Curing the Off-Season Blahs

I don’t care who you are, even the most die hard fan finds it hard to stay inspired during the off-season. Even NASCAR, with it’s outrageously short hiatus of two and three-quarter months, leaves its fans moaning the blues for a time. Even though we know the folks that make the sport go round need a break once in a while, we still clamor for “more, more, more.” It’s just like cousin Clem’s moonshine, the answer to the question of “How much is enough?” is invariably “Just a little bit more.”

On this fine Christmas day, my dear wife has come to my rescue. At the expense of sounding like a corporate shill, I am going to plug my source of relief to get me through these next 54 days as we await the 2008 edition of the Daytona 500. Much to my delight, I am now the proud owner of  ESPN’s “Ultimate NASCAR Volumes 1 through 4.” I just finished watching volume one, and man am I inspired. This installment has me pondering a wealth of NASCAR subject matter from its personalities to all the changes coming down.

I know many fans have numerous issues concerning the current state of NASCAR and it’s coverage- especially at ABC/ESPN. While I agree their in-race coverage could stand a major tune up, I think you’d agree that America’s premier sports network deserves props for a couple of things: #1- ESPN put NASCAR on the national map back in a time when NASCAR was considered a mere regional sport. #2- ESPN does do an excellent job with programs and features. The DVD I just watched has been brilliantly produced and has a little something for everybody.

In volume one, ESPN explores the rise of the sport from its inception back in the late 1940’s, thanks to Bill France Sr. and his band of rogues. In 58 years, it’s truly amazing to see how “stock car” racing has evolved from the moonshine running dare devils of yesteryear to the high tech poster boys of today. It’s grown from a day where 12 races a year occurred within a 200 mile radius to today- where we have race stops that range from New Hampshire to California. I know France Senior was a visionary, but America’s #2 sport behind only the NFL? I don’t know if he could have seen the explosion we have now.  This series does a great job of taking us through these changes, while keeping it interesting.

I’m quite sure a volume like this is not the only one of its kind. They’re fun to watch and they make you think some about where stock car racing has been and where it’s going. It’s a great way to get through a winter day.

It sure beats shoveling snow and Seinfeld re-runs.

Foreign Invasion

With all apologies to Ohio native Sam Hornish, NASCAR will experience a veritable foreign invasion of open wheel drivers in 2008. NASCAR is beginning to remind me of tennis, where you about need a pronounciation guide to properly say the names of the participants. Coming up, the tracks will be graced by the likes of Jacques Villanueve, Dario Franchitti, Patrick Carpentier, and we can also expect to see the face of Marcos Ambrose in Cup competition as well.

Traditionalists struggle with this as it is yet another sign of NASCAR’s changing landscape. For such folks, the Chase and the “Car of Tomorrow” are bad enough. Now we have foreign drivers and a foreign manufacturer! What in the name of Richard Petty is going on?

Count me as one who is cool with the new faces. For one thing, all those people who claim the superiority of other motor sports are getting a rude awakening. The above mentioned drivers got their feet wet in NASCAR competition and most did not fair that well. Hornish had a hard time just making races. And while Franchitti and Villanueve made races, both had problems finishing races. Really, the only former open wheeler to recently make the conversion and enjoy any real success was the same guy to lead the recent wave- Juan Pablo Montoya. I know many fans have had some real problems with his attitude and his aggressiveness, but the struggles of the others bear two things- Montoya is an incredibly good drivers AND it’s not as easy as it looks.

I also think the presence of this new wave of drivers raises the profile of the sport. The stereotype of NASCAR being occupied by toothless rednecks no longer holds water. The strength of NASCAR is borne out in that it’s not being invaded by no-talent scrubs- in the likes of Franchitti and Hornish you have some real live, bona fide open wheel studs. It will be sure to bring over Indy car fans for at least a cursory glance.

Of course, this isn’t the first time we’ve seen open wheel racers cross over. Long before Tony Stewart and J.J. Yeley made the jump, NASCAR’s tracks have seen the likes of Mario Andretti and A.J. Foyt- who won 7 Cup races in 12 years of very limited NASCAR racing.

The recent wave will also fuel some additional healthy debate- something NASCAR always seems to thrive on.

Team Penske Owner Points Switch: A Smart Use of a Dumb Idea

As a NASCAR Nation neophyte, I am not one to generally complain about recent NASCAR innovations such as the Car of Tomorrow or the Chase. I understand how the CoT makes sense economically and safety-wise. As for the Chase, I’m not 100% bought in to the idea, but I understand the reasons why, and I agree that the old points system was flawed. To detractors, I’d borrow the old Bill Clinton line: “Mend it, but don’t end it.”

