Brian Vickers

Fearless Forecast: Smoke Will Sweep at Talladega

It’s just a hunch. By now, every serious NASCAR fan knows how Tony Stewart has finished 2nd 6 times in Cup competition. He’s been knocking on the door for quite some time….and tomorrow Tony Stewart’s kicking it down.

Here’s what I’m expecting tomorrow…..the teams that have put forward the stout engines will run up front. Look for strong (and victory worthy) performances from the HMS boys: Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt Jr., and Casey Mears. Remember that Junior has won at ‘Dega 5 times and Gordon 6. There’s no reason to believe they won’t be in the mix.

This assumption also bodes well for Stewart and his Gibbs’ teammates Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin. In fact, I number Hamlin, Kasey Kahne and Ryan Newman as my dark horses. Yes, I expect Dodge to be well represented tomorrow, so that means Kurt Busch could be a part of the action.

With that extra horsepower, I expect other Toyotas to run well…..you should not be shocked if Michael Waltrip (a super speedway specialist of sorts), Brian Vickers (also a former Talladega winner), or even A.J. Allmendinger make a substantial amount of noise. In fact, I considered using Mikey as my “upset special” pick. Now that’s a fearless forecast!

Of course, I wish good things for those unexpected front-runners. I mean, who here expected Joe Nemechek and Ken Shrader in the top 5? Hear that sound of silence?

All speculation aside (and Heaven knows I;ve heard more insane tea leaf reading than I care to think about this week), here’s what you need to know…..

Tony Stewart will win (again) at Talladega!!

 

 

 

Pull Your Belts Tight!- Talladega Edition

Up Next: The Aaron’s 499, Talladega Superspeedway, Talladega, AL- Sunday, April 27, 2008 at 2:00 p.m., broadcast on FOX- TV.

Bill France Sr. unveiled this track in 1969- designed to be “the world’s fastest speedway.”  Due to driver concerns regarding tires on this 2.66 mile track, many Cup drivers sat it out. France tried to prove the safety of the track by running laps himself, but the argument fell on deaf ears. A handful of Cup drivers ran with Grand National and ARCA drivers on that first race in September of 1969. Richard Brickhouse picked up his only NASCAR Cup win.

Talladega Superspeedway is a 2.66 mile ”superspeedway” with 18 degrees banking on the tri-oval, 2 degrees on the back stretch, and 33 degrees on the turns.

Track Records: While Brickhouse won the first race, Dale Earnhardt won the most at this track in the heart of the deep South. ”The Intimidator” won 10 races at Talladega. The “Pole King” here is Bill Elliott. “Awesome Bill from Dawsonville” has captured 8 poles, including  the fastest qualifying speed ever in NASCAR Cup competition, a blistering 212.809 m.p.h., making a lap time of 44.998 seconds. Mark Martin ran the fastest race in 1997, running a time of 2 hours, 39 minutes, and 18 seconds, his average speed was 188.354 m.p.h. “Mr. September,” Harry Gant, is the oldest Talladega winner- he won just 3 months after his 51st birthday in 1991. The youngest? Bobby Hillin Jr. was 22 when he won at the Alabama track in 1986. The record for the most cautions is 11- in April of 2004. No cautions waved 3 times, the most recent in October of 2002.

Some races are races, some races are events. Talladega is a NASCAR event. Talladega’s race may not occur on or near a holiday, and it may not be the “Superbowl of NASCAR” like Daytona, and it’s not the first or last race of the season- but it’s still a big deal. Dale Earnhardt Jr., a 5-time winner at Talladega, likens the infield to Mardi Gras, and from the images I’ve seen, I’d just say this may not be a race i’d take my kids to. The fact that fans threw beer cans (some full, some not) at winner Jeff Gordon this time last year says a great deal for the condition of a lot of fans by Sunday evening when it all ends. Talladega is also home to some of the most famous crashes of all time- Elliott Sadler’s spectacular wreck a few seasons back stands out. The speeds reached are just outrageous, and Elliott’s qualifying run was one of the reasons why restrictor plates were introduced to tracks like Talladega to slow things down.

Talladega may very well be the “House of Earnhardt.” Between Cup and Nationwide racing Dale and Dale Jr. have won 17 races.

This track is a “House of Champions” and a “House of Wild Cards.” Jeff Gordon, Kurt Busch and Tony Stewart boast the best driver ratings here among active drivers. This place also represents the place where Brian Vickers has his only Cup win, as well as Bobby Hillin, Richard Brickhouse, and Phil Parsons- plus Michael Waltrip, Sterling Marlin, Dave Marcis and Bobby Hamilton picked up rare career wins here as well.

With speed being the word of the day, I expect that the extra power the Toyota engines have will help Joe Gibbs, Red Bull, Bill Davis and Michael Waltrip make things interesting. By the same token- Chevy’s have dominated at Talladega, thanks to the Earnhardts, 6- time winner Jeff Gordon, Ernie Irvan, and Marlin among others. This bodes well for Richard Childress and HMS- the premier bow tie teams. Don’t count the Dodges out- Kurt Busch and Ryan Newman looked great in practice today- as did Elliott Sadler and Kasey Kahne.

