right.

I know what you’re thinking…”So who’s gonna win already!!!!!”

Going as much as anything from the gut, I predict that:

JIMMIE JOHNSON WILL WIN AT PHOENIX.

Why? He’s won at Phoenix in the Car of Tomorrow, with 33 Cup victories and 2 Cup titles, he’s a proven winner and most of all…..he’s very pissed off and is smart enough to know how to channel that frustration. Driving for HMS- the New York Yankees of NASCAR- doesn’t hurt.