There is an exception, though. I have a passionate dislike for the top 35 owner points system where teams in the top 35 automatically qualify, leaving on average about 13 teams vying for 8 qualifying spots. To the serious NASCAR fan, the racers trying to qualify on time are known as “Go, or go home” drivers. The automatic qualifiers only go through the exercise to determine where in the line-up they’ll be. further complicating affairs is the “champion provision”, where past Cup champions are allotted 6 races a year where they are essentially given a pass as a reward for past excellence.  To hear the talking heads tell it, this rule is a boon for sponsors. Sponsors of top 35 cars have the assurance of knowing that their car will always get in the race and get the track time and camera time, thus the exposure sponsors are looking for in return for their investment. I can understand it, but I hate the rule.

It makes it very difficult for smaller teams to get in. Quite often, most non-qualifiers barely miss the field, and often the same guys (Ward Burton and Kevin Lepage among others) are the ones not making it- even they may run faster than a past champion like Bill Elliott. Wood Brothers Racing brought “Awesome Bill” out of retirement to run their #21 knowing that he could automatically get in a few races and hopfully vault them into the top 35. Smart move.

Similarly inspired, Roger Penske’s team has been granted permission to transfer Kurt Busch’s points from the #2 car to former Indy car champ and NASCAR newbie Sam Hornish Jr. In 2007, Hornish struggled, missing the first six races he attempted to enter- showing that NASCAR driving may not be as easy as it looks. Now that Hornish gts Busch’s top 35 points and champion provisional, he’ll have a much easier road in 2008 as he adjusts to NASCAR’s cars and tracks. Pretty slick. Don’t cry for Busch. As a result of his driving prowess and being on a well-funded team, the 2004 Cup champion should do just fine.

If NASCAR allows it, why not? Hornish can focus on driving and not qualifying- which is a gut wrenching process if you’ve ever watched the “go or go home” drivers go through it. The focus is completely on getting in the field, rather than on preparing the car to successfully run the race. Quick- when was the last time a “go or go homer” ever won a race? I couldn’t tell you.

Call me old- fashioned, but I say only the fastest 43 qualify. Forget the top 35.  Most cars IN the top 35 will make it in on time anyway. I can tell you it’s been a long time since a top driver had worse than a top 43 time, so to me, the whole sponsorship mentioned above is rarely an issue. However- if Jeff Gordon or Tony Stewart can’t get in on time- then they don’t deserve it. It’s really that simple. Let the top guys experience that agony of trying to make the race.

That’s leveling the playing field. That’s REAL racing.

In the meanwhile, props to Team Penske for making the system work for their rookie.

Busch Whacking: Should the Cup Guys Run in the Junior Varsity?

Yesterday, NASCAR called the top ten drivers from the erstwhile Busch Series to discuss a number of issues, not the least of which is the controversial presence of Cup (the top level of NASCAR) drivers at the second level, which will be title sponsored by Nationwide in 2008. NASCAR fans have a number of gripes, and one of them is the fact that Cup drivers have tended to dominate the “second series”- full-time Cup driver Carl Edwards won the Busch Series title in 2007 and veteran driver Kevin Harvick took the trophy in 2006. This season, the highest ranking full-time Busch driver was Jason Leffler (who finished third)- the rest of the top ten was littered primarily by drivers you’d also see at the Cup level.

Cup drivers have been a part of the Busch scene since its inception in 1982, growing out the NASCAR Sportsman’s Division, later the NASCAR Late Model Sportsman Division. The all-time leading winner at this level is none other than the original “Buschwhacker” Mark Martin, with 47 trips to victory lane, many coming after he found success at the top.

Disgruntled fans claim that the Nationwide Series should be a developmental or “feeder” series for aspiring Sprint drivers, that the presence of Cup drivers hampers the development of aspiring Cup drivers and hurts the small Busch only teams struggling to qualify and survive. The reality is, the series has more or less lacked an identity all along. Yes- Busch competition has done great things to further the development of Dale Earnhardt Jr., Martin Truex, Brian Vickers, and most recently, A.J. Allemendinger. By the same token, there are a number of older drivers who race almost exclusively in the middle tier division- Mike Wallace, Jason Keller and Ashton Lewis among others. Heck, we even a have a genuine senior citizen, the 65-year-old Morgan Shepherd still taking laps. Along with that, you also have full time Cup regulars who often pull double duty- Edwards, Harvick, Greg Biffle, and David Reutimann to name a few. They insist they do it for their love of racing- that it’s more fun to go out run with the “other guys” than hang out and watch.