Last fall’s CoT race at Talladega was a bit of a bore as it seemed racers were reluctant to let it all hang it out in the middle of Chase, but let’s see how it goes Sunday. With extra cockpit time comes greater boldness, so let’s hope for a better race this time.

Drafting will be a factor here. “Smoke” has finished 2nd 6 times at Talladega. It’s his opinion that this a place where a driver needs help in the draft to win. One thing for sure the design of the new car does allow for better bumper-to-tail contact. Stewart says this race will be a “chess match.” He says he’s better at checkers.

Due to scheduling constraints, there will be no “NASCAR Terminology” in this weeks edition. Look for that to return next week.

I gotta run. Late tomorrow night, I will give you my “Fearless Forecast” for Sunday.

Happy racing!

 

NASCAR Stocks: Who’s Contending? Who’s Pretending?

We’re coming off a Sunday break from Cup racing, so there’s no real sense in attempting to update the power poll going into Talladega. However- this break in the action allows us to assess how the field is shaping. In fact, I’ll go as far as to say how I think is contending and who is pretending.

The Gladiators: The personalities and nameplates differ, but here’s what I think ALL of the front runners have in common: they’ve got a fire in their belly and an iron will to make victory lane. Right now- I’ve got to think the most serious Cup contenders are: Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch, Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr. You have to love the diversity- we have a Toyota, a Ford and two Chevy guys. You’ve got the personable Edwards, the business-like Johnson, the bad boy Busch, and the popular Earnhardt. These guys have demonstrated the total package- equipment, funding, skill and passion.

Ready to pounce. There’s a second group of drivers close behind that stand poised to capitalize on any mistake by the first group, and frankly they’re no less contenders. Jeff Burton, Tony Stewart, and Denny Hamlin are all right there- and Burton and Hamlin havewins to boot. Stewart is a notorious second half runner, Burton is a savvy driver (and also solid first-half guy) and Hamlin has charged hard as of late.  

Still on the lead lap: Just a little further back are guys who shouldn’t be counted out, because they know how to win and they’re due for some good luck. Kasey Kahne, Jeff Gordon, Ryan Newman, Greg Biffle, Clint Bowyer, and Kevin Harvick need to put something together and they have the teams to do it.

Lucky dogs: These guys could all make runs and make it interesting. At times, they’ve all looked very promising but can’t seem to close the deal. Martin Truex Jr., David Ragan, Kurt Busch, Jamie Mc Murray and maybe even Bobby Labonte or Brian Vickers still have a small chance. I never really imagined the elder Busch on the outside looking in, but he’s been invisible since Daytona. Mc Murray and Ragan look determined in the chase not to be cut by Jack Roush, Ragan may have more upside. Tuex may break the top 12 yet. Sentimentally, I’d love to see Labonte get in, but there are doubts about the equipment he’s got.

So there you are- there’s 18 drivers who are at least somewhat in the mix. The field may be even deeper than that if Juan Pablo Montoya, Elliott Sadler and Paul Menard can put something together.

What you have is a season with more twists and turns so far than Watkins Glen. Here’s hoping we still have something to talk about by the final turn.

 

Pull Your Belts Tight! (Texas Preview)

Up Next: The Samsung/ Radio Shack 500, Texas Motor Speedway, Forth Worth, Texas, Sunday, April 6, 2008, 1:30 p.m. EDT, 10:30 a.m. for those in Rio Linda and points elsewhere in the Pacific. Broadcast on FOX- TV and MRN radio.

Track Facts: TMS is a 1.5 mile oval track with 24-degree banking in the turns and 5-degrees on the straights. This was once home to one of the fastest non-restrictor plate tracks on the circuit with qualifying times that pushed 200 miles per hour in earlier years. Jeff Burton won the first race here in 1997. Two races per year are held at this track. Burton has won more Cup races than any other driver, signalling parity and a good chance we may see yet another different driver winning here. Brandon Gaughan has won four CTS races at Texas. Two Cup drivers have three Nationwide wins in the Lone Star state- Mark Martin and Kevin Harvick- the top two all-time Nationwide winners. Ryan Newman and Bobby Labonte have won the most poles, ironic because Labonte has never won at his home state track, and Newman’s in-race performance at TMS doesn’t measure of to his performances elsewhere.

Track Records: Of all people, Brian Vickers holds the qualifying record, with a speed of 196.235 m.p.h. for a lap time of 27.518 seconds back in November, 2005. This was back in Vickers days at HMS. The race record is held by Carl Edwards. On that very same weekend, Edwards ran a race at TMS in 3 hours and 19 minutes, or an average speed of 151.055 m.p.h. Ryan Newman won here the age of 25 years, 3 months and 22 days in 2003 making him the youngest race winner at Texas. Dale Jarrett holds the record for the oldest winner at age 44 years, 4 months, 6 days in 2001. The record for the most caution flags on this fast track is 12, which happened on 3 occasions- most recently the November, 2007 event. The fewest? 6- in 2005.