Some suggest kicking full-time Cup drivers out altogether. While expedient, it has the potential to hurt the sport. Honestly, having Edwards and Harvick running around the track draws more fans than seeing Stephen Leicht or Kyle Krisiloff. More fans in the stands of course means more money for NASCAR, the track owners and better exposure for the sponsors. Successful Busch driver Marcos Ambrose has even commented that racing against Cup drivers has helped him gauge his own development. Interesting point.

Others have suggested that Cup drivers could compete, but that they’d receive no points for running in the standings- thus enabling the full-time Busch/Nationwide drivers to enjoy the spoils of success. Needless to say, Edwards hated the idea. I don’t know- it just seems like a half-baked idea. It’d be like a baseball player playing and not recording his stats. It just seems to go against the grain of good, old-fashioned competition. If somebody’s performing with excellence- then he should be rewarded for it.

Now here’s an idea I can buy into: put a limit on the number of races a Cup driver can enter. As I recall, the number 15 has been bantied around, a little less than half the schedule. That sounds good to me. You would give the driver and his team the choice, so it would have the likely effect of having some Cup driver presence in every race. It sounds reasonable to me.

The outcome of this discussion remains to be seen. As a fan, I’m just encouraged to see that it is actually reviewed and discussed. The other sports don’t do this often enough.

A Champion By Any Measure

Give it a rest! Jimmie Johnson is the 2007 Nextel Cup champion! Keep in mind, this is from a Jeff Gordon fan who has no particular allegiance to the guy that Gordon has befriended and guided through his five seasons of NASCAR racing.

Fellow Gordon fans continue to point out that under the old system, Gordon would have won his fifth Cup title. Actually, most Chase detractors are quite quick to point out Gordon would have also been crowned champion in 2004 were it not for NASCAR’s “playoff” system that paved the way for Kurt Busch to win the big prize that season.

This Gordon fan sees things differently.

Understand that I am still not 100% sold on the Chase format as it currently stands. It does seem to me that some kind of reward is due in terms of points or seeding for a driver who possesses a big lead or has dominated up to the time of the beginning of the Chase run. To the point that Gordon fans make that his early season efforts went unrewarded, I say that I understand where they’re coming from. By the same token, I can’t sign off on the old system- which allowed Matt Kenseth a championship with only ONE victory in 2003. That’s messed up. Or Gordon fans, how about when Terry Labonte won the 1996 Cup with TWO wins, compared to Gordon’s 10? Both systems have their flaws.

I also understand that the old system rewarded consistency, and it can be argued Gordon was a model of consistency with 30 top 10 finishes. Gordon also had fewer DNFs than Johnson.

Nonetheless, Jimmie Johnson is a legitimate champion.

How can you dismiss the fact that Johnson nearly doubled Gordon’s victory total? Add to that the fact Gordon’s victory total dwarfed the accomplishments of the rest of the NASCAR field. In racing, it’s not different than any other sport. It’s still all about the win, and Johnson had 10, Gordon 6.

Johnson got hot at the end. Four victories in a row is no small feat, when you consider that the last time we saw a streak this long, Bill Clinton was still our president, and people were just beginning to worry about Y2K. Jeff Gordon was the last driver to win four consecutive races, doing so in 1998. Heck, Bobby Labonte won a cup title with four wins in 2000! Anyone who sustains that kind of streak at crunch time is deserving of a title in my book.

Let’s take a look at their performances during the Chase. According to Dan Beaver at yahoo.com, Johnson had an average finish of 5.0, Gordon 5.1.It’s very close, but when you couple that to winning 4 of the final 5 races, it makes a case for Johnson as a legitimate champion. Yes, I’ll concede it’s very close. Still, Johnson comes out on top.

Yes, fellow Gordon fans, I still get that Gordon was the best driver during the first 26 races- even though Johnson had one more win. When it’s that close, it can be argued that consistency has to be considered when sorting out the better driver. However, at “playoff time,” Jimmie pulled away.

Look at it another way. In other sports, we have countless accounts of teams that we the best during the regular season that didn’t even make the Finals. We see it happening time and time again in college basketball. How about the Seattle Mariners team that won 116 games? How many dominant Colts teams didn’t make the Super Bowl? Any number of factors, including injuries, can play a part in a great team falling down at crunch time. Sometimes, some teams can’t handle the pressure. I wouldn’t say that of Gordon, but I would say that in a comparison of Crew Chiefs, Chad Knaus made better calls than Steve Letarte.

Johnson should be commended for his aggressiveness down the stretch. That was a gamble that paid off. With any lesser team, the strategy could have backfired (see Dale Earnhardt Jr. for reference). That aggressiveness got Johnson a title.