This will be a different race than what we’ve seen at the last two. Texas is a fast track, with speeds often pushing 200 miles per hour. Speed will be more of a factor, favoring the teams with good equipment and the drivers who can take care of it. Interestingly enough, the winners here tend to be past champions- the Texas honor roll includes Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, Dale Jarrett and Matt Kenseth. Kurt Busch has also at the Lone Star track in the Nationwide Series.

The hot drivers right now are guys who’ve won in Texas- Jeff Burton, Kevin Harvick, Greg Biffle, and Dale Earnhardt all have the highest recent average finishes, and whether it in the CTS, Nationwide or Cup competition, they have wins in Texas. The exception? 4 time Cup titlist Jeff Gordon. Texas and Homestead are the only tracks that “The Rainbow Warrior” has not won at.

I have an opinion as to who will win, you’ll have to read my “Fearless Forecast” Saturday to find out who.

NASCAR Terminology- A NASCAR for Dummies Primer (and a handy guide for the rest of us)

Cowl induction: Now, we’re not talking winning over that surly American Idol judge. Cowl induction is the housing for the air cleaner connects the air intake at the base of the windshield to the carburetor.

Sway (anti-roll) Bar: It’s only fitting given their high visibility presence due to the Jack Roush/ Michael Waltrip flap. This magical part that gets Roush so angry (not the sarcasm her) is used to resist or counteract the rolling force of the car through the turns. Not as influential in making a car go fast as, say, a removed oil tank lid.

Alternate Exit: as opposed to the alternate reality Jack Roush (oops, I did it again) lives in. NASCAR issued a recommendation to teams in 2003 for an alternate exit, more commonly known as a roof hatch. The safety initiative provides drivers with an alternate exit through a “hatch” in the roof of the car in the event of an emergency situation.

That’s all for today folks! Pull your belts tight, ‘cuz its gonna be a fast one!!

It’s Crunch Time For The New “Go or Go Homers”

It’s a long, hard fall for some of the guys who comprise the new list of “go or go home” drivers now that we’re 5 races into the 2008 season and we are no longer running off of the 2007 standings. While I’m sure Michael Waltrip, David Reutimann and Brian Vickers are relieved to be off of this list, thanks to improvements made by Toyota, there are others that have to be seriously concerned about what this portends for their 2008 season. For some, it may mean that their season is awash in anxiety.

Imagine being in Kyle Petty’s shoes. For most of his career, he’s been an automatic entry into the field. As it stands right now, I’d be very concerned if I were him. In looking over qualifying times over the last several races, The #45 has consistently run at or near the bottom of the list. Even when he gets in the race, it’s been monumentally difficult to get above NASCAR’s “Mendoza Line” (35th) to get out of this dreaded category.

It sucks. Just watch a couple of qualifying heats and you see how falling into the “go or go home” category completely fouls up anything resembling a strategy. You have to trim your car to run as fast as it will go just to get in at the expense of running for the duration of a 250-500 mile race. That doesn’t even take into account being at the mercy of poor weather conditions and being shut out if qualifying has to be canceled. Then there’s dealing with being at the end of the qualifying line and all the nerves that come with waiting it out to see if you get in.

Petty has plenty of company- drivers not used to being in this position: former open wheel stud Dario Franchitti joins Patrick Carpentier as drivers who have to get in on time. They’ll be joined by the likes of Jamie Mc Murray and Dave Blaney. These are guys you don’t expect to be joining the ranks of Burney Long and Stanton Barrett.

I have to imagine Mc Murray will pull through this- though you have to think this will make the driver of the Roush-Fenway #26 an odds-on-favorite to be cut when Jack Roush is required to go from 5 teams to 4 next year. Mc Murray has the backing of good equipment, so you’d think he’d be able to raise his standing quickly. By the same token, that Mc Murray finds himself in this position in spite of having a good product to work with doesn’t say good things about his skills.

It reminds me again of my disdain for the Top 35 “automatic qualifying rules.”On this rare occasion, I join the traditional NASCAR fan base by saying everybody in the field should get in on time. I get why the governing body has the rule, as sponsors pay BIG bucks to get their logos on the cars, and it doesn’t behoove a corporation to pay the big green if their car never gets camera time. After all, only the truly seriousfan watches the quals. By the same token, what does this do for the companies who sponsor go or go home drivers? Quick- do you have any idea who sponsors Boris Said? I didn’t think you did. I don’t easily remember either.

My argument to eliminate the rule would be this: If all the other guys are as good as their performance suggests, they’ll get in. Watch the qualifying times of the likes of Tony Stewart or Jeff Gordon. About the only time one of the big boys runs lower than top 30 is generally if they’ve wrecked. A miss for one of the top 20 would be rare.

I wish these guys well. Hopefully- NASCAR will see the light on this and we won’t be subject to further “back room deals” like the Hornish- Kurt Busch points swap.

It’s really not good for the sport.

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