One he deserved.

A Junior Revival? JGR Wins For Toyota? Early Bird Predictions for 2008

Man, it’s a good thing the NASCAR off-season is short. Fans are going crazy with speculation over what the NEXT season holds in store. We’ll be getting used to new names (Sprint will take over sponsorship at the Cup level, while Nationwide takes over the namesake for the the second tier series from Busch), and we’ll be seeing lots of familiar faces in new places. I won’t get too crazy with reckless prognostications about what I see happening in 2008, but I am certain of the following:

Junior Revival- Dale Earnhardt, recently voted NASCAR’s most popular driver for the fifth year in a row, will give something for his fans to cheer about in the new year. The move to Hendrick Motorsports gives Junior a fresh start after a particularly frustrating 2007 season with a truckload of engine failures and off the track distractions. Junior raced his tail off in the latter stages of the season, but you could tell he was pressing and his demeanor was de-pressing.

It’s also no secret that the move to Hendrick provides Earnhardt the best equipment and resources in the business. Their 2007 performance provides ample evidence that the Hendrick got the jump on the Car of Tomorrow. Add to that the spirit of teamwork that Rick Hendrick has instilled in his organization, and one can see why better things are expected of NASCAR’s favorite son. These guys simply have their act together, and the winning ways of Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon will rub off on Earnhardt.

I predict a minimum of 3 wins for the #88 Mt. Dew/Amp Chevrolet in 2008 and a spot in the Chase.

The Joe Gibbs Team Won’t Miss A Beat- A lot has been made of Joe Gibbs’ announced switch to Toyota from Chevrolet. Toyota endured a rough debut in 2007, as Toyota drivers not only struggled to run well, they struggled to even get in the race! These ill fortunes have left may questioning the wisdom of JGR making such a move, especially when one considers that their star driver, Tony Stewart, has had a long standing alliance with Chevrolet in some of his personal business pursuits.

I say both sides knew what they were getting into when they signed the papers. Gibbs knows that a disastrous 2008 campaign would mark the end of their affiliation with Stewart, who’s up for contract renewal. Toyota is also well aware that their credibility within the sport is at stake. We Don’t know all of what was said behind closed doors, but I am quite sure that J.D. Gibbs was given replete assurances from the Japan-based manufacturer that they would spare no expense in becoming more competitive with their engines.

You know what? I think  they will. I predict that at least two Gibbs drivers will make the Chase: most likely Stewart and Kyle Busch. I wouldn’t discount Denny Hamlin either. Between the three JGR drivers, I predict a minimum of seven wins.

All you have to do is look at how Toyota has performed in the Craftsman Truck Series to know how they develop. They went from being a punch line to powerful in relatively short order. Going with Gibbs gives Toyota a top flight organization to work with, something that was missing in 2007, with all apologies to start up teams like Red Bull and Michael Waltrip, and a reportedly cash-strapped team like Bill Davis.

This alliance will produce…..because it must.

The Open Wheel Invasion Will Be Inconsequential- If the conclusion of the recently concluded season is any indication, there will be many struggles ahead for open-wheel drivers converting to NASCAR. Of the group, I really only see Sam Hornish enjoying any great success as he has the backing of a top team like Penske.

Dario Franchitti may be enjoy some success as he has the guidance of another former Indy car driver (Juan Pablo Montoya) at Chip Ganassi at draw from. As much as I like Jacques Villanueve and Patrick Carpentier, I think they will have equipment and team related issues to deal with on top of a learning curve.

The Hendrick Dominance Will End- Though I expect wins from the four car team at Hendrick, I think the other teams will catch up to HMS. Jack Roush racer Matt Kenseth looked VERY good at the end of 2007 and Carl Edwards also enjoyed a stellar, if uneven 2007 campaign. Ray Evernham’s group will also improve. His partnership with Gillette will enable the former Jeff Gordon Crew Chief to focus on what does best: work on building a winning car. This means good things for Kasey Kahne, Elliott Sadler and Patrick Carpentier.

The Chase?- I predict these guys will make the chase (in no particular order): Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, Kasey Kahne, Kurt Busch, Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards, Clint Bowyer, Tony Stewart, Ryan Newman, Kevin Harvick and Juan Pablo Montoya will ALL make the Big Twelve.

Yes- Jeff Gordon will not make the Chase, though he will win 2-3 races.

If I had to hazard a guess for a champion? It will come down to the younger Busch, Junior, Stewart or maybe even Edwards or Bowyer.

O.K.- I’ll go out on a limb here- Tony Stewart will be the 2008 Sprint Cup Champion.

Now I’ve done it. So much for playing it safe.